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Dollar, Oil, Gold, Base Metals, Ferrous Metals All Go Down, EIA Cuts Oil Price Forecast

iconMay 10, 2023 15:01
SHANGHAI, May 10 (SMM) - Crude oil: As of CST 11:34, WTI and Brent crude oil fell 0.75% and 0.74% respectively.

SHANGHAI, May 10 (SMM) - Crude oil: As of CST 11:34, WTI and Brent crude oil fell 0.75% and 0.74% respectively.

The decline came after industry data showed a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles, while the market awaited U.S. inflation data for April, which could provide direction for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on May 9 that pessimism about a weak global economy, inflation and continued turmoil in the banking industry overshadowed concerns about OPEC's production cuts, dragging down the outlook for crude oil, gasoline and diesel prices.

In its short-term energy outlook for May, the EIA lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2023 by US$6.36/barrel to US$78.65/barrel, much lower than its forecast of US$85/barrel in April. Similarly, the agency predicts that WTI crude oil will average $73.62 a barrel in 2023, $5.62 lower than last month's estimate.

In terms of the U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar index opened higher but moved lower during the session. As of CST 11:34, the U.S. dollar index was at 101.55, a slight drop of 0.09%. The market believes that there will be no immediate breakthrough in the US debt ceiling negotiations. The market is currently awaiting the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for April to be released on Wednesday. On Tuesday, New York Fed President Williams said that the inflation rate is still too high; before the June meeting, the Fed still needs to decide the next policy direction based on the latest economic data; if further interest rate hikes are really necessary, the Fed will take Action; a decision to raise rates will be made at each meeting.

Macro: The China General Chamber of Commerce recently released the China Retail Industry Prosperity Index for May, with a figure of 51.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the expansion territory for five consecutive months. The data show that the overall recovery of the retail industry is taking shape, and the business confidence of enterprises has further improved. Today will see the release of the annual rate of various RMB loan balances in China in April, the final value of the CPI annual rate in April in Germany, the annual rate of CPI in the United States in April without seasonal adjustment, and the annual rate of core CPI in the United States in April without seasonal adjustment. In addition, the EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report. Other important upcoming events include: European Central Bank executive member Schnabel's speech, US President Biden's alleged meeting with four leaders of the US Congress on the debt ceiling issue at the White House, the US House of Representatives panel's discussion on Silicon Valley Bank Hearings with Signature Banks.

For the metal market: Base metals on the SHFE generally fell. Only SHFE lead rose 0.24%. SHFE nickel fell 2.97%, tin dropped 2.41%, while SHFE copper, aluminum and zinc all fell within 0.4%.

Ferrous metals also mostly went down. Iron ore fell 0.14%. Rebar and HRC fell by 0.94% and 1.4% respectively. Stainless steel fell 0.35%. Coking coal fell 2.9%, and coke fell 2.07%.

As of CST 11:34, LME base metals mostly went down. LME lead fell 0.42%. LME aluminum, nickel, tin and zinc all fell within 0.4%. Only LME copper rose slightly by 0.03%.

In terms of precious metals, as of CST 11:34, COMEX precious metal futures all went down, COMEX gold fell 0.23%, and COMEX silver fell 0.15%.

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