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The iron ore market showed a lackluster performance on the spot today. The DCE main contract I2609 closed at 715 yuan/ton, down 3.31% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell by 15-20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On July 31, the combined daily HRC trading volume of sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 10,630 mt, down 50 mt, or 0.4% DoD, 11.34% YoY, and 32.72% Lunar YoY.

HRC prices weakened from the previous week, and overall transactions declined WoW. Supply side, the impact from rolling line maintenance decreased WoW, lifting overall HRC production. Demand side, apparent demand dropped WoW. Inventory side, total HRC inventory rose by 77,500 mt WoW, while mill inventory fell by 6,200 mt WoW. Social inventory, SMM statistics of 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) showed HRC social inventory at 4.4773 million mt, up 83,700 mt WoW (+1.90% WoW) and up 40.27 mt YoY on a calendar basis. By region, except the northeast that saw slight destocking, all other markets experienced inventory buildup, with east China showing relatively large fluctuations. Cost side, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, weakening cost support. Looking ahead, SMM expects hot metal production to bottom out and rebound, and with the US-Iran conflict pushing up ocean freight rates, iron ore prices may see a slight rebound. Meanwhile, a third round of coke price cuts still lingers, leaving overall cost support moderate. From a fundamental perspective, the HRC supply-demand imbalance continues to build, and combined with the PBoC Politburo meeting expectations falling short, there is no clear upward price catalyst. However, given that prices are already at relatively low levels, downside room is limited. HRC prices are expected to move sideways at the bottom next week, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,200-3,390 range.

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Consolidate on a Strong Note, Stainless Steel Month-End Spot High Prices See Sluggish Transactions According to SMM on July 31, SS futures consolidated on a strong note overall. Driven by successive pullbacks in the US dollar index, nonferrous metals futures strengthened across the board, and SS rose in tandem. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,635 yuan/mt. On the spot market, SS futures shot up at the morning open and then gradually pulled back in consolidation. Although the morning strength in futures drove spot prices higher, high-priced transactions were not smooth. Some traders offered concessions under month-end shipment pressure, and market transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was quoted at 14,710 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 310-710 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 25 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quote flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metal price trends. Stainless steel futures were under pressure and consolidated on a subdued note. This week, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its meeting, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged by the spillover of macro headwinds, SS futures...

Tata Steel's June-quarter results showed stronger realised prices and a richer product mix helped offset lower steel volumes, highlighting the growing role of value-added products and downstream integration in supporting margins beyond benchmark HRC prices.

[Turkey] Supported by rising billet costs, the Turkish long steel market held firm overall this week, though sluggish end-user demand prevented a broader price surge. In the rebar sector, after Karabük mill concluded large-volume billet transactions at higher prices, coupled with escalating fuel costs, mills in the Marmara region showed strong resistance to price cuts, pushing domestic rebar offers up to 580 USD/tonne EXW (excl. VAT). However, given tight buyer liquidity and earlier partial restocking, mainstream producers in Iskenderun and Izmir maintained quotes at 570 USD/tonne EXW, leaving export offers steady at 575 USD/tonne FOB amid subdued trading. In the wire rod market, buoyed by domestic price hikes from major producers, Turkish wire rod export quotes advanced in tandem to 585 USD/tonne FOB.

[Brazil] Brazilian imported flat steel prices remained largely stable this week, as surging freight rates effectively offset falling FOB offers from major origins. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) import prices held steady at 590 USD/tonne CFR and 700 USD/tonne CFR, respectively. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up shipping fuel costs, counteracting the FOB price cuts made by Vietnamese mills amid sluggish Asian demand and falling raw material costs. In the domestic market, pressured by weak downstream demand, tight credit, and accumulating inventories, Brazilian ex-works HRC prices held flat this week, with no price hikes planned for August. Additionally, Brazilian slab export sales slowed this week, as major exporters finalized internal transfers to their own mills in Europe and the Americas at 575–585 USD/tonne FOB.

Tata Steel has approved capital expenditure of 3.54 billion USD for its subsidiary Neelachal Ispat Nigam Limited in Odisha. The project will add 4.8 million tonnes of annual capacity, raising the mill’s total capacity to 6.3 million tonnes. Following the expansion, Tata Steel’s operational capacity in India will reach 27.4 million tonnes per year, supporting its longer-term target of 40 million tonnes and strengthening its presence in higher-margin branded long steel products.

[Vietnam] The Southeast Asian HRC price declined by 3 USD/tonne to 510 USD/tonne CFR. A 30,000-tonne cargo of Indian SAE1006 HRC was concluded at this level for September delivery, while Indonesian material was also offered at 510 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam. Vietnamese buyers remained cautious and were waiting for new monthly offers from a major domestic steelmaker.

[India] Ship-breaking HMS (80:20) prices in Alang, Gujarat, declined to 351 USD/tonne ex-yard. Persistent rainfall disrupted cutting operations and constrained processed scrap availability, while weaker billet and rebar prices reduced buying interest from secondary steelmakers. Procurement remained largely need-based, but tight supply limited the correction. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.