SMM's monthly metal production data is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals and help industry chain participants and investors gain a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

[SMM Analysis: Regional Supply of Lead Ingots Tightens, Social Inventory Drops to Near One-Month Low] SMM Dec 1: According to SMM, as of December 1, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions stood at 30,700 mt, down 6,300 mt from November 24 and 4,300 mt from November 27, reaching a near one-month low.

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $61.25/dmt, with a 11.8% WoW decrease. Zinc concentrate imported TC dropped significantly comparing with its previous level of over $110/dmt in October. Smelter's inventory levels dropped but they still have solid demand due to the need to prepare for their winter inventory. While competition for domestic material is getting intensified they switch to imported material as well, which lead to the recent drop. The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-135/dmt, unchanged WoW. Spot market remains severely tight with little signal for improvement.

[SMM Analysis: Undersupply of Raw Materials and Maintenance Lead to November Primary Lead Production Falling Short of Expectations] SMM November 28: China's primary lead production saw a slight increase in November 2025, up 0.49 percentage points MoM but down 1.61 percentage points YoY. Cumulative primary lead production from January to November 2025 rose 7.06 percentage points YoY.

Secondary lead production in November 2025 increased significantly, up 7.78% MoM and 16.83% YoY; secondary refined lead production rose 8.5% MoM and 10.13% YoY.

The GB/T 21181 series represents the first traceable generation and the only national-level product standard for China's "Secondary Lead and Lead Alloy Ingots." According to the National Standard Information Public Service Platform, its evolution is as follows: no independent national standard → GB/T 21181-2007 → GB/T 21181-2017 (current) → GB/T 21181-2025 (effective March 1, 2026).

According to customs data, China's refined lead exports in October 2025 totaled 2,098 mt, up 41.2% MoM and 11.25% YoY. Combined exports of refined lead and lead products from January to October reached 51,156 mt, up 41.56% YoY. On the import side, China imported 3,812 mt of refined lead and 14,477 mt of lead alloy in October. Total imports of refined lead and lead products in the first ten months amounted to 140,240 mt, down 28.97% YoY.

[SMM Analysis: Regional Tightness in Lead Ingot Supply and Social Inventory Continues to Decline] SMM November 24: According to SMM, as of November 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM stood at 37,000 mt, down 1,500 mt from November 17 and nearly 700 mt from November 20.

[SMM Analysis: Lead Ingot Social Inventory Accumulated as Expected Before Delivery, Subsequent Supply Sees Both Increases and Decreases] SMM Nov. 17: According to SMM, as of November 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions reached 38,600 mt, an increase of 5,900 mt from November 10 and 3,700 mt from November 13.

In October, multiple secondary lead smelters resumed production, leading to an increase in output, and this growth trend is expected to continue into November. However, the market is focused on whether raw material supply can support sustained production growth. SMM analysis indicates that raw material inventories at secondary lead smelters rose in October, driven by improved willingness to sell among recyclers and reduced digestion of previous smelter shutdowns. Overcapacity in secondary lead has resulted in an undersupply of waste lead-acid batteries, prompting smelters to gradually transition into multi-raw material producers and reduce their reliance on waste lead-acid batteries. Currently, arrivals of waste lead-acid batteries remain stable, which supports smelter production. However, secondary lead output is still influenced by smelters' production willingness (profitability). After the transition, smelters may increase primary lead production and reduce secondary refined lead output. The market needs to monitor smelter dynamics and changes in raw material supply and demand.