This week (December 26-31, 2025), the solid-state battery sector achieved breakthroughs in capital, capacity, application, and standards. On the industry side, the signing of leading projects, the commissioning of GWh-level production lines, and the delivery of semi-solid-state car models signaled an acceleration in industrialisation. On the technical front, innovations such as sulphide electrolytes, composite functional layers, and sodium-ion batteries continued to emerge. On the policy front, the first national standard for automotive applications was initiated, laying a foundation for standardized industry development, and the industry chain ecosystem became increasingly well-established.

[SMM Analysis:The Paradox Behind the Stagnation of EU Internal Copper Scrap Trade and the Surge in Outflows]Market behavior is being further distorted by the anticipation of looming regulations. Starting in July 2025, the EU launched systematic customs monitoring of cross-border metal scrap movements. Stricter regulatory frameworks will take effect in May 2026, culminating in a total export ban to non-OECD countries by May 2027. This clear regulatory roadmap has triggered a "front-running" effect. To bypass future compliance costs, complex auditing processes, and the eventual ban, traders are accelerating liquidations during the current window of opportunity.

This week, the copper scrap market retreated after a rapid rise as copper prices hit a record high, with overall trading remaining sluggish. At the beginning of the week, copper prices climbed to 98,800 yuan/mt, an increase of 740 yuan/mt, while Guangdong bare bright copper prices followed the upward trend to 87,000 yuan/mt, marking a weekly gain of 1,400 yuan/mt. The price difference between primary metal and scrap once widened to 5,225 yuan/mt, theoretically giving secondary copper a significant economic advantage, but actual demand did not correspondingly release. Overseas markets came to a standstill due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, and trade in imported recycled copper raw materials was largely suspended.

Against the backdrop of the US continuing to strengthen its “supply security” and “critical minerals” policy framework, base metals with high import dependency have increasingly come under market scrutiny. Historically, similar logic has already materialised under Section 232 in steel, aluminium and selected key metals. Within this context, zinc has been persistently viewed by the market as a potential candidate for closer policy attention.

Customs data shows that in November 2025, China's spodumene imports reached 729,000 physical tons, a month-on-month increase of 12%, equivalent to approximately 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) based on SMM's statistical calculations after accounting for average grade and moisture content.

A Panoramic View of the Global Lithium Ore Market from 2025 to 2026: From Divergence to Rebalancing

In the first half of 2025, factors such as concentrated pre-holiday (Chinese New Year) restocking by downstream consumers, an increase in tolling volumes, and tepid spot market demand collectively led to an overall weak willingness for spot purchases in the market.

Secondary lead production fell in December 2025, down 5.03% MoM but up 10.3% YoY. Secondary refined lead production dropped 9.33% MoM and increased 0.84% YoY.