[SMM Analysis] DRC Cobalt Exports Surge, Shifting Near-Term Bargaining Power to Buyers

The transport lag is central to this outlook. DRC cobalt hydroxide exports rose 92.9% month on month in June, while China's imports of cobalt intermediates reached 16,000 physical tonnes in July. Cargo routed through Durban normally takes about two months to reach China and can take close to three months when trucking, vessel availability or transshipment causes delays. China will therefore receive the material shipped earlier in the year over the coming months. Near-term supply pressure should ease, although medium-term availability will remain constrained by quotas and the shipping schedules of a small group of producers.

DRC cobalt exports rebounded sharply in June, but the cumulative first-half figure gives a clearer view of the underlying supply base. The country exported 41,100 tonnes of contained cobalt in the first half of 2026, down 6.4% year on year. This was the lowest first-half volume from 2022 to 2026 and 59.1% below the 2024 peak. The mid-year recovery is primarily filling the shortfall left by weak shipments earlier in the year.

Figure 1. Monthly DRC cobalt intermediate exports in the first half of 2026.

Figure 2. DRC cobalt exports by quarter and first half from 2022 to 2026.

Second-quarter exports reached 24,100 tonnes of contained cobalt, up 41.2% from the first quarter and 22.2 times the exceptionally low level recorded a year earlier. The year-on-year comparison is inflated by a base of only 1,085 tonnes in the second quarter of 2025. Compared with the second quarter of 2024, exports were still 52.0% lower. The headline growth rate therefore overstates the scale and durability of the supply recovery.

The quota execution window explains why shipments were concentrated in June. First-quarter quotas were extended to the end of June and implemented together with second-quarter quotas. Unused first-half quotas were subject to withdrawal and reallocation. Exporters faced a clear deadline, and June accounted for 48.9% of second-quarter product exports. SMM sees concentrated quota utilisation as a major driver of the June surge. Extrapolating June's pace through the second half would turn a one-off release into an unrealistic supply run-rate.

Lualaba Province drives the overall direction of DRC cobalt exports. It shipped 108,300 physical tonnes of cobalt hydroxide in the first half, or 91.0% of the national total. Its June exports rose from 14,900 tonnes to 30,300 tonnes and accounted for 97.2% of the country's month-on-month increase. Haut-Katanga added only 435 tonnes. The near-doubling of national exports was therefore mainly driven by faster deliveries from leading suppliers in Lualaba.

Figure 3. Monthly DRC cobalt hydroxide exports by province in the first half of 2026.

Haut-Katanga's second-quarter exports rose 86.4% from the first quarter, but the province represented only 9.0% of first-half exports and had limited influence on the national total. This high concentration means that shipping decisions by leading producers feed directly into volatility in Chinese arrivals, while other suppliers cannot quickly make up a shortfall.

In June, exports by EGC, METALKOL and CMOC KISANFU increased by 5,275 tonnes, 4,897 tonnes and 3,634 tonnes respectively from May. Together, the three exporters accounted for 87.4% of the country's net increase. KCC and LAMIKAL, by contrast, recorded decreases of 2,010 tonnes and 1,862 tonnes, while TFM was broadly unchanged. Available quotas, approvals and shipping arrangements likely contributed to the divergence, but export volumes do not prove that mine output increased at the same pace. EGC relies mainly on artisanal supply, where production growth is slow. CMOC, the largest cobalt producer, maintained high output in the first half of 2026 because its mine production itself was not restricted by the export quota policy.

For Chinese smelters, the identity of the supplier matters more than the national headline. Buyers receiving the concentrated shipments will see replenishment pressure ease first, while customers of suppliers that shipped less will continue to face the cost of waiting. New arrivals will initially improve supply for a limited group of customers and then influence the wider market through spot transactions, producing an uneven purchasing cycle across China.

Destination data help explain the gap between DRC exports and Chinese imports. The mining report lists 51 cobalt hydroxide records with a combined net weight of 136,300 tonnes. China alone accounted for 80,100 tonnes, or 58.7%, while a further 8,634 tonnes were reported under the combined destination 'China/Hong Kong'. South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia together represented 31.3%. After leaving the mine, cargo follows different commercial and logistics routes, while Chinese customs data only capture the batches that ultimately clear import procedures in China.

The destination table's 136,300 tonnes of net weight and the monthly export table's 119,000 physical tonnes use different coverage and measurement conventions. The destination data are useful for analysing trade routes and buyer channels, but their shares should not be applied directly to the monthly export total to estimate China-bound shipments.

Figure 5. Destination breakdown of DRC cobalt intermediate export records in the first half of 2026.

Figure 6. Selected DRC cobalt exporters, buyers and registered destinations.

The buyer channels differ sharply. KCC's records to GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL AG totalled 19,800 tonnes, of which only 34.49 tonnes were registered directly for China; the remainder was registered for South Africa and Mozambique. MUTANDA's records also went to those two countries. TFM's cobalt product records, by contrast, were all registered for China. Different commercial channels follow different China-bound schedules, so aggregate mine exports cannot translate into Chinese arrivals in the same month.

The destination data bring transport and delivery back into the supply analysis. Cargo registered for an African destination only becomes additional Chinese supply after onward shipment to China is confirmed. Counting all such cargo as China-bound material in advance would overstate the degree of near-term easing.

For cargo routed through Durban, road transport from the DRC border to the port takes more than 20 days, followed by another one to one and a half months at sea to reach China. The combined journey takes around two months and can extend to nearly three months when cargo waits for trucks, vessels or transshipment. DRC export data and Chinese import data therefore need to be compared with a shipment lag.

Transport chain from the DRC to China via Durban.

The sea and road legs normally take about two months. The timing starts from physical departure; customs clearance in China may add further time.

At this pace, China-bound cargo that physically left the DRC in June should contribute mainly to arrivals in August and September, although the fastest batches could have reached port in late July. The increase in Chinese imports in June and July also includes cargo dispatched earlier. SMM expects the mid-year recovery in shipments to continue feeding through to deliveries in China, reducing the urgency created by the earlier shortage.

Figure 7. China's imports of cobalt intermediates from the DRC from January to July 2026.

China imported about 18,000 physical tonnes of cobalt intermediates from the DRC in the first half of the year. June alone accounted for 10,800 tonnes, followed by another 16,000 tonnes in July. Across all origins, June and July contributed 73.6% of China's total imports in the first seven months. Arrivals have recovered decisively from the low levels seen through May, and domestic feedstock supply is being replenished.

The long transport cycle can create a misleading lag: mine shipments have already changed, while Chinese import data still reflect cargo dispatched months earlier. Concentrated mid-year departures can support arrivals for a period, and any subsequent weakness in shipments will also appear with a delay. Near-term improvement in deliveries can therefore coexist with unstable medium-term supply.

Of China's imports from the DRC, cargo entering through special customs supervision zone logistics totalled 7,561 tonnes in June and 10,046 tonnes in July, accounting for 69.9% and 62.9% of monthly DRC imports respectively. July also included 4,243 tonnes under general trade and 1,681 tonnes under processing trade. The inflow through bonded logistics channels shows that domestic availability is already improving. The next constraint on transactions is whether feedstock prices leave acceptable margins for smelters.

Figure 8. China's imports of cobalt intermediates from the DRC by trade mode from January to July 2026.

Since August and September 2026, sellers have continued to indicate 19-20 US dollars per pound for cobalt intermediates. Rapid declines in cobalt salt and refined cobalt prices have pulled downstream bids to 15-16 US dollars per pound, leaving a gap of roughly 4 US dollars per pound. Lower cobalt payables for mixed hydroxide precipitate and recycled material provide smelters with cheaper alternatives. Weak cobalt salt demand and limited processing margins leave smelters little room to chase higher feedstock prices, putting sellers' offers to a market test.

As previously shipped cargo arrives, buyers face less pressure to secure material immediately and have more room to wait for lower prices. SMM expects the supply improvement to show first in weaker seller bargaining power and greater pressure to concede. Smelters will set purchase prices against current cobalt salt orders and processing margins, forcing feedstock offers closer to the cost levels that downstream buyers can absorb.

SMM's market view is clear: the arrival of mid-year shipments will ease China's temporary cobalt feedstock shortage, while weak demand will turn that improvement into downward pressure on purchase prices. Transaction levels are likely to move lower. Buyers have more bargaining room, and sellers will find it increasingly difficult to defend high offers using the shortage narrative alone.

Indicative arrival windows for physically departed cargo

Estimated for China-bound cargo routed via Durban, using physical departure as the starting point.

The medium-term constraint is continuity. First-half DRC cobalt exports were at their lowest level in five years, while the June increase was highly concentrated among a few exporters. Supply remains sensitive to quota execution and shipping schedules. One concentrated delivery can relieve today's shortage, but it cannot provide the same volume every month.

The DRC accounted for more than 98% of China's imports under this customs code in both June and July, and other origins still cannot provide a meaningful substitute. Chinese smelters can now use the recovery in arrivals to reduce replenishment costs while retaining base contracts that secure continuous delivery. The practical opportunity is to press the advantage on price without giving up continuity of supply.

SMM Cobalt Analyst Xiao Wenhao 16621140365 / 021-51666872

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875

Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Yang Lianting 021-51595835