Zambia Is Expected to Triple Copper Production by 2031; Overnight, Both LME Copper and SHFE Copper Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Thursday, March 12, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,999/mt, then its center moved lower to a low of $12,930/mt. It subsequently fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $13,083/mt, and finally closed at $13,049/mt, down 0.36. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, down 4,532 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 303,000 lots, down 358 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting long liquidation overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,100 yuan/mt and hit a low of 100,100 yuan/mt immediately after the opening. Its center then moved higher to a high of 101,430 yuan/mt and finally closed at 101,310 yuan/mt, down 0.22. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, down 42,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 191,000 lots, down 1,386 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting short covering overall.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 10 (Tuesday), Zambia's mining minister said the country was actively attracting global investors, including those from the US, aiming to more than triple copper production to 3 million mt by 2031. Zambia's copper production last year was 890,346 mt, falling short of its annual target of 1 million mt. Zambia is Africa's second-largest copper producer, behind only the DRC. Copper is a key material for EVs and renewable energy infrastructure and is critical to the transition to a low-carbon economy. Zambia's mining minister, Paul Kabuswe, said investment talks had expanded to multiple countries as part of a broader strategy to achieve the 2031 target. In addition to copper, Zambia also has abundant resources of cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, lithium, and rare earths.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 11, the SHFE copper 2603 contract fell before stabilizing and rebounding. It opened at 101,440 yuan/mt, then declined all the way after the opening to a low of 101,060 yuan/mt. Prices then stabilized and rebounded somewhat, fluctuating between 101,160 yuan/mt and 101,400 yuan/mt, and closed at 101,300 yuan/mt. The nearby-next Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 360 yuan/mt to 320 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the SHFE copper nearby-month contract showed a loss of 370 yuan/mt to 290 yuan/mt. The continued widening of the nearby-next Contango price spread between futures contracts reinforced suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse, driving a further tightening in available spot copper and providing strong support to spot premiums. Affected by this, suppliers showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm intraday, with firm quotes. Demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support to prices; supply side, although social inventory remained high, more than half of the cargo had been converted into warrants, and spot circulation remained tight. Shanghai added 1,759 mt of warrants yesterday, further exacerbating the tightness of available cargo. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums were expected to remain in premium territory today.
(2) Guangdong: On March 11, spot prices for Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt; a premium of 20 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 70 yuan/mt; and a discount of 40 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 70 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,335 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,210 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, falling inventory coupled with a still-wide price spread between futures contracts prompted suppliers to actively hold prices firm for shipments, driving spot premiums sharply higher.
(3) Imported copper: On March 11, the average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day; the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was also unchanged from the previous trading day, with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from mid-to-late March to early April.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on March 11, the futures closing price was 101,300 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were 45 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 11, copper scrap prices rose 100 yuan/mt MoM, the copper scrap selling sentiment index rose to 2.39, the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.4, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,235 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 770 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices pulled back rapidly late in the session, and copper scrap traders successively offered prices to secondary copper rod enterprises. To avoid unnecessary losses in raw material inventory caused by elevated raw material pricing and continued declines in copper prices, secondary copper rod enterprises suspended trader pricing afterward. Intraday transactions were average, and amid the fluctuating trend in copper prices, secondary copper rod enterprises purchased cautiously.
Prices: On the macro front, the US reported February CPI growth at 2.4% YoY, in line with market expectations. In addition, although Trump again declared that the war would end soon, uncertainty remained in the Middle East situation, and investors stayed alert to further escalation of the conflict. The US dollar index closed slightly higher, putting copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals front, supply side, domestic copper and imported cargo supply remained ample, while demand side, rising copper prices restrained procurement demand and slowed the pace of demand release. Overall, geopolitical risks have not dissipated, and copper prices are expected to continue to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]