The current global macro environment is complex and volatile, with intensified trade frictions and escalating geopolitical risks, exacerbating market concerns about global economic growth. Domestic "supply-side reform" and loose US dollar liquidity provide phased support for nickel prices in H2. However, short-term sentiment fluctuations have not altered the medium and long-term supply and demand logic. Global refined nickel capacity continues to expand in H2, with no significant production cuts yet observed. Demand-side recovery remains sluggish, the electroplating market is relatively stable, and alloy special steel demand has improved but with limited increments. Factors such as increased Indonesian production, tariff impacts, and weak demand still pose downside risks for nickel prices. Overall, it is expected that the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in nickel prices will intensify in H2, with the core fluctuation range being 115,000-128,000 yuan/mt.

The "anti-rat race" policy continues to stimulate a rebound in the commodity market.