Today, the DCE iron prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract I2605 closing at 760.5, down 0.33% compared to the previous trading day. Traders adjusted their sales strategies based on market conditions.

According to an SMM survey, SMM’s large-caliber HRC inventory in Ningbo stood at 327,900 mt as of 12.10, up 3,900 mt WoW.This week HRC prices fluctuated downward; spot prices fell 40-90 yuan/mt WoW, and overall market sentiment stayed weak. By the 12.12 afternoon close, the most-traded HRC 2605 contract settled at 3,232 yuan/mt.

Q1 2026 Japan MJP (main ports) aluminum ingot premium is expected to rebound from the low of $86/mt in Q4 2025, with the center rising. The core logic stems from tightening supply in Asia triggered by the restructuring of global aluminum trade flows, coupled with catalysts from European carbon policies and structural demand support. The latest offers from leading smelters have already indicated an upward trend, but restocking constraints due to the end of Japan's fiscal year may limit the extent of the rebound. Detailed analysis is as follows:

Nickel prices were in the doldrums this week, dominated by loose supply and demand. Although the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, nickel prices failed to get an effective boost and showed a clear downtrend. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract was relatively firm at the beginning of the week, but prices accelerated their pullback later due to weak domestic demand, closing at 115,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.84% WoW. LME nickel prices also weakened, falling consecutively and down 2.27% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 119,350 yuan/mt this week, down 1,850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 5,100 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were sluggish this week, with downstream consumers mainly stockpiling for rigid demand and adopting a wait-and-see stance.

According to SMM data on Dec 12, European APT CIF (Rotterdam) averaged $850/mtu, up $50 weekly, while ferrotungsten rose to $104.5/kg W. Following China’s price surge, severe material shortages and pre‑Christmas production halts have nearly stalled European trading. Traders expect APT quotes to surpass $1,000/mtu, already accepted by some buyers. In China, depleted mining quotas and output cuts pushed domestic APT to 555,000 yuan/ton. Export controls and lengthy approvals are limiting outbound flows, tightening domestic supply. With Europe’s structural shortage and strong demand unresolved, prices are likely to continue climbing.

SMM Analysis：In recent years, domestic galvanized sheet capacity has experienced a wave of new construction, with steel mills and galvanized sheet plants across various regions launching new galvanizing lines. According to incomplete statistics from SMM, galvanized sheet capacity additions from 2024 to 2028 will exceed 24 million mt, with additions in 2026-2028 alone accounting for 10 million mt. China's galvanized sheet capacity is still expanding rapidly. Why is this happening.......

[SMM Analysis]Cost Support and Weakening Marginal Demand Intertwined, ADC12 Price Fluctuates at Highs in the Short Term