Operating rates of aluminium smelters in major production provinces - Shandong (100%), Xinjiang (99.35%) and Inner Mongolia (95.76%) were pretty high in March. The combined installed aluminium capacity in these three provinces are 20.65 million mt, nearly half of China's total.
As of April 20, 930,000 mt of aluminium capacity was resumed in China while 212,000 mt was newly commissioned. The two combined are 1.14 million mt, which could almost counteract the 1.2 million mt of aluminium capacity that was cut earlier.
Once the dry season is over and power supply shortages are resolved, smelters in Yunnan could resume production rapidly.
It is estimated that another 2.63 million mt of aluminium capacity will be resumed later this year and 1.57 million mt of new capacity may be put into operation. As a consequence, capacity will probably shift to excess in the second quarter or second half of this year weighing aluminium prices down.
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