[SMM Analysis]Prices of Secondary Aluminum Alloy Stop Falling and Stabilize, Supported by Both Costs and Demand

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Dovish Sentiment Resurfaces Within US Fed, Fundamental Support Helps SHFE Aluminum Stabilize After Decline]

Conclusion: The supply-demand imbalance has accumulated to a relatively limited extent, with relatively small room for further deterioration MoM from November. In the short term, focus on the most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract at 3,230–3,330. In December, coupled with rising macro expectations, steel prices may have room to rise before the meeting, but the upside is likely to be limited, mainly due to persistent destocking pressure for sheets & plates and relatively weak sales performance in the market, which may also constrain a smooth price increase.

This week, the domestic spot market for refined cobalt continued its slight upward trend, with the price center edging up and the fluctuation range remaining limited. On the supply side, raw material costs remained high, and smelters and suppliers maintained firm offers; traders slightly raised their offers following the rebound in futures. On the demand side, downstream industries maintained their just-in-time procurement pace, but after prices stabilized temporarily, some enterprises showed a slight increase in inquiries and purchase willingness, leading to a slight improvement in overall transactions compared to the previous period. Currently, the price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salts has returned to a reasonable range. If refined cobalt prices are to rise further, stronger momentum from the cobalt salts side will still be needed.

The cobalt intermediate products market continued its strong pattern this week, with the price center gradually rising. On the supply side, suppliers maintained a firm stance, with mainstream offers still anchored around $24.5-25.0/lb, leaving limited room for negotiation and establishing a clear bottom. On the demand side, buyers remained cautious; smelters faced continued losses as raw material costs exceeded cobalt salt selling prices, with the inversion margin not narrowing, leading to only sporadic inquiries for rigid demand. The market still exhibited a clear pattern of "price without market." Export permit procedures in the DRC have not yet been completed, and shipments of intermediate products remained stalled. Based on a three-month shipping period, the earliest arrival of raw materials in China would be in Q1 2026. During this period, the logic of structural tightness remains unchanged, providing continued support for intermediate product prices to rise.

This week, the cobalt sulphate market continued to stabilize. Supply side, supported by raw material costs, smelters maintained strong offers: MHP and scrap-derived cobalt sulphate held steady at 88,000–90,000 yuan/mt, while intermediate product cobalt sulphate quotations remained at 95,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises generally maintained just-in-time procurement pace, with some prioritizing the consumption of traders' low-priced old inventory while placing small trial orders for smelters' high-priced new material. The market remains in a critical phase of price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Only after downstream consumers gradually digest current prices and initiate a new round of concentrated procurement will upward room for cobalt salts reopen.

[Spot silicon metal prices remain deadlocked; supply and demand both expected to weaken in December]: Supply side, seasonal production cuts occurred in Sichuan and Yunnan regions at the end of November and early December, leading to a narrowing trend in total silicon metal supply. In December, both supply and demand are expected to weaken, with the theoretical inventory buildup in the industry further narrowing, and the supply-demand balance may show a tight balance. The short-term price of silicon metal is expected to maintain a fluctuating and deadlocked trend. Next week, silicone monomer enterprises will jointly cut production to hold prices firm. On one hand, silicone production cuts will lead to a contraction in consumption of silicon metal, creating a bearish sentiment; on the other hand, the production cuts may drive a slight rebound in DMC prices, and the transmission of profits along the industry chain could stimulate a bullish sentiment in the silicon metal market. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts will focus on changes in capital sentiment.