According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in June 2025 was 16,545 yuan/mt, up 1.3% MoM and down 6.4% YoY. Despite alumina prices jumping initially and then pulling back during the period, they remained above 3,100 yuan/mt, leading to a MoM increase in the monthly average price and thus driving up aluminum cost. SMM data shows that the SMM alumina index averaged 3,235.7 yuan/mt MoM from May 26 to June 25, up 9.3% MoM. The average spot price of SMM A00 aluminum in June 2025 was approximately 20,453 yuan/mt (from May 26 to June 25), with domestic aluminum industry averaging a profit of about 3,908 yuan/mt. As of month-end June 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity reached 43.82 million mt, with the industry's highest full cost rising to 19,416 yuan/mt. If the industry uses monthly average prices for calculation, 100% of domestic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in June.

[SMM Analysis: Rising alumina prices drive up aluminum cost; south-west China implements electricity prices for rainy season] SMM reported on July 1: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in June 2025 was 16,545 yuan/mt, up 1.3% MoM and down 6.4% YoY. Despite alumina prices jumping initially and then pulling back during the period, they remained above 3,100 yuan/mt, leading to a MoM increase in the monthly average price and driving up the aluminum cost. SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index during the period (5.26-6.25) was 3,235.7 yuan/mt, up 9.3% MoM. The average spot price of SMM A00 aluminum in June 2025 was approximately 20,453 yuan/mt (May 26-June 25), with the average profit of the domestic aluminum industry at around 3,908 yuan/mt. As of month-end June 2025, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum reached 43.82 million mt, with the industry's highest full cost rising to 19,416 yuan/mt. If the industry uses the monthly average price for calculation, 100% of the domestic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in June.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: The Weak Supply and Demand Pattern Persists, SHFE Tin Maintains Fluctuating Trend Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Guidance] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Opened at 267,800 yuan/mt, maintained a fluctuating trend during the day, and surged sharply in the closing session to close at 269,840 yuan/mt (up 0.63% from the previous day), with an intraday range of 266,160-269,840 yuan/mt. Trading volume: 70,070 lots (down 35.6% from the previous day), open interest: 31,494 lots (a slight increase of 10 lots).

Demand side, most downstream SiMn alloy plants are in an active inquiry period. Manganese ore at Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port is experiencing slow destocking compared to last week (WoW), so miners' offers are relatively firm. Additionally...