[SMM Data: In late June, casting ingot production increased in some regions, and high downstream inventory in July forced the proportion of liquid aluminum to pull back] SMM reported on June 30: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in June 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.57% YoY and decreased by 3.23% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters in June saw a slight MoM fluctuation. SMM learned that the second-phase replacement of aluminum smelters in Shandong-Yunnan began at month-end, requiring production cuts at the original plants and new plant startups only after the replacement capacity passed inspections. The proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters continued to rise in June, increasing by 0.1 percentage points MoM to 75.8%, with a smaller increase than expected at the beginning of the month, mainly due to high downstream alloy inventory and increased casting ingot production at aluminum plants in some regions. It is expected that the proportion of liquid aluminum will show a downward trend in July. Based on SMM's data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, it is estimated that domestic aluminum casting ingot production in June decreased by 12.77% YoY to approximately 872,500 mt.

As of June 30, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 22,495 yuan/mt, up 270 yuan/mt month-on-month, but down 1.21%. In June, zinc prices initially declined before rebounding, hitting a low of 21,660 yuan/mt mid-month and then surging to a high of 22,570 yuan/mt by the end of the month. What will be the trend of zinc prices in July?

Today, DCE Iron Ore futures opened higher and moved downwards after a higher opening, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 715.5, up 0.21% for the day. Traders sold goods according to market conditions. At the beginning of the week, steel mills had a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with some purchasing as needed.

According to the SMM survey, as of June 30, the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets, which mainly produce construction materials, was 13.86%, down 7.71 percentage points from the end of May and 7.07 percentage points YoY.

In June, the spot and futures prices of HRC were in the doldrums on a MoM basis. The monthly average nationwide price of HRC from SMM was 3,173.1 yuan/mt, down 2.3% MoM; the monthly average price of the most-traded HRC futures contract in June was 3,099 yuan/mt, down 2.7% MoM, and the spot-futures price spread strengthened slightly MoM.

SMM Analysis：As 2025 reaches its halfway point, reviewing the first half of the year, the domestic zinc concentrate market maintained a loose supply situation. As of June 27, domestic zinc concentrate TCs rose from 1,950 yuan/mt (metal content) at the beginning of the year to 3,800 yuan/mt (metal content), while imported zinc concentrate TCs increased from -$20/dmt at the beginning of the year to $65.25/dmt, with both domestic and imported zinc concentrate TCs climbing steadily.....

According to SMM data, as of June 26, the weekly average domestic HRC production was 4.0768 million mt, showing a gradual upward trend, increasing slightly by 1.32% MoM from May. The increase in HRC production in June was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the impact of maintenance work at steel mills in north-east China, east China, north China, and western regions in June. In addition, the profit gap between rebar and HRC production was relatively small recently, leading some steel mills to adjust their pig iron production. As a result, HRC production in June increased slightly, but the increase was lower than expected.