This week, the total inventory of rebar was 5.5104 million mt, increasing by 276,200 mt WoW, with a WoW growth rate of 5.28% (previous value: +1.97%). Compared to the same period of the lunar calendar last year, it decreased by 550,200 mt, with a decrease rate of 9.08% (previous value: -18.51%).

Today, the DCE iron ore futures market fluctuated, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 776, down 1.08% from yesterday. Traders sold their goods according to market conditions; steel mills mainly purchased as needed, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was average.

New Round of RKAB Approval in October for Upcoming 2026? NPI Prices Keep Rising

The share of the investigated products exported to Japan in China's total exports initially rose before declining, but the overall proportion remained relatively small. As of the first six months of 2025, the ratio was just 2%, down YoY from 2024. According to customs data, China exported 127,100 mt of the investigated products to Japan in the first half of 2025, having a relatively limited impact on China's total exports of these products. In an extreme scenario, this could lead to a decline of 127,100 mt in China's total exports in 2026.   Data shows that as exports of the investigated products to Japan declined in 2025, Japan's ranking among export destinations dropped from 7th in 2024 to 12th. Meanwhile, countries such as Israel, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq moved up in the rankings. This indicates that Chinese exporters are actively diversifying risks by exploring new markets amid trade uncertainties.  

This week, the overall operating rate of China's downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises rose by 0.8 percentage points MoM to 59.5%, indicating a mild market recovery. In specific segments, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage points to 56.6%, with a notable increase in primary aluminum consumption by top-tier enterprises. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip rose by 1.0 percentage points to 65.0%, driven by stockpiling orders for can stock, automotive sheets, and other peak-season products. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%, as the accelerated power grid construction cycle boosted terminal cargo pick-up. The operating rate of aluminum extrusion slightly rose by 1.0 percentage points to 50.5%, with automotive and PV orders maintaining growth, while construction extrusions remained sluggish. The operating rate of aluminum foil rebounded by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%, mainly driven by the restart of air-conditioner foil production lines and the recovery of decorative foil demand. The operating rate of secondary aluminum slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0%, as the off-season and ongoing losses continued to exert pressure, and policy impacts forced producers to cut production. It is expected that the aluminum wire and cable, aluminum plate/sheet and strip sectors will continue their upward momentum in late August, while the approaching traditional peak season of "September-October peak season" may further boost demand for aluminum foil and aluminum extrusion.

[SMM Analysis]Tightening supply drives prices up, and the price difference between primary metal and scrap continues to narrow

Today, Dalian iron ore futures held up well during the session but dived at the close. The most-traded contract I2601 eventually closed at 795, unchanged from yesterday. Traders' willingness to sell was moderate; steel mills restocked on demand.