[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamentals Intertwined, Aluminum Prices Hold Up Well in the Short Term] Overall, on the macro side, PBOC's Q2 2025 monetary policy report emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose policy, focusing on price rebound and supply-demand balance; the US Trump administration announced an expansion of the 50% tariff range on steel and aluminum imports. Amidst the off-season atmosphere, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs, with consumption recovery still relatively weak. Given the continued ample supply, inventory buildup is expected to persist in the short term. In summary, domestic and overseas macro tailwinds, coupled with potential risks in primary aluminum supply, keep aluminum prices holding up well. However, under the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant, and after positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices may face the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment.

[SMMS Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut Heat Up, Supporting Copper Prices] On August 15, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2508 contract for #1 copper cathode were quoted at a premium of 120-240 yuan/mt, with an average quote of 180 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt MoM. Looking ahead to this week, as we enter the SHFE copper 2509 contract, the current price spread between futures contracts is relatively small, and it is expected that spot premiums will still be quoted around 100 yuan/mt...

[smm morning meeting summary: us government negotiates with intel for stake in the company, tin prices expected to maintain fluctuating trend] last week, on the international macro front, the us government negotiated with intel to take a stake in the company, aiming to boost its domestic manufacturing, which could impact the global chip supply chain. additionally, us fed officials indicated that a significant interest rate cut next month might not be appropriate, leading to a cooling of market expectations for a rate cut. domestically, the tin ore market showed a weak supply and demand pattern. in terms of supply, tin ore supplies tightened in major production areas like yunnan, with some smelters planning maintenance or production cuts in august, providing some support to the supply side. on the demand side, after the installation rush in the pv sector, orders for tin bars in east china declined, while electronic end-users in south china entered the off-season. coupled with high tin prices, there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only maintaining essential needs. other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals saw stable demand without any unexpected growth. spot market transactions were sluggish, with downstream solder companies being cautious in their purchases. traders attempted to refuse to budge on prices, but acceptance of higher prices was low, resulting in poor overall market transactions. overall, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a fluctuating trend this week. investors should closely monitor developments in domestic and overseas markets as well as policy changes, and operate with caution...

I. Core Raw Material Cost Proportion: Magnetic Material Dominates, Metal Materials Synergize

This week, the total inventory of rebar was 5.5104 million mt, increasing by 276,200 mt WoW, with a WoW growth rate of 5.28% (previous value: +1.97%). Compared to the same period of the lunar calendar last year, it decreased by 550,200 mt, with a decrease rate of 9.08% (previous value: -18.51%).

New Round of RKAB Approval in October for Upcoming 2026? NPI Prices Keep Rising

The share of the investigated products exported to Japan in China's total exports initially rose before declining, but the overall proportion remained relatively small. As of the first six months of 2025, the ratio was just 2%, down YoY from 2024. According to customs data, China exported 127,100 mt of the investigated products to Japan in the first half of 2025, having a relatively limited impact on China's total exports of these products. In an extreme scenario, this could lead to a decline of 127,100 mt in China's total exports in 2026.   Data shows that as exports of the investigated products to Japan declined in 2025, Japan's ranking among export destinations dropped from 7th in 2024 to 12th. Meanwhile, countries such as Israel, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq moved up in the rankings. This indicates that Chinese exporters are actively diversifying risks by exploring new markets amid trade uncertainties.  

This week, the overall operating rate of China's downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises rose by 0.8 percentage points MoM to 59.5%, indicating a mild market recovery. In specific segments, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage points to 56.6%, with a notable increase in primary aluminum consumption by top-tier enterprises. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip rose by 1.0 percentage points to 65.0%, driven by stockpiling orders for can stock, automotive sheets, and other peak-season products. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%, as the accelerated power grid construction cycle boosted terminal cargo pick-up. The operating rate of aluminum extrusion slightly rose by 1.0 percentage points to 50.5%, with automotive and PV orders maintaining growth, while construction extrusions remained sluggish. The operating rate of aluminum foil rebounded by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%, mainly driven by the restart of air-conditioner foil production lines and the recovery of decorative foil demand. The operating rate of secondary aluminum slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0%, as the off-season and ongoing losses continued to exert pressure, and policy impacts forced producers to cut production. It is expected that the aluminum wire and cable, aluminum plate/sheet and strip sectors will continue their upward momentum in late August, while the approaching traditional peak season of "September-October peak season" may further boost demand for aluminum foil and aluminum extrusion.