Today, HRC futures rose with fluctuations, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,136, up 0.06% on a daily basis. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production this week was 19,600 mt, a decrease of 32,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production is expected to be 2,800 mt, a decrease of 16,800 mt MoM from this week. The impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production has reached its lowest point, further increasing the supply pressure of HRC. In terms of demand, the end-use demand from the manufacturing sector remains relatively resilient, but seasonal decline trends have also emerged. Cost side, there have been widespread rumors of production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan today. According to the SMM survey, production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan steel mills do exist. However, the steel mills themselves have sufficient sinter inventory, which is unlikely to lead to production cuts in blast furnaces. Meanwhile, there is still an expectation of an increase in pig iron production from blast furnaces, and the support from furnace charge may not collapse in the short term. Looking ahead, the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market are still in the accumulation stage, but inventory pressure remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Coupled with moderate cost support, it is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

[SMM Analysis: Rising alumina prices drive up aluminum cost; south-west China implements electricity prices for rainy season] SMM reported on July 1: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in June 2025 was 16,545 yuan/mt, up 1.3% MoM and down 6.4% YoY. Despite alumina prices jumping initially and then pulling back during the period, they remained above 3,100 yuan/mt, leading to a MoM increase in the monthly average price and driving up the aluminum cost. SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index during the period (5.26-6.25) was 3,235.7 yuan/mt, up 9.3% MoM. The average spot price of SMM A00 aluminum in June 2025 was approximately 20,453 yuan/mt (May 26-June 25), with the average profit of the domestic aluminum industry at around 3,908 yuan/mt. As of month-end June 2025, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum reached 43.82 million mt, with the industry's highest full cost rising to 19,416 yuan/mt. If the industry uses the monthly average price for calculation, 100% of the domestic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in June.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: The Weak Supply and Demand Pattern Persists, SHFE Tin Maintains Fluctuating Trend Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Guidance] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Opened at 267,800 yuan/mt, maintained a fluctuating trend during the day, and surged sharply in the closing session to close at 269,840 yuan/mt (up 0.63% from the previous day), with an intraday range of 266,160-269,840 yuan/mt. Trading volume: 70,070 lots (down 35.6% from the previous day), open interest: 31,494 lots (a slight increase of 10 lots).

Demand side, most downstream SiMn alloy plants are in an active inquiry period. Manganese ore at Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port is experiencing slow destocking compared to last week (WoW), so miners' offers are relatively firm. Additionally...

[Fundamentals: Strong supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc falls significantly]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2508 contract opened at 22,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc reached a high of 22,360 yuan/mt, then declined continuously, hitting a low of 22,105 yuan/mt during the session. Subsequently, SHFE zinc rebounded slightly to near the daily average line, closing down at 22,255 yuan/mt, a drop of 110 yuan/mt...