[SMM Data: In late June, casting ingot production increased in some regions, and high downstream inventory in July forced the proportion of liquid aluminum to pull back] SMM reported on June 30: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in June 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.57% YoY and decreased by 3.23% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters in June saw a slight MoM fluctuation. SMM learned that the second-phase replacement of aluminum smelters in Shandong-Yunnan began at month-end, requiring production cuts at the original plants and new plant startups only after the replacement capacity passed inspections. The proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters continued to rise in June, increasing by 0.1 percentage points MoM to 75.8%, with a smaller increase than expected at the beginning of the month, mainly due to high downstream alloy inventory and increased casting ingot production at aluminum plants in some regions. It is expected that the proportion of liquid aluminum will show a downward trend in July. Based on SMM's data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, it is estimated that domestic aluminum casting ingot production in June decreased by 12.77% YoY to approximately 872,500 mt.

June 30 News:[SMM Analysis] According to SMM statistics, as of June 30, the inventory of aluminum ingots at domestic mainstream consumption areas stood at 468,000 mt, an increase of 5,000 mt from Thursday last week and an increase of 4,000 mt WoW from Monday last week.

【SMM Aluminum Downstream Analysis: Aluminum Processing Industry PMI Down 9.7% MoM in June — Pressure Across All Segments, Little Improvement Expected in Off-Season】June Aluminum Processing PMI Composite Index recorded 40.1%, falling below the boom-bust line, down 9.7 percentage points month-on-month and down 1.5% year-on-year.Downstream consumption entered the off-season, and the New Orders Index fell significantly, dragging down the performance of the composite index...

[SMM Analysis]June 13, 2025: The US Department of Commerce announced amendments to Annex 1 of Notice 10896, adding additional Section 232 steel-derived products, such as refrigerator-freezers, dryers, washing machines, dishwashers, stoves/ranges/ovens, kitchen food waste disposers, and welded wire shelving. These products were not previously subject to Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, but starting from June 23, 2025, a 50% tariff will be imposed on them.

Net Primary Aluminum Imports: In May 2025, domestic net primary aluminum imports were 190,700 mt, down 19.5% MoM and up 26.3% YoY. From January to May, cumulative domestic net primary aluminum imports were approximately 990,500 mt, down 8.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)