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[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
Recently, news of tightening lithium battery copper foil supply has drawn attention from the industry and capital markets. Some worry that tight copper foil supply will immediately drag down battery capacity expansion and even affect end-user deliveries. In reality, however, the copper foil constraint will not materialize right away, and the real risk window may emerge next year. What is copper foil? Why is it so critical? Copper foil is the "conductive skeleton" of the lithium battery anode, an extremely thin copper film only a fraction of the thickness of a human hair. It accounts for a modest share of battery costs (about 10%-15%), but even slight quality fluctuations can affect battery yield and safety. More importantly, copper foil supply is not a case of "having capacity means having product"—a plant may plan annual production of 100,000 mt, but the volume that can actually pass battery maker certification and be supplied steadily is often discounted. The supply-demand gap does exist, but pressure is limited this year In 2026, China's lithium battery copper foil demand is about 1.37 million mt, while actual stable supply is about 1.35 million mt, leaving a gap of about 20,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 50 GWh of lithium battery cells). Against an estimated global lithium battery cell production of about 3,400 GWh in 2026, this figure is not large, and in the short term battery makers can still buffer through inventory, adding suppliers, and adjusting production schedules. Therefore, copper foil will not become a hard constraint on lithium battery production increases this year; the impact will be seen more in tight production schedules at leading suppliers, greater difficulty in placing last-minute orders, and longer delivery cycles for certain specifications. Looking further ahead, however, pressure will rise: the gap in 2027 is about 40,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 100 GWh of lithium battery cells), and it may continue to widen in 2028. Copper foil demand growth is outpacing supply growth, and the situation will tighten further over time. AI copper foil is "distracting" attention, but has not yet stolen the race Recently, AI servers and high-speed communications have been booming, and processing fees for high-end electronic copper foil have surged to 200,000-300,000 yuan/mt, nearly 10 times that of ordinary lithium battery copper foil. This will attract leading copper foil makers to shift capital and equipment toward high-end products, but such production lines have high technical barriers and long certification cycles, so they cannot be converted at scale in the short term. In other words, AI copper foil will not immediately crowd out lithium battery copper foil capacity, but it will raise the "opportunity cost" of lithium battery capacity expansion—when copper foil makers make new investments, they will prioritize the more profitable high-end electronic copper foil. Key judgment: this year can hold, next year depends on positioning The impact of copper foil shortages on the battery industry is progressive. Stage one (this year): inventory and flexible procurement can still hold. Battery makers generally have stockpiles and can also adjust through multiple suppliers, so short-term production increases will not be significantly constrained. Stage two (next year and beyond): if new capacity does not keep pace and long-term contracts are not locked in early, production may indeed be affected. New production line certification takes time, and once the gap widens, spot procurement will struggle to find stable supply sources, and certain specifications may see "capacity exists, but no spot cargo" situations. Stage three (long term): upstream and downstream will become deeply bound. CATL and partners such as Huike will jointly build 400,000 mt of copper foil capacity over the next three years, signaling that battery leaders are shifting from "annual tenders" to "direct participation in plant construction." In the future, battery makers wanting to secure supply will likely need to provide funds, orders, and joint R&D in advance. Conclusion The structural shortage of lithium battery copper foil is already established, but in the short term it will not significantly limit battery production increases, as enterprise inventory and procurement flexibility still provide buffer room. The real test will come in 2027 and beyond: if copper foil capacity expansion progress falls short of expectations and battery makers have not locked in long-term orders and capacity in advance, a tight balance of "orders but no materials" may emerge starting in H2 next year, thereby affecting production release. In summary, the copper foil supply constraint has not yet become the core contradiction this year, but it is shifting from an "option" to a "must-answer question." Battery makers that position long-term contracts and capacity binding in advance will gain a clear supply chain flexibility advantage next year.
Sep 16, 2026 15:18
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
[SMM Analysis: US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?] US refined copper tariff uncertainty is reshaping global copper flows. If tariffs proceed, a wider COMEX-LME spread could draw more cathode into the US and support scrap demand elsewhere. If delayed or cancelled, the spread may narrow and weaken scrap payabilities. However, low global scrap inventories and tight VAT-invoiced supply in China make a sharp correction unlikely.
Sep 11, 2026 16:56
 Solid-State Battery Weekly | Steady Progress — Cooling Hype, Stronger Efforts
Highlights: This week (Sep 4–10, 2026), in solid-state batteries, nine government departments included automotive solid-state batteries in the “15th Five-Year” special standards system; Xiamen Tungsten and Tinci advanced pilot production of lithium sulfide and electrolytes; Easpring and GEM shipped cathodes at ton-level; silicon-carbon anode projects expanded capacity; CATL said small-batch production is expected by 2027.
Sep 11, 2026 16:00
[SMM Analysis]Downstream Demand Improves Marginally, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Modest Gains in September
Monthly Review & Outlook: Downstream Demand Improves Marginally; Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Only Modest Gains in September August Price Review Source: SMM Non-oriented silicon steel prices remained generally weak in August. Prices of mainstream grades edged lower across the board, with both high-grade and medium-low grade products under pressure. The monthly average price of benchmark grade B50A800 fluctuated at a low level. Although the supply-demand gap narrowed slightly in August, supply remained relatively loose. Lacking strong support from downstream demand, prices had limited upward momentum. The market consolidated at low levels overall; declines slowed, yet no clear rebound emerged. Fundamental Analysis Source: SMM Domestic output of non-oriented silicon steel fell month-on-month in August, a notable drop from July, as steel mills proactively cut production schedules. By grade mix, medium-low grades accounted for 66%, high grades 19%, and new-energy grades rose to 15%. Compared with July, the share of medium-low grades declined while new-energy grades increased, and high-grade share stayed stable. Production capacity continued shifting toward high-end products. Production scheduling for September retains divergent features: medium-low grades will rebound to 69%, high grades fall to 18%, and new-energy grades dip slightly to 14%. Steel mills plan to raise output of medium-low grades in September while trimming the proportion of high-grade production. Overall, August production cuts eased supply pressure to some extent, yet the rebound in medium-low grade output in September reflects steel mills’ improved market expectations for the month. Source: Public data, SMM Output of major domestic home appliance categories fell seasonally in July, with production of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs retreating from earlier peaks. Monthly consumption of non-oriented silicon steel by the home appliance sector declined accordingly. By consumption breakdown, air conditioners represented 65% of silicon steel use in home appliances, making them the largest consumer; refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs accounted for 20%, 11% and 4% respectively. Total silicon steel consumption by home appliances dropped month-on-month in July, dragged down primarily by weaker air conditioner demand. China’s new-energy vehicle output stayed robust in July. Production of new-energy passenger and commercial vehicles maintained strong resilience, while output of conventional fuel vehicles remained relatively steady. The automotive sector is a core consumer of non-oriented silicon steel. In terms of consumption structure, new-energy passenger vehicles made up 75%, new-energy commercial vehicles 22%, and traditional vehicles only 3%. New-energy models have become the dominant source of automotive silicon steel consumption. Monthly silicon steel consumption by the auto sector edged up month-on-month in July. High production schedules for new-energy vehicles underpinned silicon steel demand and offset part of the home appliance demand slump. Nevertheless, incremental demand from automobiles was insufficient to fully counterbalance the decline in home appliances, leading to only limited overall improvement in downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel. September Price Outlook Looking ahead to September 2026, on the supply side, planned output of non-oriented silicon steel in China is set to rise, with growth concentrated in medium-low grades. For one thing, the traditional off-season is drawing to a close; downstream orders for home appliance and motor manufacturers are expected to pick up, boosting steel mills’ willingness to produce. For another, leading producers including Baowu lifted base prices by RMB 50 per tonne for September, showing clear intentions to prop up and raise prices. This is expected to restore steel mill margins and support production. On the demand side for home appliances: production continued slowing in August. Most manufacturers scheduled high-temperature shutdowns and equipment maintenance in early August. Orders and sales were mixed. Air conditioners and refrigerators saw weaker orders and sales due to sluggish end-market demand. Washing machines entered their peak season, yet demand fell short of expectations. For the automotive sector, market performance is projected to be weak early in the month and strong later. In early August, offline sales were hampered by high temperatures, typhoons and other weather disruptions. Demand started to release from mid-August onward. Multiple new models launched by leading new-energy original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were priced in line with consumer expectations, driving notable increases in store foot traffic and orders, marking a market recovery. On the cost side, September marks the traditional “Golden September” consumption peak. With hot and rainy weather abating, end-user project construction and downstream restocking demand are anticipated to improve marginally. Hot rolled coil prices are projected to trend higher in September. In summary, SMM forecasts that medium-low grade non-oriented silicon steel prices will trend upward amid volatility in September 2026, with moderate upside potential.
Sep 11, 2026 14:05

Latest News

Indonesian Nickel and Cobalt Prices Drop on September 17
According to SMM data, on September 17, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel fell by $267/mt Ni from the previous day, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt fell by $659/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $110/mt Ni.
7 hours ago
[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded on September 17 as the US Fed resumed rate hikes after a three-year hiatus
8 hours ago
[SMM Analysis] Nickel prices fell and procurement demand was weak, nickel salt prices declined this week
9 hours ago
Fed Unanimously Approves 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike, Signals More Increases This Year
US Fed September rate meeting: unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike, saying the move will support a more timely return of inflation to target; the 2026 dot plot shifted significantly higher, with 16 officials expecting additional hikes still needed this year
9 hours ago
[SMM Nickel Market Flash] Southern China Mill Buys 7,000 mt of High-Grade NPI at 1,050 yuan/mtu
According to SMM market research, a steel mill in southern China concluded a high-grade nickel pig iron deal yesterday at 1,050 yuan/mtu on a delivered basis. The cargo has nickel content above 11%, with a transaction volume of 7,000 mt and delivery scheduled for November.
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] India Pushes Back on EU FTA Steel Quotas Below Current Entitlements
Following the publication of detailed product-level allocations under the India-EU FTA, concerns have emerged that key steel quota allocations are below India's current entitlements under the EU's new steel import regime. While the FTA provides a total country-specific quota of 1.64 million mt, a product-by-product comparison reveals shortfalls: CRC quotas under the FTA stand at 218,658mt versus 269,974mt in June 2026; stainless bars and light sections at 79,278mt versus 92,556mt; and seamless stainless tubes and pipes at 13,140mt versus 15,328mt. The total FTA allocation is approximately 300,000mt below India's current entitlements. According to Reuters, the Indian steel industry is seeking 29–35% higher quotas across product categories and has submitted a note to India's trade ministry stating that "India's total guaranteed country-specific quota under the agreement is smaller than its current total entitlement, putting the country in an unfavorable position with regard to market access."
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Initiates Expiry Review on Cold-Rolled Stainless Steel from India and Indonesia
The European Commission has initiated an expiry review of anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from India and Indonesia, following a request submitted by EUROFER on June 29, 2026, on the grounds that expiry of the measures would likely result in the continuation or recurrence of dumping and injury to the EU industry. The review covers the period July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026, and must be completed within 12 months. Current AD duty rates stand at 10.0% and 35.3% for India, and 9.3%, 19.3%, and 20.2% for Indonesia. Products under review fall under CN codes 7219 31–7219 35, 7219 90, 7220 20, and 7220 90 series.
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Taiwan (PoC)'s Yusco & Tang Eng Report Stable Cumulative Revenue Growth Through August
Taiwan (PoC)'s Yusco achieved consolidated revenue of approximately NT$25.92 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 1.65% YoY, while Tang Eng Iron Works recorded cumulative eight-month consolidated revenue of NT$6.84 billion, rising 0.56% YoY. For August alone, Yusco posted NT$3.69 billion, up 8.9% MoM but down 6.83% YoY, while Tang Eng reported NT$669 million, falling 23.97% MoM and 27.6% YoY. Frequent upstream price adjustments contributed to modest revenue stabilization, though growth rates remained tempered by softer-than-expected market demand. Lower comparison bases from the prior year could support larger revenue gains for both producers in the second half.
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Vietnamese Stainless Steel Producers Contest AD Allegations at Taiwan (PoC)'s Trade Hearing
Vietnamese stainless steel producers Yongjin Metal Technology and Tan Viet presented their defense at Taiwan (PoC)'s anti-dumping trade hearing on September 14. Legal representatives argued that Vietnamese cold-rolled stainless steel imports account for only 8% of Taiwan (PoC)'s market demand, insufficient to constitute material injury. They further contended that Taiwan (PoC)'s local production, sales volumes, capacity utilization, and employee counts have all increased since 2023 while inventories declined, and that falling import prices reflect broader East Asian market trends rather than intentional underpricing. Defense counsel also asserted that rising Vietnamese shipments replaced third-country suppliers rather than displacing local manufacturers, and that Taiwan (PoC)'s domestic industry profit declines preceded the expansion of Vietnamese import volumes. Domestic petitioners Yusco and Tang Eng maintained that low-priced imports have forced local price cuts and eroded earnings. Investigators must now determine whether a causal link exists between Vietnamese shipments and injury to Taiwan (PoC)'s domestic market.
10 hours ago
[SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary] Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes remain high, US bonds continue to strengthen, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract falls under pressure in early trading
[9.17 Morning Meeting Notes] The US Fed decision lands tonight, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 94.5%. The FOMC meeting enters its second day (announcement at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 17th), and CME FedWatch shows a 94.5% probability of a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% (just 33.1% a month ago). The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.041% intraday, the highest since July 2007; the 20-year yield reached 5.441%, a new high since issuance resumed. A JPMorgan survey shows US Treasury investors' short positions surged by 10 percentage points in a single week to 19%, the largest increase since records began in 2019. Market focus is on the dot plot and Waller's press conference: whether this is a one-off adjustment or the start of a tightening cycle. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2610 contract fell sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 122,410 yuan/mt, down 1.35%, with an intraday low of 120,270 yuan/mt. The US Fed decision lands tonight, and the hike itself is fully priced in; the real risk is that if the dot plot signals sustained tightening, it will trigger a fresh round of selling, while otherwise there is room for repair. After the decision, if it turns out to be a "shoe dropping" scenario, there may be a technical rebound, but the pattern of high inventory and weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the upside. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 121,000-126,000 yuan/mt.
10 hours ago
Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Sep 16)
The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 16 Sep , 2026
Sep 16, 2026 16:28
South Korea Advances Cooperation on Lithium Resources in Kazakhstan and Nickel and Cobalt Resources in Uzbekistan
South Korea plans to strengthen cooperation with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the critical minerals sector, advancing joint exploration and technology development for lithium, nickel and cobalt resources. In Kazakhstan, the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) has signed an agreement with local companies to conduct joint drilling at the Bakennoye lithium deposit and its tailings in 2027. The potential lithium resources are preliminarily estimated at approximately 25,000 tonnes. In Uzbekistan, the two sides will focus on the exploration and development of nickel and cobalt resources in the Sultanbobo area, including R&D on processing and refining technologies and feasibility studies. The cooperation aims to facilitate the participation of Korean companies in subsequent development projects and strengthen the security of South Korea’s critical mineral supply chains.
Sep 16, 2026 15:36
【SMM Flash News】 Indonesia's HPM Nickel Further Decreased in Second Half of September
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Reference Price (HMA) for the second half of September 2026. The nickel HMA for the second half of September was set at USD 16,698.00/mt, down USD 35.33/mt, or 0.21%, from USD 16,733.33/mt in the first half of September. The cobalt HMA was USD 52,704.33/mt, while the iron ore HMA was USD 1.47/mt and the chrome ore HMA was USD 6.37/mt. Following the revised nickel ore HPM formula under Kepmen ESDM No.363.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, which took effect on September 15, 2026, the nickel ore HPMs are as follows: · Ni 1.2%: $24.89/wmt, down $20.77/wmt, based on the new HPM formula for Ni 1.2% grade and below. · Ni 1.3%: $49.20/wmt, down $0.69/wmt. · Ni 1.4%: $53.83/wmt, down $0.24/wmt. · Ni 1.5%: $58.50/wmt, down $0.25/wmt. · Ni 1.6%: $63.38/wmt, down $0.26/wmt.
Sep 16, 2026 14:55
【SMM Nickel Flash News】Indonesia Revises Nickel Ore HPM Formula, 1.2% Ni HPM Falls 45%
Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has issued Kepmen ESDM No.363.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, effective September 15, revising the nickel ore HPM formula introduced under Kepmen No.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026. The latest revision mainly lowers the nickel correction factor (CF) and cobalt coefficient for low-grade limonite. For 1.2% Ni ore, the revised HPM is $24.89/wmt, down $20.08/wmt, or 45%, from $44.97/wmt under the previous formula. The revised HPM is also below SMM’s current delivered price of $27/wmt. At a 14% royalty rate, the royalty based on the revised HPM is approximately $3.48/wmt, compared with $3.78/wmt based on the actual transaction price. The adjustment is expected to narrow the gap between HPM and market prices and reduce the tax burden on low-grade limonite miners. The impact on HPAL plants’ actual raw material costs is expected to be limited, as market prices have already remained below the previous HPM.
Sep 16, 2026 12:22
[SMM Analysis] Indonesia Revises Nickel Ore HPM Once Again, Pulling Limonite Prices Toward Market Levels
[SMM Analysis] Indonesia Revises Nickel Ore HPM Once Again, Pulling Limonite Prices Toward Market Levels
Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) recently further revised the benchmark price (HPM) formula for nickel ore, under Kepmen ESDM No.363.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026 which took effect on September 15, 2026. This revision specifically targets the two parameters that have had the greatest impact on the pricing of low-grade limonite used as feedstock for HPAL — the nickel correction factor (CF) for the 1.2% nickel grade range and the cobalt coefficient
Sep 16, 2026 12:16
[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
Sep 16, 2026 15:18
[SMM Analysis] Sustained Zinc Inventory Drawdown in China: Key Drivers & Outlook
[SMM Analysis] Sustained Zinc Inventory Drawdown in China: Key Drivers & Outlook
3 hours ago
[SMM Analysis] DRC Cobalt Exports Surge, Shifting Near-Term Bargaining Power to Buyers
[SMM Analysis] DRC Cobalt Exports Surge, Shifting Near-Term Bargaining Power to Buyers
Sep 11, 2026 19:02
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
Sep 11, 2026 16:56
 Solid-State Battery Weekly |  Steady Progress — Cooling Hype, Stronger Efforts
 Solid-State Battery Weekly | Steady Progress — Cooling Hype, Stronger Efforts
Sep 11, 2026 16:00
[SMM Analysis]Downstream Demand Improves Marginally, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Modest Gains in September
[SMM Analysis]Downstream Demand Improves Marginally, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Modest Gains in September
Sep 11, 2026 14:05
Latest News
Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Sep 17)
3 hours ago
SMM #1 Refined Nickel Price Up 2,200 Yuan/mt to 125,400 Yuan/mt on September 17
6 hours ago
[SMM Nickel Flash News] Indonesia Update — September 17, 2026
7 hours ago
Indonesian Nickel and Cobalt Prices Drop on September 17
7 hours ago
[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded on September 17 as the US Fed resumed rate hikes after a three-year hiatus
8 hours ago
[SMM Analysis] Nickel prices fell and procurement demand was weak, nickel salt prices declined this week
9 hours ago
Fed Unanimously Approves 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike, Signals More Increases This Year
9 hours ago
[SMM Nickel Market Flash] Southern China Mill Buys 7,000 mt of High-Grade NPI at 1,050 yuan/mtu
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] India Pushes Back on EU FTA Steel Quotas Below Current Entitlements
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Initiates Expiry Review on Cold-Rolled Stainless Steel from India and Indonesia
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EUROFER Backs CBAM Extension to Downstream Steel Products Ahead of Parliament Vote
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Taiwan (PoC)'s Chien Shing Stainless Steel Reports Surge in August and Eight-Month Revenue
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Taiwan (PoC)'s Stainless Imports Drop as Prices Surge Amid AD Investigation Against Vietnam
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Taiwan (PoC)'s Yusco & Tang Eng Report Stable Cumulative Revenue Growth Through August
10 hours ago
[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Vietnamese Stainless Steel Producers Contest AD Allegations at Taiwan (PoC)'s Trade Hearing
10 hours ago
[SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary] Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes remain high, US bonds continue to strengthen, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract falls under pressure in early trading
10 hours ago
Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Sep 16)
Sep 16, 2026 16:28
South Korea Advances Cooperation on Lithium Resources in Kazakhstan and Nickel and Cobalt Resources in Uzbekistan
Sep 16, 2026 15:36
【SMM Flash News】 Indonesia's HPM Nickel Further Decreased in Second Half of September
Sep 16, 2026 14:55
【SMM Nickel Flash News】Indonesia Revises Nickel Ore HPM Formula, 1.2% Ni HPM Falls 45%
Sep 16, 2026 12:22