[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamentals in a Tug-of-War, SHFE Aluminum to Fluctuate at Highs in Short Term] Macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts intensified, coupled with China's policy efforts to stimulate domestic demand, creating an overall bullish sentiment that may boost aluminum consumption prospects. However, the transmission of domestic policy support to actual consumption still requires time. Fundamentals-wise, supply side saw minor growth in operating capacity as some replacement capacities came online, with production edging up slightly. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rebound in September. Cost side, weekly total aluminum production costs showed minimal changes, with industry profits remaining high. Demand side remains the core focus for the market ahead. As the September-October peak season approaches, downstream operating rates showed stronger recovery signs last week, with aluminum extrusion and plate/sheet, strip and foil sectors posting notable increases. Entering early September, consumption only exhibits marginal improvement, and effective inventory destocking still needs time to materialize. However, current total inventories remain low, and some secondary aluminum enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi provinces have received notices on the termination of tax rebate policies, posing risks of lower capacity utilization rates for scrap utilization enterprises, which may support primary aluminum consumption. Aluminum prices during the traditional September peak season are more likely to rise than fall overall, though upside resistance persists. For prices to effectively break through the key 21,000 yuan/mt resistance level, confirmation is needed through the realization of peak season consumption expectations and sustained strength in downstream operating rates, supported by a subsequent domestic aluminum ingot destocking inflection point.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,986.5/mt, fluctuated downward initially to touch a low of $9,934/mt, then rose continuously to reach a high of $10,006.5/mt during the session, and finally closed at $9,974/mt, down 0.39%, with trading volume at 21,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened and touched a low of 80,000 yuan/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward to reach a high of 80,430 yuan/mt, jumped initially and then pulled back, and finally closed at 80,260 yuan/mt, up 0.1%, with trading volume at 26,000 lots and open interest at 191,000 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise, LME Zinc Hits Near 5-Month High] Overnight, the LME zinc contract recorded a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with various moving averages providing support below. Overnight US employment data came in weak, boosting market expectations for an interest rate cut...

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996/mt, fluctuated rangebound with weak performance during the Asian session, then rallied to $2,007/mt during the European session. However, it erased all gains and plunged due to increased bearish positions, hitting a low of $1,992/mt before closing at $1,994.5/mt, down 0.2%.

Supported by rising cost change and producers' willingness, cell prices are expected to remain above the average cash cost level throughout Q3, with limited room for decline.