The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a high-level sideways trend, with spot tin trading willingness showing initial signs of rebound. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

February 4, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained high-level sideways movement, closing at 398,100 yuan/mt, up 6.64%.

Macro: (1) Intel (INTC.O) CEO Chen Liwu stated that the memory chip shortage in the computer industry is likely to persist for at least two years. He said on Tuesday, "To my knowledge, there are no mitigation measures in place yet." Chen noted that he spoke with two key figures in the memory field who told him, "It won't ease until 2028." Massive AI infrastructure construction has significantly increased demand for memory chips, reducing the supply available for traditional computers and smartphones. This has triggered chip shortages and price increases—which may dampen consumer willingness to purchase these products. Chen also pointed out that Nvidia, as a leading supplier of AI processors, will further drive up memory demand with its latest Rubin platform and next-generation products, and that AI will "consume a huge amount of memory." (2) Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng chaired a Party group meeting. The meeting emphasized strengthening overall planning and forward-looking layout. It called for improving technology foresight prediction and investigation mechanisms, exploring multiple technology pathways, and arranging future industries in tiers based on technological maturity and market application levels. It also urged orderly promotion of future industry pilot zone construction and guiding localities to develop according to local conditions and differentiated positioning. The meeting stressed enhancing the supply of future industry technology. It highlighted leveraging the advantages of the new-type nationwide system, deeply implementing national major S&T projects and key R&D programs, systematically deploying original and leading technology breakthroughs, and promoting breakthroughs in areas such as 6G, quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, brain-computer interface, and embodied AI. It also called for large-scale application demonstrations of new manufacturing technologies, products, and scenarios, using large-scale open application of scenarios to accelerate the maturation of cutting-edge technologies.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to gradually halt production for maintenance in February and enter the Chinese New Year holiday. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, pre-holiday restocking is basically over, and downstream enterprises will gradually begin production halts for rest.

Spot market: Spot transaction willingness showed initial signs of rebounding yesterday. However, current orders are mainly for inventory management and the release of previously accumulated rigid demand, with overall demand recovery still limited, reflecting more of a marginal improvement after the market had been under pressure from prolonged high prices.

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