According to the latest monthly survey data from SMM, the total production of aluminum rods nationwide in June 2025 was 390,000 mt, a decrease of 27,000 mt from May. After adjusting for the number of days in the month, the operating rate of aluminum rod plants in June was recorded at 60%, down 2% MoM and up 5% YoY. Overall, despite weak downstream purchasing, in-plant inventory was in the initial stage of inventory buildup, coupled with the task of liquid aluminum alloying, the aluminum rod supply side remained at highs in June. However, as the off-season atmosphere in the downstream sector became increasingly pronounced, with market purchasing significantly weakening, many plants announced production cuts and maintenance of equipment in mid-to-late June. It is expected that there will be a pullback in the aluminum rod supply side in July, and the pressure of market supply surplus may ease slightly.

According to SMM statistics, the composite operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry in June 2025 was 52.01%, down 3.4% MoM from May and 4.65% YoY from June last year. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the operating rate of large enterprises decreased by 2.4% MoM to 68.53%, that of medium-sized enterprises fell by 3.2 MoM to 45.76%, and that of small enterprises decreased by 10.2% MoM to 16.95%.

In the first half of the year (H1), tariff disputes persisted, jointly boosting domestic consumption from multiple perspectives such as capital and demand. However, due to time constraints, the implementation speed has been relatively slow. According to communication with SMM, the operating rates of galvanising producers in H1 2025 moved downwards after a higher opening. What were the reasons?

Recently, the Congolese mining company Buenassa S.A.R.L. announced a partnership with the government to jointly develop Congo’s first integrated copper-cobalt refining plant. According to the agreement, the government will act as a strategic shareholder, holding a 10% equity stake in the subsidiary Buenassa Resources S.A. This collaboration not only focuses on the value-added processing of local mineral resources but also emphasizes the development of a responsible supply chain and the assertion of Congo's sovereignty over key mineral sectors.

Indonesian RKAB quota approved by 364 million tons. Downstream companies are still under pressure

During this period, the tender pricing for July by benchmark downstream primary aluminum enterprises was finalized, and aluminum fluoride market prices continued to weaken. The tender price for benchmark enterprises in July decreased by 30 yuan/mt compared to the previous period, with a range of 9,600-9,670 yuan/mt. Currently, the aluminum fluoride market continues to exhibit a pattern of weak supply and demand: After entering July, prices of raw materials and finished products have declined simultaneously, with no improvement in corporate profitability. Most enterprises are experiencing losses, with operating rates remaining low and unlikely to improve in the short term. There is currently no positive support on the demand side, and the market is primarily transitioning with stable prices. Coupled with the expectation of declining raw material prices in July, it is anticipated that aluminum fluoride prices will continue to weaken next month.

Today, Dalian iron ore futures continued to hold up well, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 764, up 1.8% for the day, though the increase narrowed significantly. Traders followed the market trend.