Spot orders for refined lead are sparse in quantity, and smelters have halted production for holidays due to loss pressures. [SMM Secondary Refined Lead Weekly Review]

SMM February 6:

Lead prices remained in the doldrums, with secondary lead smelters maintaining firm offers due to losses. The mainstream spot order ex-factory prices including tax narrowed their discount to the SMM #1 lead average price by 100 yuan/mt, shifting to a premium of 0–25 yuan/mt, while some suppliers halted offers and sales. Pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises was largely completed, with a few having already entered the holiday and completely suspended procurement. Next week, secondary lead enterprises are set to undergo concentrated production halts for the holiday, resulting in sluggish trading activity in the spot market. Offers for spot refined lead orders were sparse, with prices moving in line with the market.

As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, secondary lead smelters show strong willingness to halt production, while downstream battery producers, facing sluggish orders, have also scheduled holiday shutdowns with later production resumption dates. SMM expects that after the holiday, lead ingot consumption will remain weak and inventory buildup will be significant, leaving little upward momentum for lead prices. Secondary lead smelters will continue to face dual pressures from high costs and discounted shipments of finished products, with limited room for profit recovery. As of February 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -419 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-sized enterprises it was -630 yuan/mt (by-product revenues for tin and antimony are not included in the model).

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