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Introduction [Shanghai, China] - Building on the success of its previous 10 sessions, the SMM (11th) Annual Nickel Conference 2026 - Ni Cr Mn Stainless Steel Event will be held in Shanghai this November 12-13. [Scale] - Over 300+ delegates and 40+ speakers from 20+ countries will attend. [Agenda] - https://ni-cr-stainlesssteelapac.metal.com/home?fromId=265accf08c&from=58 Background: In 2026, the stainless steel market emerged from a trough. Driven by China’s anti-involution policies and expectations of nickel raw material shortages under Indonesian policies, the industry broke free from a three-year downturn, with prices rising rapidly. Stainless steel enterprises adjusted their nickel raw material ratios, leveraging the economic advantages of stainless steel scrap to expand its substitution share and gradually escape losses. However, the industry remained constrained by factors such as compliance restrictions on stainless steel scrap tax invoices and declining NPI grades, while demand for nickel replenishment further boosted the use of high-grade nickel, making structural issues increasingly prominent. On the raw material side, the nickel industry chain underwent a fundamental pattern shift in 2026, with industry logic moving from oversupply to a long-term tight balance constrained by resources and power. Market divergence intensified, and fluctuations across the industry chain became pronounced. The tightening of Indonesia’s RKAB quotas, the HPM policy driving up ore prices, and the crowding out of power supply by aluminum reversed the growth trajectory of smelting costs and supply in both China and Indonesia. Nickel prices rose in a stepwise manner in H1, with supply-demand and cost factors providing strong price support. The global ferrochrome market continued its trend of shifting eastward. China’s ferrochrome production grew steadily, maintaining the top position globally, while South Africa resumed production comprehensively with policy support. Multiple growth drivers pushed ferrochrome supply toward a surplus. The chrome ore market, supported by Middle East conflicts, saw short-term sharp price spikes; high imports pushed port ore inventory above 5 million mt, leaving spot cargo in clear surplus and prices on a downward trajectory. Increased policy uncertainty around South African mining pushed the ferrochrome market into a new cycle of supply-demand pattern adjustment. The manganese industry chain experienced significant divergence in 2026, with industry dynamics shifting from a single supply-demand game to a split pattern driven by dual demand from stainless steel and lithium batteries. Manganese ore capacity remained ample throughout the year, while production cuts in smelting and high raw material prices formed strong cost support, limiting the room for deep price declines. On the demand side, differentiation was evident: SiMn continued to replace EMM; trends in lithium-battery manganese materials diverged, with manganese sulphate receiving periodic market support while Mn3O4 terminal demand weakened under pressure. Multiple factors drove structural fluctuations, making Q4 a critical planning window for enterprise purchasing and production schedules. Currently, global nickel, ferrochrome, manganese, and stainless steel markets are intertwined with multiple variables including mining policies, energy, and downstream demand, resulting in notably wider price fluctuations. Q4 coincides with a critical period for enterprises formulating their production, procurement, and hedging plans for the following year. SMM will hold the SMM (11th) Annual Nickel Conference 2026 - Ni Cr Mn Stainless Steel Event in Shanghai from November 12-13, 2026, inviting global stakeholders in the nickel, chromium, manganese and stainless steel industry to deeply explore hot topics such as the latest market policies, global market development, and hedging strategies with derivatives. This industry conference will bring together practitioners from the entire industry chain including miners, smelters, stainless steel mills and traders to conduct in-depth discussions on core topics such as Indonesian policies, nickel, chromium and manganese market price trends, raw material substitution, and medium and long-term supply-demand, breaking down upstream and downstream information barriers and providing reference for industry business decisions. Highlights: Co-located with Commodity Week, Comprehensive Coverage of Non-Ferrous Metals, Energy, Chemicals and Other Diverse Sectors 10+ International Associations Engaging in In-Depth Discussions on Policies, Methods and Market Global experts from 20+ countries/regions are brought together to adopt an international perspective and explore global opportunities. The latest strategies combine physical and futures markets to unlock new approaches to hedging. Exclusive 1-on-1 meeting platform: chat online and meet offline directly. Government & Policy Authorities & Industry Association: National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia | Asosiasi Penambang Nikel Indonesia (APNI) | Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) | Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) | International Nickel Study Group | Nickel Institute | Shanghai OTC Commodity Derivatives Association | Internation Manangese Institute (IMnI) Agenda: Time Agenda 08：30-9：30 Sign in 9:30 - 9:40 Opening Ceremony 9:40 - 10:00 [Keynote Speech] Understanding Indonesia's Nickel Policy Shifts: Ensuring Orderly Market Development 10:00 - 10:30 [Keynote Speech] The New Global Nickel Landscape: Indonesia’s HPM Policy Revisions and the Reshaping of Price Benchmarks 10:30 - 10:50 [Keynote Speech] Indonesia's NPI New Export Policy and Protection of Smelter Interests 10:50- 11:00 Coffee Break 11:00 - 11:30 [Keynote Speech] The Global Landscape of Nickel 11:30- 12:00 [Keynote Speech] How NPI Calendar Spread Contracts Are Driving the Derivatives Trading Space 12:00 - 13:30 Lunch 13:30 - 14:20 [Panel Discussion] Who will Control the Pricing Power in the Global Nickel Market Amid Policy Shifts? 14:20 - 14:40 [Keynote Speech] Global Nickel Market Outlook 14:40 - 15:00 [Keynote Speech] Give Full Play to the Functions of the Futures Market and Promote the High-quality Development and Internationalization of the Nickel Industry 15:00 - 15:20 [Keynote Speech] Sustainability Requirements and Standards for the Nickel Industry 15:20- 15:40 Coffee Break 15:40 - 16:40 [Panel Discussion] Exchange-Traded Derivatives Trading Pathways-How to Rebuild Risk Management Systems amid Geopolitical Disturbances and Enhance Contract Pricing Value 16:40 - 17:00 Logistics and Supply Chain Collaboration Help the Industry Develop Efficiently 18.00-20.00 Banquet Dinner 09:00 -09:15 [Keynote Speech] The Nickel Ore Equation: Indonesia's Policy Stack, the HPM Gap, and the Making of a Structural Tight Balance 09:15 - 09:30 [Keynote Speech] Competitiveness and Pricing Logic of NPI Under the Adjustment of Stainless Steel Raw Material Structure 09:30-09:45 [Keynote Speech] Short-term Cost Support and Long-term Supply Release: Outlook for the Nickel Intermediate and Nickel Sulfate Market 09:45 - 10:00 [Keynote Speech] Cost Support and the Shifting Center of Gravity for Nickel Prices Amid Oversupply 10:00-10:15 [Keynote Speech] Analysis of Supply and Demand Game of Global Molybdenum Market and Mid- to Long-term Market Forecast 10:15-10:30 [Keynote Speech] Africa's Chromium Industry: Policy and Development Insights 10:30- 10:50 Coffee Break 10:50 - 11:20 [Keynote Speech] China Ferrochrome Supply-Demand Balance and Outlook 11:20-11:40 [Keynote Speech] Development Status of China's Stainless Steel Industry 11:40 - 12:00 [Keynote Speech] Global Stainless Trade Under Policy: From CBAM to Quotas, a Two-Front View of Europe and Southeast Asia 12:00 - 13:30 Lunch 13:30 - 13:50 [Keynote Speech] Trends, Challenges, and Future Outlook of Demand and Supply in the Japanese Stainless Steel Industry 13:50 - 14:10 Driving the Next Stainless Steel Growth Cycle: India’s Infrastructure Boom, Decarbonization, and Global Supply Chain Synergies 14:10 - 14:30 [Keynote Speech] European Stainless Steel Market Development and Trade Flow Analysis 14:30 - 14:50 [Keynote Speech] New Energy Batteries – Emerging Opportunities for Stainless Steel 14:50 - 15:10 [Keynote Speech] New Applications and Developments in the Stainless Steel Market 15:10-15:30 [Keynote Speech] Current Development and Industrial Distribution of the High-End Stainless Steel Fastener Industry Conference Ends

Recently, news of tightening lithium battery copper foil supply has drawn attention from the industry and capital markets. Some worry that tight copper foil supply will immediately drag down battery capacity expansion and even affect end-user deliveries. In reality, however, the copper foil constraint will not materialize right away, and the real risk window may emerge next year. What is copper foil? Why is it so critical? Copper foil is the "conductive skeleton" of the lithium battery anode, an extremely thin copper film only a fraction of the thickness of a human hair. It accounts for a modest share of battery costs (about 10%-15%), but even slight quality fluctuations can affect battery yield and safety. More importantly, copper foil supply is not a case of "having capacity means having product"—a plant may plan annual production of 100,000 mt, but the volume that can actually pass battery maker certification and be supplied steadily is often discounted. The supply-demand gap does exist, but pressure is limited this year In 2026, China's lithium battery copper foil demand is about 1.37 million mt, while actual stable supply is about 1.35 million mt, leaving a gap of about 20,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 50 GWh of lithium battery cells). Against an estimated global lithium battery cell production of about 3,400 GWh in 2026, this figure is not large, and in the short term battery makers can still buffer through inventory, adding suppliers, and adjusting production schedules. Therefore, copper foil will not become a hard constraint on lithium battery production increases this year; the impact will be seen more in tight production schedules at leading suppliers, greater difficulty in placing last-minute orders, and longer delivery cycles for certain specifications. Looking further ahead, however, pressure will rise: the gap in 2027 is about 40,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 100 GWh of lithium battery cells), and it may continue to widen in 2028. Copper foil demand growth is outpacing supply growth, and the situation will tighten further over time. AI copper foil is "distracting" attention, but has not yet stolen the race Recently, AI servers and high-speed communications have been booming, and processing fees for high-end electronic copper foil have surged to 200,000-300,000 yuan/mt, nearly 10 times that of ordinary lithium battery copper foil. This will attract leading copper foil makers to shift capital and equipment toward high-end products, but such production lines have high technical barriers and long certification cycles, so they cannot be converted at scale in the short term. In other words, AI copper foil will not immediately crowd out lithium battery copper foil capacity, but it will raise the "opportunity cost" of lithium battery capacity expansion—when copper foil makers make new investments, they will prioritize the more profitable high-end electronic copper foil. Key judgment: this year can hold, next year depends on positioning The impact of copper foil shortages on the battery industry is progressive. Stage one (this year): inventory and flexible procurement can still hold. Battery makers generally have stockpiles and can also adjust through multiple suppliers, so short-term production increases will not be significantly constrained. Stage two (next year and beyond): if new capacity does not keep pace and long-term contracts are not locked in early, production may indeed be affected. New production line certification takes time, and once the gap widens, spot procurement will struggle to find stable supply sources, and certain specifications may see "capacity exists, but no spot cargo" situations. Stage three (long term): upstream and downstream will become deeply bound. CATL and partners such as Huike will jointly build 400,000 mt of copper foil capacity over the next three years, signaling that battery leaders are shifting from "annual tenders" to "direct participation in plant construction." In the future, battery makers wanting to secure supply will likely need to provide funds, orders, and joint R&D in advance. Conclusion The structural shortage of lithium battery copper foil is already established, but in the short term it will not significantly limit battery production increases, as enterprise inventory and procurement flexibility still provide buffer room. The real test will come in 2027 and beyond: if copper foil capacity expansion progress falls short of expectations and battery makers have not locked in long-term orders and capacity in advance, a tight balance of "orders but no materials" may emerge starting in H2 next year, thereby affecting production release. In summary, the copper foil supply constraint has not yet become the core contradiction this year, but it is shifting from an "option" to a "must-answer question." Battery makers that position long-term contracts and capacity binding in advance will gain a clear supply chain flexibility advantage next year.

Goldman Sachs kept its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 an ounce despite this week's Fed hike, saying tighter policy will slow the rally but not derail it. Gold ticked above $4,355 on Friday on a softer dollar and lower oil prices. Goldman Sachs holding its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 an ounce despite this week's rate hike is the more notable signal here, since it suggests the bank sees the Fed's tightening path as a headwind that slows gold's rally rather than one that reverses it. That view sits against a backdrop where higher rates would typically curb demand for a non-yielding asset by increasing the appeal of yield-bearing alternatives, yet gold has still edged higher on Friday, helped by a softer dollar and a 1% pullback in oil prices. With 16 of 18 Fed policymakers now pointing to at least one more hike this year, the near-term path for real yields remains a genuine headwind, but Goldman's unchanged long-term call implies the bank sees that pressure as manageable within its broader bullish thesis, likely underpinned by continued central bank buying and ongoing Middle East risk. --- Goldman says the Fed's hike slows gold's rally, but the bank isn't backing off its $5,400 call. Summary: Goldman Sachs kept its end-2027 gold price forecast unchanged at $5,400 per troy ounce despite this week's Federal Reserve rate hike, saying tighter policy ( Goldman ditches one and done call, now sees a second Fed hike in October ) is likely to slow bullion's rally but not derail it Gold rose slightly on Friday to trade above $4,355 an ounce, supported by a 1% fall in oil prices and a subdued US dollar The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and signalled further hikes ahead, with updated projections showing 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one more quarter-point increase by year end A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, while higher rates typically curb gold demand by boosting the appeal of yield-bearing assets Market participants remain focused on developments in the Middle East and the broader path for global monetary policy Goldman Sachs kept its end-2027 gold price forecast unchanged at $5,400 per troy ounce on Friday, even after this week's Federal Reserve rate hike, saying tighter monetary policy is likely to slow bullion's rally rather than derail it. The bank's unchanged call comes despite a backdrop that would typically weigh on gold, since higher interest rates increase the appeal of yield-bearing assets and can curb demand for a non-yielding metal, even one traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge. Gold itself ticked higher on Friday, trading above $4,355 an ounce, as lower oil prices and a subdued US dollar offered support. Oil fell around 1% on the day, while the dollar remained soft after retreating from recent highs, a combination that makes dollar-priced commodities less expensive for holders of other currencies and has provided a modest tailwind for bullion. The move comes just two days after the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and flagged further hikes in the months ahead. Updated quarterly economic projections showed 16 of the Fed's 18 policymakers now anticipate at least one more quarter-percentage-point increase by the end of this year, a hawkish signal that has kept real yields and the dollar in focus for gold traders. Despite that backdrop, market participants have kept a close eye on developments in the Middle East alongside the broader path for global monetary policy, with geopolitical risk continuing to provide an offsetting source of support for the metal even as the rate outlook turns less accommodative. Source： https://investinglive.com/commodities/goldman-keeps-5-400-gold-forecast-intact-despite-fed-hike/