[SMM Analysis:Social Inventory of Copper Cathode Records First Decline Recently, Initial Signs of Downstream Stockpiling Willingness?] Looking ahead to the market around the Chinese New Year, the "triple suppression" pattern of high inventory, wide price spreads between futures contracts, and deep discounts is expected to be difficult to reverse in the short term. Before the Chinese New Year: Wide price spreads amid high inventory will strengthen suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, thereby suppressing spot market liquidity and buying interest. Spot premiums/discounts lack momentum for recovery and are expected to remain in a discount structure. If smelters engage in distress selling, discounts may widen further. After the Chinese New Year: The key validation point for the market will be the extent and speed of post-holiday inventory buildup. If significant inventory accumulation occurs, it will reinforce the perception of weak demand and may force spot premiums/discounts to move even lower.

From Q4 2025 to early 2026, the global ESS industry chain's upstream raw material market underwent a significant price restructuring. The current battery cell market is in a period of intense competition between "losses" and "delayed price transmission." As battery cell manufacturers generally raised their quotations, the subsequent transaction price levels may continue to rise.

In 2025, SMM expects global secondary refined lead production to exceed 8.3 million mt, accounting for 66% of the total global refined lead supply. Globally, secondary lead has surpassed primary lead as the main supply source, which is the most significant structural feature of the global lead industry.

The 2025 data signals that the overseas growth engine has fundamentally shifted toward emerging industrial hubs. Future competition will no longer be determined solely by sheer volume but by the technological green content of every tonne produced. As we move into 2026, India and the Middle East are expected to lead global capacity additions, while the EU and North America will remain focused on capital reallocation toward scrap-based Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production to meet intensifying decarbonization mandates.

Soaring silver prices are accelerating technological transformation in the PV industry.

According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports (customs tariff codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) totaled 270,900 mt in December 2025, flat MoM from November but up 2.8% YoY. The cumulative export volume of aluminum plate/sheet and strip for the full year 2025 was approximately 3.0742 million mt, down 12% YoY.