CITI Research Lowers Price Forecast for Nickel, Aluminium and Zinc in 2023-2024 But Bets on Higher Copper Prices

[SMM Analysis: Soaring Copper Prices Widen Price Difference Between Copper Cathode and Copper Scrap; Increased Spot Shipments from Suppliers, Arbitrage Purchases Dominate Transactions] This week (7/20-7/23), the copper scrap market operated under a triple framework of low copper cathode inventory and high premiums, ongoing compliance constraints from reverse invoicing, and a deepening high-temperature off-season. The SHFE copper closing price at 11:30 surged from 104,180 yuan/mt to 106,340 yuan/mt, before pulling back slightly to 106,170 yuan/mt at the end of the week, with a weekly gain of over 2,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the unilateral rise in copper cathode prices and the resilience of copper scrap in holding prices firm, the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap expanded from 3,218 yuan/mt to 4,545 yuan/mt, briefly reaching a high of 4,800 yuan/mt during the week. The inherent price resilience of copper scrap was the core feature of the supply side this week.....

According to Yingketong, Midea Air Conditioning officially announced in July 2026 that it will no longer initiate the traditional Cold Year Opening for the 2027 new cooling year, instead fully committing to a new strategy of “battling for retail and competing for end-users.” This decision marks a temporary halt to the near three-decade-old model of “collecting payments in the off-season and chasing volume in the peak season” within the air conditioning industry. The “Cold Year Opening” is a unique business rhythm in the air conditioning sector. Typically, starting from H2 (from July/August to October/November), producers hold openings in batches through policy incentives to attract channel merchants to make advance payments and stockpile goods. Then, in H1 of the following year, they concentrate shipments through various large-scale sales promotions, creating a cycle of “pushing inventory in the off-season and chasing volume in the peak season.” The specific measures for Midea Air Conditioning’s cancellation of the new Cold Year Opening include: no longer holding opening meetings that involve centralized channel payments, policy lock-in, and large-scale stockpiling; abolishing the practice of “mandatory advance payments to lock in annual policies”; and shifting to terminal replenishment based on actual demand, with full-cycle normalized policies implemented.

Zambia will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on August 13. The market widely expects that incumbent President Hichilema Hakainde will win reelection. For investors, the core concern is whether his second term can transform the economic stabilization after the sovereign debt default into robust, mining-led, job-creating growth.