[SMM Analysis: Review of Domestic Aluminum Prices in H1 2025: "Unexpected Events" Frequently Occur, Aluminum Prices Remain Resilient]Under the influence of frequent "unexpected events" in both macro and fundamental aspects, aluminum prices fluctuated more severely in the first half of 2025. In Q1, the domestic fundamental situation was better than the off-season performance in previous years, providing support for aluminum futures and spot prices. In Q2, the Sino-US tariff battle intensified, causing aluminum futures and spot prices to plummet. However, upon reviewing the trend, it can be seen that after the market sentiment was digested, aluminum prices rebounded rapidly, demonstrating resilience. Additionally, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the off-season from May to June decreased unexpectedly, leading aluminum futures and spot prices to rise strongly during the off-season, with outstanding performance. Overall, the center of aluminum prices in H1 2025 showed a trend of oscillating upward. The average spot aluminum price in H1 2025 was around 20,318 yuan/mt, up 2.6% from H1 2024.

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $73.75/dmt, with a 10.94% WoW increase. The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-55/dmt, flat from the previous week's figure......

With silver hitting decade-highs since 2012: ◼ Short-term: Position squaring by longs has intensified bull-bear battles, raising correction risks ◼ Medium-term: Structural support remains from:Tight physical supply (global inventory drawdowns)  and  ustained industrial demand (8%+ annual PV sector growth)

Marex Financial Products has recently launched a structured "cash-and-carry" note linked to cobalt, marking a significant step forward in the financial innovation of commodity markets. This is not only Marex’s first structured yield product based on cobalt—a critical raw material—but also a testament to its integrated capabilities across physical asset acquisition, risk management, and financial product structuring.

Ghana's government is preparing to renegotiate terms of the Ewoyaa lithium mining agreement after a precipitous drop in global lithium prices has jeopardized the project's economic feasibility.

This week's magnesium market maintained a weak supply-demand balance, with prices moving in a narrow range. The mainstream 90% magnesium ingot price settled at RMB 16,300/ton, showing a dip-and-rebound pattern during the week as producers defended prices amid low inventories. Magnesium alloy prices ranged between RMB 17,900-18,000/ton while magnesium powder traded at RMB 17,550/ton, both tracking the downward trend of raw materials with tepid market activity. Dolomite prices remained stable with sufficient inventory at major production bases and reduced freight costs easing cost pressures. Domestic buying was mainly need-based, while export demand saw improved purchasing from Japan/Korea but continued European hesitation. The market is expected to maintain this range-bound pattern in the near term.

According to the SMM survey, the large-caliber inventory of SMM Ningbo HRC this week was 245,400 mt (as of July 16), a decrease of 11,100 mt WoW.This week, HRC prices fluctuated upward, with spot prices rising by 40-60 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. The futures market surged too rapidly, with spot prices and the intensity of end-use demand release remaining at a moderate level, and overall transactions were relatively stable. As of the afternoon close on July 18, the most-traded HRC 2510 futures contract closed at 3,310 yuan/mt.

Huge Amount of RKAB Quota Might Increase the Supply? Nickel Ore Prices Likely to Fall. Profit Margins of Smelters Remain Negative

Today, DCE iron ore futures jumped initially and then pulled back, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 785, up 0.38% for the day. Traders were highly motivated to sell.