[SMM Tin Midday Review: Mine Shortage and Off-Season Clash with Macro Headwinds, SHFE Tin Midday Session Under Pressure] As of the noon close on August 1, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 264,940 yuan/mt, down 0.46% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low reached 262,910 yuan/mt, continuing the doldrums from the night session. The LME tin 3-month contract also moved lower, closing at $32,800/mt, hitting a new low in nearly a month.

SHFE tin prices dropped back slightly during the night session, while trading in the spot market recovered somewhat. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) US President Trump signed an executive order determining the "reciprocal tariff" rates for multiple countries and regions, with specific rates ranging from 10% to 41%. According to the order, Taiwan will be subject to a 20% "reciprocal tariff". The order also states that countries not listed will be subject to a unified 10% tariff rate. Additionally, if any country or region evades tariffs by transshipping through a third party, their goods will be subject to a 40% transshipment tax. (2) Tariffs: ① The White House: Trump will sign an executive order on July 31 to impose higher tariff rates on multiple countries that fail to reach a trade agreement by the August 1 deadline. ② US Treasury Secretary: The entire trade team is frustrated with India. ③ Malaysian Prime Minister: The tariff rates imposed by the US on Malaysian goods will be announced soon. ④ It is reported that India hopes to sign free trade agreements with several countries. ⑤ Trump stated that the tariff agreement between the US and Mexico will be extended by 90 days, meaning Mexico will continue to pay a 25% fentanyl tariff, a 25% automobile tariff, and 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: US Fed's Hawkish Remarks Weigh on Non-Ferrous Metals, Tin Prices Continue to Stay in the Doldrums] On July 31, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract fluctuated downward. At the close of trading at 15:00, it settled at 265,290 yuan/mt, down 2,450 yuan (a decline of 0.92%) from the previous trading day. The futures market fluctuated between 264,670 and 267,950 yuan/mt, with the settlement price fixed at 266,160 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 61,840 lots, while open interest decreased by 765 lots to 27,818 lots, indicating that some bulls exited the market to hedge risks. LME tin's decline widened to 1.68%, closing at $32,850/mt, with an intraday high of $33,450/mt.

With the deepening implementation of the "dual carbon" policy and the ongoing adjustment of the global tin resource supply landscape, price fluctuations of tin raw materials have intensified. An increasing number of tin processing enterprises are prioritizing the expansion of overseas raw material channels and optimizing supply chain layouts as their core strategic objectives.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE tin fluctuates under pressure, with weak supply and demand awaiting macro breakthrough] As of today's midday session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) was reported at 265,740 yuan/mt, down 0.75% from the previous day's settlement price. During the Asian trading session, the LME tin contract traded within the range of $33,140-$33,450/mt, down slightly by 0.19% from the previous day's closing price, maintaining a sideways consolidation pattern.

SHFE tin prices pulled back slightly during the night session. Powell remains hawkish [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Macro: (1) Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division reported profits far below expectations, reflecting the deepening crisis of the world's largest memory chip maker. Affected by US export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips and losses in its toll processing division, the key division's operating profit for the June quarter was 400 billion won (approximately $288 million), compared to analysts' average expectation of 2.73 trillion won. Additionally, the company's net profit announced on Thursday was 4.93 trillion won, lower than analysts' estimate of 6.37 trillion won. However, Samsung stated that due to gradually recovering demand, its wafer foundry division's operating losses are expected to narrow in the second half of the year. (2) Fed Chairman Powell said on Wednesday that the US Fed does not have room to consider government financing needs when formulating interest rate policies. Powell stated at a press conference after the FOMC meeting that the Fed has a mandate from Congress to control inflation while maintaining a strong job market as much as possible. He said that given this statutory responsibility, "we do not consider the fiscal needs of the federal government. No central bank in a developed economy would do so," and such an approach would also damage the Fed's credibility. The US government's interest expenditure last year was $1.1 trillion, and the cost of government debt management has more than doubled compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to the Fed maintaining high interest rates to reduce inflation. Trump once claimed that a 3% interest rate cut would save the US $1 trillion annually.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Fed Interest Rate Decision Approaching, Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts in SHFE Tin at 265,000 yuan/mt Support Level] As of July 30, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,870 yuan/mt, up 0.19% from the previous day, with a narrowed intraday amplitude of 1.2%. The reduced trading volume indicated caution from both longs and shorts. The LME tin contract was quoted at $33,645/mt, up 0.07%. Weak Electronics Industry Chain: Electronics terminals in South China entered the off-season, with operating rates of solder enterprises falling to low levels. After the installation rush in the PV sector ended, tin bar orders declined, and downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement.

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME tin inventory first decreased and then increased last week. On July 23, it fell to a new low of 1,690 mt in over two years, before rebounding somewhat. This week, inventory continued to accumulate, with the latest inventory level reaching 1,855 mt.