According to the survey, some areas in Jiangxi and Anhui have remained shut down and are waiting for further developments due to the impact of Notice No. 770 since early September. However, secondary copper rod enterprises in other regions generally indicated that they would maintain operations during the holiday. If raw material stockpiling is insufficient, workers may be given one to two days off.

[SMM Analysis:Grasberg Production Incident Heightens Expectations of Disruptions on Copper Supply Side] According to a report by Freeport-McMoRan, since the slurry accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8, two people have died and five are missing. The incident directly led to the suspension of operations at the world’s second-largest copper mine. Freeport-McMoRan estimates that its 2026 production could be 35% lower than previously projected. Based on SMM's assessment, Grasberg’s copper production is expected to be 488,000 metric tons in 2025 (previously estimated at 750,000 metric tons) and 500,000 metric tons in 2026 (previously estimated at 730,000 metric tons). This incident not only affects copper concentrate supply but also impacts copper smelting demand, represented by facilities such as Indonesia’s Gresik and Manyar, resulting in a reduction in both supply and demand. SMM predicts the supply-demand balance for 2025 will be -268,000 metric tons and -308,000 metric tons for 2026.

The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival coincide, resulting in an 8-day holiday; in previous years, the September-October peak season marked the start of a new cold year, with copper pipe & tube market orders and operating rates being quite impressive. However, this October may be the most sluggish for copper pipe & tube production in recent years.