[SMM Analysis: Copper Cathode Production in Full Swing Accelerates Copper Concentrate Inventory Depletion] With the increase in China's copper cathode capacity and the rise in production targets at various smelters, the inventory of copper concentrates, the primary raw material for copper cathode, has seen accelerated depletion. Although copper concentrate port inventory cannot fully represent the supply-demand balance of copper concentrates in China, SMM's data shows that the copper concentrate inventory at nine major ports in China dropped from a peak of 1.31 million mt (ore) at the end of last year to 610,000 mt (ore) by early March 2025. This represents a reduction of more than half within less than one quarter, a remarkable pace. Corroborating this is the record-high monthly production of copper cathode in China, as reported by SMM. Meanwhile, the smelting volume of secondary copper, another raw material for copper cathode, has not seen a corresponding increase. According to SMM, the monthly smelting volume of secondary copper is estimated to be around 160,000-170,000 mt (metal content). Furthermore, the implementation of domestic reverse invoicing policies and concerns over the impact of the China-US trade war on imported secondary copper supply have both exerted pressure on the supply side of secondary copper domestically and overseas.

[SMM Commentary: After the Turning Point in Copper Inventories, Can Copper Prices Continue to Rise Next Week?] Recently, a series of "disappointing" data released by the US and the repeated changes in US tariff policies have reignited market concerns over a slowdown in US economic growth. The US dollar index has continued to weaken, currently dropping to around 103.6. The rising expectations of US tariffs on copper once spurred a sharp increase in COMEX copper, which in turn drove up LME copper and SHFE copper. Domestically, a warmer macro outlook combined with a reduction in domestic copper inventories supported an overall increase in copper prices this week. As of 17:19 on March 7, LME copper fell by 0.59% to $9,676.5/mt, with a weekly gain of 3.4% so far. SHFE copper rose by 0.27% to 78,320 yuan/mt, with a weekly increase of 1.7%.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy said on Thursday that the Indonesian government has issued a regulation allowing mining companies to export unprocessed ore under force majeure circumstances. Indonesia banned the export of raw ore in 2023 to encourage companies to process metals domestically. However, some exemptions were made, including for miner PT Freeport Indonesia, which last year obtained an export permit for copper concentrates valid until the completion of maintenance work at its Manyar smelter. That permit expired at the end of last year. (Webstock Inc.)

[SMM Analysis]: According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in February was 70.28%, down 0.66 percentage points MoM and up 22.65 percentage points YoY.

[SMM Analysis: Narrowing Price Difference Between Primary Metal and Scrap Fails to Offset Weak Orders; February Copper Cathode Rod Operating Rate Declines MoM] According to SMM, the operating rate of copper cathode rod producers in February was 55.84%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM and 2.23 percentage points below the expected value. Based on the lunar calendar, due to differences in the span of the Chinese New Year, the operating rate of copper cathode rods rose 13.79 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 64.97%, medium-sized enterprises 40.99%, and small enterprises 49.22%.

[SMM Weekly Data on Copper Inventories in Major Regions] As of Thursday, March 6, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China decreased by 9,000 mt from Monday to 368,000 mt, down by 8,100 mt compared to last Thursday. This marks the first weekly destocking since the Chinese New Year, and we believe the inventory turning point has arrived.

[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Rebound, Marginal Recovery in Secondary Copper Raw Material Supply] During the week, US President Trump mentioned the possibility of imposing tariffs on imported copper cathode. Following the news, US copper cathode futures surged rapidly, driving up LME copper and SHFE copper prices. This week, copper futures prices rose by 1,400 yuan/mt, while Guangdong bare bright copper prices increased by 900 yuan/mt. On Thursday, copper prices quickly climbed to 78,400 yuan/mt, approaching the previous high of 78,400 yuan/mt. Secondary copper raw material suppliers took advantage of the high prices to sell off...

[SMM Analysis: Price Difference Between Copper Cathode Rod and Secondary Copper Rod Widens, Secondary Copper Rod Consumption Rebounds] According to SMM's survey data, the operating rate of secondary copper rod this week was 33.40%, down 0.27 percentage points WoW and 13.99 percentage points YoY. Meanwhile, the average price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod this week was 1,058 yuan/mt, up 189 yuan/mt WoW. In addition, the average discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 658 yuan/mt, expanding by 215 yuan/mt WoW...