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On May 9, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.498 million mt of steel in April 2026, up 363,000 mt MoM, a 4.0% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to April totaled 34.214 million mt, down 9.7% YoY. In April 2026, China imported 465,000 mt of steel, down 47,000 mt MoM, a 9.2% decrease MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to April totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY. China's Steel Exports Continued to Increase MoM in April According to SMM's April export schedule survey, HRC export plans for the month were 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from actual exports in March, an 8.5% increase MoM. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that as production gradually resumed in March and ex-China demand recovered somewhat, combined with the semi-finished products gap caused by the US-Iran conflict, China leveraged its perfect price advantage and superior geographical location to effectively capture Southeast Asian semi-finished products import demand. This led to export orders increasing by over 30% MoM in March. However, since the incremental data was mostly semi-finished products, the impact may become more apparent when the late-month product-specific data is released. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, from January to March, China's cumulative steel imports totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY; net steel exports reached 32.41 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to S&P Global data, the global manufacturing PMI in April 2026 was 52.6%, up 1.3 percentage points MoM, operating above 50% for 13 consecutive months. The US was in strong expansion territory, and other European and American countries were also in expansion territory. In April, China's manufacturing new export orders index was 50.3%, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, finally returning to expansion territory after 24 months. World Steel Association monitoring data showed that global crude steel production in March 2026 fell 4.2% YoY to 159.9 million mt. China's production pullback was mainly driven by steel mills proactively cutting production as profits were squeezed. Excluding China, global production in other regions also declined 0.55% MoM, with significant divergence in production schedule pace across regions. In markets outside China, India maintained high production schedules, boosted by fiscal year-end target sprints, up 9.4% YoY. In contrast, the Middle East (particularly Iran) saw production plunge 33.5% YoY. The continued contraction in Middle Eastern production has created structural opportunities for China's steel exports, particularly semi-finished products exports. As of May 8, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $507/mt, $640/mt, and $525/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $507/mt. Currently, China's HRC export prices were -$73/mt, -$133/mt, and -$18/mt compared to these countries respectively. The price spread advantage showed no significant change MoM. Overall, China's steel export price advantage remains significant. Chart 1 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, HRC export plans for this month were 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual exports last month, a 23% increase MoM. According to SMM steel export order data, affected by holidays, steel export orders in April weakened slightly by 0.57% MoM from March. However, it was also learned that shipping to the Middle East is gradually recovering, with some cargo currently being unloaded at Fujairah Port in the UAE and then transported overland to other Middle Eastern countries. Slab orders destined for Southeast Asia also increased notably in April, with shipping dates mostly in May-June. Taking all factors into consideration, with the new export orders index returning to expansion territory, export price advantages remaining significant, and strong export order performance, SMM expects China's steel exports to continue increasing in May, with semi-finished products continuing to contribute the dominant force! Chart 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Volume Note: This article is original content of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, the content above shall not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to third parties in any other form, nor shall third parties be licensed to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will take legal measures to pursue infringement liability, including but not limited to demanding contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

Published: May 07, 2026 - 2:28 AM Updated: May 07, 2026 - 2:41 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is seeing some renewed momentum, with prices testing new resistance at $4,700 an ounce. While it still has some way to go to regain key price levels, one investment bank expects prices to eventually move higher. In her latest precious metals note, Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her call for gold prices to end the year around $5,200 an ounce, up roughly 10% from current prices. Gower added that she is not surprised gold has struggled in recent months despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing war in Iran. “With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower U.S. interest rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time,” said Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist. “ Gold ’s sensitivity to monetary policy has taken over as the key price driver. This has overshadowed its safe-haven status and reduced its effectiveness as a hedge against both geopolitical and inflation risks. Gold prices reflect not just the impact of a particular event but, more importantly, the policy response that follows.” High oil prices, driving inflation pressures, are forcing the Federal Reserve to reevaluate its easing policy stance and, as a result, markets have started to price out rate cuts this year. However, Morgan Stanley is still betting on at least one rate cut this year, which will support higher gold prices. “ Gold is likely to remain sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside,” Gower said. Morgan Stanley sees one rate cut in January followed by another rate cut in March 2027. “This should benefit gold, with ETF purchasing decisions particularly sensitive to policy signals and gold now realigning with real rates,” Gower said. As indicated by the current market volatility, gold ’s future depends heavily on what happens with the conflict in the Middle East. Overnight, President Donald Trump said that great progress is being made toward a lasting peace agreement. Analysts have said that if the crisis ends soon, the global economy should be able to recover from the current energy supply crisis. However, Gower added that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risks are for gold. “ Gold prices may suffer if markets begin to anticipate prolonged rate holds or even hikes,” Gower warned. “At the same time, upside in a resolution scenario could be limited, as already elevated prices may constrain demand from ETFs, central banks and consumers.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-06/morgan-stanley-sees-gold-prices-climbing-5200-despite-geopolitical