SMM Lead Ingot Social Inventory: Regional Supply Reduction of Primary and Secondary Lead, Social Inventory Turns from Increase to Decrease SMM reported on March 24 that as of March 24, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 71,900 mt, an increase of over one hundred mt compared to March 17; a decrease of 2,100 mt compared to March 20.

At the beginning of the week, the SHFE lead 2503 contract completed delivery, and suppliers transferred to delivery warehouses, which was the main reason for the recent accumulation of social inventory.

With Trump signing an executive order to initiate a Section 232 investigation on copper, market expectations for future copper tariffs have been rising. Meanwhile, this potential tariff threat has also driven up COMEX copper prices, pushing US copper prices and the price spread between COMEX and LME to a periodic high. This not only boosted global copper prices but also led to changes in the recent flow of copper cathode. Against this backdrop, it has also impacted the export quotations of domestic copper cathode rods. Below is a detailed analysis:

Facing environmental controls and supply shortages, secondary lead smelters see a drop in operational rates. Scrap battery prices remain stable as collectors hold limited stock. High lead prices, driven by macroeconomic optimism and primary smelter maintenance, keep secondary smelters in profit. Yet, cautious battery company purchases and increased discounts may squeeze margins. April may bring widespread production cuts if weak battery consumption persists.

On February 24, 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt supplier, announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports to address the persistent decline in cobalt prices due to oversupply in the international market. The policy took effect on February 22 and is scheduled for a three-month review to assess its impact and decide on potential adjustments. Since its announcement, this policy has garnered worldwide attention and ignited enthusiasm in the cobalt product market. According to SMM prices, as of March 14, the prices of all cobalt products have seen significant increases. Specifically, the cumulative price increase for cobalt sulfate, cobalt chloride, and cobalt intermediates has exceeded 80%. Why Did This Ban Attract So Much Attention? .....

In March 2025, secondary lead enterprises resumed production at a rapid pace, with the weekly operating rate reaching 62.91%, a 1.5-year high. Lead prices rose as the US Dollar weakened and domestic policies supported the market. However, air pollution warnings in northern China led to smelter shutdowns, further driving up prices. Despite initial ample inventories, smelters now face declining raw material stocks due to increased production and off-season scrap battery supply. This has created a standoff between smelters and scrap dealers, with both sides awaiting market clarity.