[SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On February 4, the most-traded SHFE tin contract sn2603 was affected by the earthquake in Myanmar during the previous night session, coupled with the market entering a consolidation phase after a sharp decline. It opened higher on the evening of the 3rd and maintained overall volatile trading until before the afternoon close, closing at 392,080 yuan/mt, up 5.03%. On the LME side, three-month LME tin was in the doldrums, temporarily quoted at $48,995/mt, down $1,300, a decline of 2.58%.

In terms of overseas supply, although the earthquake in Myanmar drew market attention, high-grade mining areas in the region continue to be affected by water level issues, leading to ongoing delays in production resumptions. The earthquake had limited impact on actual supply, and overall supply in Myanmar remains at a low but stable level.

Demand side, SHFE tin warrants fell for three consecutive days this week, with a cumulative decrease of over 1,000 mt, indicating a rebound in market willingness to pick up goods. Restocking demand and orders previously suppressed by high prices were gradually released as prices adjusted. However, current transactions are only at a normal to weak level, and end-users still face transmission pressure against the backdrop of overall strength in the metal sector, resulting in a slow pace of demand recovery. In addition, due to previous high prices inhibiting circulation, spot market supply was relatively tight, and structural contradictions became slightly apparent after marginal demand recovery.

Overall, tin prices entered a phased adjustment as macro support weakened and fundamentals recovered, with marginal demand improvement providing some support to prices. Going forward, close attention should be paid to inventory changes, spot market circulation, and the pace of post-holiday production resumptions. Tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating and consolidating in the short term, with the price center possibly shifting slightly lower. Enterprises in the industry chain are advised to operate cautiously and focus on risk management.