SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Strong Macro Risk Aversion Sentiment, SHFE Aluminum Pulls Back in Night Session Macro side, due to the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff policy to the US economy, the US dollar index maintained a downward trend throughout the day, eventually closing down 0.37%. Although the US economic growth in Q4 last year was faster than previously expected, investors were more concerned about the new auto tariffs announced by Trump, and market risk aversion sentiment dominated, leading to a pullback in SHFE aluminum in the night session. The domestic macro favorable tone remains unchanged. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an stated that fiscal policy in 2025 will be more proactive, with continuous and stronger efforts. Deputy Governor of the Central Bank Xuan Changneng mentioned that RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be implemented based on domestic and overseas economic and financial conditions.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (March 24-27, 2025) are as follows......

The US Fed continues to maintain a "moderately restrictive" monetary policy, with downstream enterprises experiencing a YoY decline in order volumes. [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Richmond Fed President Barkin recently stated that the US Fed's stance of maintaining a "moderately restrictive" monetary policy is particularly suitable in addressing the evolving economic environment and policy uncertainties. He noted that the US economy faces significant challenges, with policymakers operating in a low-visibility scenario where the wait-and-see sentiment among businesses and consumers is becoming increasingly evident, potentially dampening market confidence. Barkin likened the current economic situation to "driving in dense fog with zero visibility and hazard lights on," highlighting the complexity of policy-making amidst uncertainty and rapid changes. His remarks touched on the potential inflationary impact of recent trade policies, with uncertain tariff levels and reactions further clouding the economic outlook. These changes have led businesses to become more conservative in capital expenditures and hiring plans. During the night session, SHFE tin prices maintained a fluctuating trend, dipping slightly before returning to around 281,000 yuan/mt. In the tin ingot spot market, yesterday's trading remained sluggish, with most traders reporting only scattered transactions and a few managing to trade around one truckload. Downstream and end-user enterprises reported that current order volumes are relatively weak, down 10%-15% compared to the same period in previous years, with increasing procurement difficulties and thin processing fee margins.

Flat's 2024 revenue was 18.683 billion yuan, down 13.2% YoY, while net profit was 1.007 billion yuan, down 63.52% YoY. In H1, cumulative net profit reached nearly 1.5 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of 38%. However, in Q3 and Q4, the company incurred losses of 203 million yuan and 289 million yuan, respectively. As of December 31, 2024, Flat's total production capacity in operation was 19,400 mt/day.

【SMM Zinc Morning Comment】US initial jobless claims were lower than expected. The Premier of Ontario, Canada, stated that the US will grant full or partial tariff exemptions for Canadian automobiles. The EU plans to target US service exports, including major tech companies. The South Korean government will announce emergency measures for automakers in April. Brazilian President Lula announced that retaliatory tariffs will be imposed on US products. Two departments: The offshore trade stamp duty preferential policy will continue. The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank: RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be implemented based on domestic and overseas economic and financial conditions.

The Job Market Remains Resilient as LME Zinc Fluctuates Downward. Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,954.5/mt, initially fluctuating around the daily average line, reaching a high of $2,958.5/mt. As European trading hours began, bulls reduced their positions in SHFE zinc, causing it to fluctuate downward below the daily average line. By the end of the session, it touched a low of $2,893/mt and closed at $2,898/mt, down $54/mt, a decrease of 1.83%. The trading volume increased to 86,561 lots, while the open interest decreased by 622 lots to 225,000 lots.