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How will the P1020A Premium (QMJP) CIF Japan price evolve in Q1 2026?
Dec 12, 2025 17:42
Q1 2026 Japan MJP (main ports) aluminum ingot premium is expected to rebound from the low of $86/mt in Q4 2025, with the center rising. The core logic stems from tightening supply in Asia triggered by the restructuring of global aluminum trade flows, coupled with catalysts from European carbon policies and structural demand support. The latest offers from leading smelters have already indicated an upward trend, but restocking constraints due to the end of Japan's fiscal year may limit the extent of the rebound. Detailed analysis is as follows:
![[SMM Conference] Global Metal Elites Gather at SME 2025, Linking International Industry Networks and Decoding 2026 Metal Price Trends](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesqdYAT20251210120141.jpeg)
Central Banks Hawkish Language Continue To Weigh On Copper Prices
Stronger-than-expected economic data released last week, including new home sales in May, durable goods orders in May and the consumer confidence index in June in the US pointed to a strong US economy. Powell said at the ECB Forum on Central Banking last Wednesday that there may be several interest rate hikes in the future in the midst of strong economic data, and another aggressive interest rate hike to curb inflation is not ruled out.
Jul 3, 2023 17:41
SMM Review Of Spot Copper Market In Shanghai Last Week
Spot premiums fell initially and then rose last week. In the first half of the week, market participants focused on stock liquidation due to the month-end and mid-year settlement, lowering spot premiums. On Tuesday last week, SMM spot premiums of #1 copper cathode averaged 200 yuan/mt against next-month invoices. In the second half of the week, sellers raised their quotes and spot premiums exceeded 300 yuan/mt against next-month invoices.
Jul 3, 2023 17:41
Import Losses Continued To Narrow, Yangshan Copper Premiums Seen Rising
Yangshan copper premiums with a quotation period in July stood at $42-57/mt under warrants during June 26-30, with the average up $3.4/mt from June 21. Those stood between $41-57/mt under bill of lading with a quotation period in July, with the average up $2.6/mt. As of June 30, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio stood at 8.29, and import losses stood at 233 yuan/mt against the SHFE July copper contract.
Jul 3, 2023 17:37
Antofagasta and Chinese Smelters Finalised Spot Copper Concentrate Tcs Under Long-Term Contracts For 2024
SMM understood that Antofagasta and Chinese smelters finalised Cu 50% copper concentrate TC/RCs under long-term contracts for 2024 at $88/mt and $0.088/mt, up $12/mt and $0.012/mt respectively, from those 2022.
Jul 3, 2023 17:37
Several Factors Will Pressure Copper Concentrate Spot TCs In Second Half Of 2023
As of Friday June 30, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at $91.53/mt, $0.43/mt higher than June 21. During the week, spot trades of copper concentrate cooled down. SMM learned that one smelter and a trader traded 10,000 mt of clean ore scheduled for August with TCs of $90/mt.
Jul 3, 2023 17:36
Disruptions from Chile Floods on copper mine were Weaker than Expected
Codelco's Andina Copper Mine (with output of 177,000 mt of copper content in 2022) resumed production after a brief outage caused by the floods in Chile. The key infrastructure equipment of the mine was not affected, though some roads in the mining area were washed away.
Jul 3, 2023 17:35
China Requires Payment for Delinquent VAT, Copper Rod Plants Using Copper Scrap In Some Areas Cautious In Production
The operating rates of copper rod plants using copper scrap were 48.96% between June 26 and June 30, a drop of 0.61 percentage point from a week earlier, according to SMM survey of 15 plants with a capacity of 1.48 million mt/year). The supply of copper scrap last week was no longer the main factor restricting the production of copper rod produced with copper scrap.
Jul 3, 2023 17:31
Domestic Iron Ore Prices Stabilised Last Week And To Strengthen This Week
Last week, the iron ore prices rose 1-5 yuan/mt in Tangshan, Qian'an and Qianxi county in Hebei province; climbed 1-5 yuan/mt in Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping city in western Liaoning province; and fell 1-5 yuan/mt in east China.
Jul 3, 2023 17:23
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