At present, this large-scale power cut did not happen all of a sudden.

The supply of coal and electricity falls short of demand.

1 demand side: since the resumption of work and production, the national electricity demand has increased rapidly, with an increase of nearly 15% compared with the same period last year.

2 supply side: the proportion of thermal power generation in China is more than 70%, and coal prices have soared this year-at this time last year, the comprehensive trading price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was about 563 yuan / ton, which is now 1079 yuan / ton. nearly double-the coal inventory of the power plant is at an all-time low, "one coal is difficult to demand" and "cross-provincial coal search".

In addition, some people believe that the root cause of the current coal shortage lies in the "Australian coal ban" in December last year. I'm afraid there's not much data to support this. In 2020, China's power industry consumed more than 2 billion tons of coal, and imported 42.35 million tons of Australian thermal coal (coal for power generation) in the same year, accounting for a very small proportion.

However, the zero clearance of Australian coal has clearly contributed to the surge in coal prices. Once again, the epidemic situation in Mongolia was repeated, which affected the import of Mongolian coal.

3 since January 1, 2020, the coal-electricity linkage mechanism has been implemented for 15 years. According to the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission, the feed-in electricity price for coal-fired power generation is determined according to the "benchmark price + fluctuation", with an upward float of no more than 10% and a downward float of no more than 15% in principle.

In other words, demand skyrocketed, coal prices skyrocketed, and the market-oriented electricity price mechanism has not been fully formed, so electricity prices will not and can not soar, power plants generally lose money, coal inventory is insufficient, thus affecting the power supply.

Double control of energy consumption

The so-called "double control of energy consumption" means to control not only the intensity of energy consumption (energy consumption per unit GDP), but also the total amount of energy consumption.

Under the background of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutralization", taking the energy consumption intensity as a binding index, we intend to force all localities to change the mode of economic development and embark on a low-carbon development path.

However, in August, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a barometer on the achievement of dual energy consumption control targets in various regions in the first half of 2021. Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian and other provinces and regions lit a red light, and the energy consumption intensity increased instead of decreasing compared with the same period last year.

The fourth quarter is just around the corner. What about the annual target? As a result, various localities quickly started rectification and reform "zero clearance" action, temporary, mandatory, layer by layer, power cut-off.

It was intended for long-term planning, but in exchange for short-term raids.

Although the central government has repeatedly stressed that it should avoid "one-size-fits-all shutdown" and correct "exercise-style carbon reduction", at present, the effect of deviation correction is limited.

Protect export enterprises

Power cuts and outages have indeed protected some export enterprises.

The global epidemic and the resumption of domestic production have caused a large number of orders to pour into China. However, these orders do not bring the corresponding bargaining power, but aggravate the volume of export processing enterprises. In the case of skyrocketing costs, skyrocketing international freight rates and unprofitable, there are still some enterprises that blindly expand their production capacity.

Once the epidemic situation and the relationship between supply and demand change, it is likely to cause a devastating blow to these enterprises. Objectively speaking, the arrangement of power restriction and shutdown has really made these export enterprises "calm". Teacher Tan Yaling has a detailed discussion on this point below.

What are the other reasons for the power restriction policy and what other problems should be paid attention to? Let's take a look at the big heads' analysis again.

Tan Yaling (China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute-independent economist) policy is originally intended to control the rhythm. Enterprises that press the pause button to suppress production capacity need to think calmly.

Many entrepreneurs have some resistance to the policy of power outages and production restrictions. they think that this hinders the production of enterprises, but they only consider the problem from the point of view of the enterprise.

Before the epidemic, it was going to capacity, to inventory. Today, the foreign manufacturing industry has not yet resumed work due to the epidemic, and domestic enterprises see the demand for orders and desperately increase their production capacity.

However, due to the skyrocketing prices of raw materials, the rise in shipping prices several times, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the high cost of domestic labor, these factors add up, the more export enterprises produce, the more losses they will lose. Moreover, once work is resumed abroad, there will be a serious overcapacity at home.

From the national point of view, macro-control policies are becoming more and more mature and will proceed according to the actual situation of enterprises. The original intention of the policy of power outage and production restriction is to control the rhythm and press the pause button.

For enterprises, although production capacity is suppressed, they can also calm down a little bit, take advantage of the gap to learn, and think about technology and innovation.

At the same time, the policy of power outage and production restriction has two indirect positive effects.

First, the rise in raw materials does not have much to do with productivity. On the contrary, it has a strong relationship with economic recovery and speculation about the start of construction. This means that policy restrictions on domestic production capacity can cushion companies' pursuit of raw materials and slow down the soaring rate of raw materials.

Second, raw materials are skyrocketing, and Chinese enterprises import raw materials so strongly, but not all goods produced can be exported, even if exports have to lose money. Therefore, it is foreign capital that is making profits, and it is also embezzling and squeezing our profit margins.

Now China's stock market is rising rapidly, corresponding to the enterprise side, enterprise production is not profitable, but is the role of capital operation. The rise of the stock market is also related to northward capital. Foreign investors are all experts and have the motivation of arbitrage and hedging, which involves the capital game, which increases the risk of domestic enterprises.

At this time, taking the initiative to cut power and limit production is also a warning to foreign investors.

If the macro form of entrepreneur group judgment is only from the perspective of the enterprise, it will be limited. Think from the overall point of view, the state of mind will be more peaceful, and finally make adjustments conducive to the long-term development of the enterprise.

In addition, when implementing the policy, local governments also need to cooperate with some briefing meetings and economic situation report meetings to help enterprises correctly understand the original intention of the policy.

Under the downward pressure of economic growth, Qin Shuo (founder of Qin Shuo's moments) needs to strike a better balance between steady growth, stable employment, consumption reduction and carbon reduction.

Manufacturing industry is an important feature of China's economic structure, is China's comparative advantage, but also creates a large number of employment opportunities. China's manufacturing industry is characterized by a full range of categories and strong supporting facilities. From the beginning of raw materials to the final finished products, there are multiple processing links layer by layer, which is equivalent to "repeated manufacturing", plus semi-finished products are transported back and forth, so the energy consumption is relatively high.

This is determined by the characteristics of China's economy. With the structural adjustment, the pressure will be reduced in the future, but this is a process and cannot be achieved overnight.

With the development of human civilization and the improvement of personal well-being, per capita energy consumption is an important indicator. High energy consumption, often a high standard of living. Energy use is not as low as possible, but it is true that the less carbon emissions, the better.

So ideologically, we should not simply regard energy consumption as a negative thing, but strive to achieve "carbon-reducing energy consumption", that is, more use of renewable energy, reduce the proportion of fossil energy, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.

The energy consumption intensity per unit of GDP in China has been decreasing, and the annual target is often completed ahead of schedule. In the current situation of increasing downward pressure on the overall economic growth, there is a need for a better balance between stable growth, stable employment, consumption reduction and carbon reduction.

1. Pay attention to refinement. The electricity consumption of some buildings and halls and roads is uneconomical and can be reduced first, while productive electricity consumption should be taken into account as much as possible.

2. Pay more attention to the use of scientific and technological means to reduce carbon, rather than administrative means across the board.

3. Gradually replace the energy consumption control index with the control index of carbon emission (total carbon emission, carbon emission intensity). If we make more use of renewable energy, we can "reduce carbon without reducing consumption". Compared with fossil energy, the technological nature of renewable energy determines that its cost will continue to decline in the future. In most areas, wind power and photovoltaic power can even be cheaper than coal power, and the cost of electricity can even be close to free in the future. greatly improve living and environmental well-being.

4. Create carbon sequestration and negative carbon through afforestation to hedge the high consumption and high carbon in the process of industrialization.

Tao Jin (SUNING Institute of Finance-Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Research Center) Power cut-off is after all a short-term measure rather than a long-term measure to control energy consumption.

There may be many reasons behind the power outage. First of all, the energy consumption in some areas is indeed increasing in the face of the upsurge of industrial prosperity. Provinces and cities that do not achieve the progress target of reducing energy intensity and the target of total energy consumption, these goals are rigid. Therefore, in the face of the peak season of electricity consumption in the fourth quarter, energy consumption control and regulation in advance is a necessary way to achieve the goal.

Secondly, power cuts and outages can indeed limit industrial capacity expansion, reduce the supply of industrial products in the middle and lower reaches to a certain extent, raise prices, make the upstream and downstream price transmission more smoothly, and at the same time iron out the fluctuation of production cycle. to avoid future overcapacity or even increased corporate bankruptcy.

The barriers to industrial entry in the middle and lower reaches are relatively low, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises enter the market and the total production capacity expands, resulting in poor pricing power, and the pressure of upstream costs is difficult to digest.

Power cuts and outages are of course a short-term measure, not a long-term measure, but the upstream price rise may also be relatively short-term, that is, the slow recovery of global capacity in the middle and upper reaches caused by the epidemic. It seems reasonable to use short-term measures to deal with short-term problems. Domestic iron and steel production capacity is limited in the early stage, which has a good restraining effect on iron ore prices.

However, it should be noted that the global supply contraction caused by epidemic factors may be sustained, and even some of the loss of production capacity is permanent, making it difficult for prices in the upper and middle reaches to adjust back in the short term. At the same time, whether the high-intensity power outages will affect the satisfaction of normal external demand consistent with previous years, especially the concentration of export orders before Christmas in Europe and the United States, is also worthy of attention.

In addition, it is expected that at the policy level, according to the current comprehensive situation of enterprise energy consumption and production, the policy intensity will be reasonably adjusted, flexible management will be strengthened, and an across-the-board approach will not be adopted.