In March 2025, China's aluminum processing industry composite PMI rose to 61.6%, entering expansion territory, driven by policy dividends and seasonal peak effects that propelled structural recovery. Aluminum plate/strip (63.3%) and foil (69.3%) benefited from automotive/battery demand and old-for-new policies, though constrained by Indian anti-dumping measures and declining overseas orders. Architectural aluminum profile new orders exceeded 70%, while industrial profiles maintained expansion through new energy/solar demand, yet SMEs faced over 50% idle capacity due to technical bottlenecks. Aluminum cable production index surged to 73.05% as industry leader, driven by front-loaded ultra-high voltage orders and grid delivery schedules. Recycled aluminum PMI jumped 27.7 percentage points to 70.4%, but high aluminum prices suppressed procurement, revealing weak recovery in primary aluminum and inventory risks in recycled sectors. Although April's solar policy updates and grid peak season may sustain growth momentum, aluminum prices exceeding ¥21,000/ton could dampen purchasing enthusiasm. Coupled with export pressures and SME overcapacity, the industry's overall upside potential remains constrained.

[SMM Analysis] On March 24, 2025, the Ministry of Finance released the “Report on the Implementation of China's Fiscal Policy in 2024”, which explicitly proposed that in 2025, fiscal policy will implement a more forceful “green shift.” Under the framework of the “dual carbon” goals, the development of renewable energy and the promotion of new energy vehicles will be used as strategic fulcrums. This policy orientation not only reflects the intrinsic needs of China's high-quality economic development but also provides a Chinese solution for the global energy transition.

[SMM Analysis] On March 28, 2025, the General Office of the People's Government of Hunan Province officially issued the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption in Hunan Province" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which proposes ten specific actions aimed directly at expanding consumer capacity, improving consumption quality, and stabilizing economic growth.

[SMM Analysis] On February 9, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Feed-in Tariffs to Promote High-quality Development of New Energy" (NDRC Price [2025] No. 136, hereinafter referred to as "Circular No. 136"). The notice clearly stipulates the cancellation of the mandatory energy storage policy for new energy projects, marking the exit of the administrative energy storage mechanism, which has been in place for nearly eight years, from the historical stage. This policy aims to address industry pain points such as inefficient resource allocation, sharp increase in cost pressures for new energy enterprises, and the phenomenon of energy storage being "built but not used," and to promote the transition of energy storage from "policy-driven" to "economy-driven."

[SMM Analysis] According to the latest weekly data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China during the third week of March 2025 (March 17-23) reached ​55,000 units, representing a ​year-on-year (YoY) increase of 8%​ and a ​month-on-month (MoM) growth of 11%​.

Today, DCE Iron ore futures market fluctuated downward. The most-traded contract I2505 closed at 785.5, with a daily decline of 0.19%. Traders followed the market to sell goods. As the weekend approached and ore prices fell, steel mills were cautious and mainly observed, with poor purchase willingness.