"Wind Energy Beijing Declaration" releases positive policy signals after the installation trend, equipment manufacturers are still optimistic about the expansion of production capacity.

SMM News: October 14, "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration" released, double one Technology (300690.SZ), Taisheng Wind Energy (300129.SZ) closed up 20% limit, Jinlei shares (300443.SZ) rose 17.2%, Daijin heavy Industry (002487.SZ), 002202.SZ (002202.SZ), Tianshun Wind Energy (002531.SZ) closed up 10% limit. The strength of the wind energy sector is mainly affected by positive policies, downstream rush and substantial growth in the third quarter.

The average annual installed capacity is expected to double

At the 2020 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference, the Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy was issued. The declaration pointed out that in order to achieve the goal of starting convergence with the goal of carbon neutralization, in the 14th five-year Plan, it is necessary to set a development space for wind power in line with the national strategy of carbon neutralization: to ensure that the annual installed capacity is more than 50 million kilowatts. After 2025, the average annual installed capacity of wind power in China should not be less than 60 million kilowatts, reaching at least 800 million kilowatts by 2030 and at least 3 billion kilowatts by 2060.

Statistics from the National Energy Administration show that 25.79 million kilowatts of wind power will be connected to the grid in 2019 and 10.04 million kilowatts of wind power will be installed from January to August 2020. Judging from the data, there is a large gap between the current actual new installed capacity and the target of the declaration. Previously, Caixin Securities Research and report estimated that during the 14th five-year Plan period, the average annual installed capacity of wind power was 24.58 million kilowatts. Taisheng Wind Energy Dong Secret Office told the Financial Associated Press that according to historical data, 2000 to 30 million kilowatts is currently a relatively normal situation in the industry, as for whether the industry target of 50 million kilowatts can be achieved, the company's point of view is not clear.

Combined with the reality of the current new installed capacity of wind power, according to the target of 50 million kilowatts put forward in the "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration", the average annual installed capacity is expected to double during the 14th five-year Plan period, thus driving the growth of orders in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain.

The China Circular economy Association behind the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference is managed by the State Council's State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission and is operationally guided by the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments. At the same time, Ren Yuzhi, deputy director of the New and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, attended the meeting and said at the meeting that the National Energy Administration is organizing the preparation of the 14th five-year Plan for the development of renewable energy. it will vigorously promote the high-proportion and high-quality development of new and renewable energy, and make greater efforts to promote the large-scale development of wind power.

Based on this, the market regards the goals set out in the "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration" as the policy signal of the national "14th five-year Plan" for the wind power industry, and it is reasonable to respond enthusiastically to drive the wind power sector to rise sharply.

The development plan for the construction of wind power is not sudden. Recently, many articles have been issued to promote the construction of wind power. On October 9, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a plan to add 5.2 million kilowatts of wind power to 2025; on the same day, the Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a plan to add 8 million kilowatts of wind power from 2020 to 2021; the Guangxi provincial government issued a plan to initially build offshore wind power of more than 500000 kilowatts from 2020 to 2022; on September 29th, six departments, including the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, issued a document that plans to put into production of offshore wind power of about 15 million kilowatts by the end of 2025. On September 22nd, the Hubei provincial government announced plans to add 2 million kilowatts of wind power from 2020 to 2022.

It is expected that offshore wind power will be installed on land.

2020 is an important node for onshore wind power rush installation. According to the notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on improving the on-grid tariff policy for wind power issued on May 21, 2019, those who are approved by the end of 2018 and have not been connected to the grid before the end of 2020 will no longer enjoy subsidies; those approved in 2019 and 2020 and those not completed by the end of 2021 will no longer enjoy subsidies; and from 2021, the newly approved onshore wind power projects will fully implement parity.

Offshore wind power is expected to form a round of rush installation in 2021 when the state subsidizes the decline of the slope. For offshore wind power, the notice stipulates that the guidance price for the completion of grid connection before the end of 2018 is 0.85 yuan / kWh; 2019 is 0.80 yuan / kWh;2020 approval guidance price is 0.75 yuan / kWh; 2022 and later, the guidance price for the year of grid connection shall be implemented.

For the performance forecast of nearly 1-2 years, the Western Securities Research report pointed out that "the short-term wind power sector continues to thrive, as onshore wind power will be concentrated in 2020, and domestic wind power installation is expected to remain stable after a short-term decline." Dong Secret Office of Daijin heavy Industry holds the same view that the company's performance is expected to return to a normal and stable state next year, which may decline somewhat, but there will not be much change. Dong Secret Office told the Financial Associated Press that Daijin's outstanding performance this year has something to do with the rush to grab and assemble, but the most important thing is that the company completed the technical renovation and construction of a number of projects last year, resulting in a substantial increase in production capacity. Thanks to policy planning, the market demand is greater than the company's production capacity, so the company's production capacity is the key factor that determines the company's order revenue.

Taisheng Wind Energy Dong Secret Office told the Financial Associated Press that the company expects offshore wind power business to grow greatly next year and is currently working on offshore wind power capacity expansion.

The results forecast of the three quarterly reports is eye-catching and supports the confidence of the market.

Recently, a number of wind power companies have disclosed three quarterly results in advance, and the eye-catching performance has also provided fundamental confidence for the market. Among the more prominent stocks, the new strong alliance expects to achieve a net profit of RMB2.55-270 million in the first three quarters, an increase of 352.61% and 379.23% over the same period last year. Daijin heavy Industries expects to make a net profit of 277 million yuan to 332 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 150% over the same period last year. Shuangyi Technology expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.55-279 million in the first three quarters, an increase of 151-198% over the same period last year. Jinlei is expected to make a net profit of 140 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 138% from a year earlier. Taisheng Wind Energy expects to make a net profit of 209 million yuan to 250 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 55% Rue 85% over the same period last year. Sinopec is expected to make a net profit of RMB1.43-163 million in the first three quarters, up 40 per cent and 60 per cent over the same period last year. Mingyang Intelligence expects to achieve a net profit of 800 million yuan to 900 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 55.76% to 75.23% over the same period last year.

In terms of making greater efforts to promote wind power technological progress and industrial development, Ren Yuzhi pointed out at the meeting that it is necessary to strengthen the "make-up board" of manufacturing technology for key components such as wind power main bearings and blade materials, and strive to reduce wind power costs. in particular, offshore wind power costs, effectively improve the competitiveness of the wind power market, and promote the construction of an industrial system and manufacturing capacity adapted to the large-scale development of wind power.