Key Takeaways from Aluminum Forum of Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2025

On June 5, 2025, the Aluminum Forum of Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2025, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., with the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs as the government supporter, and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), Jakarta Futures Exchange, and Sxcoal, successfully concluded in Jakarta, Indonesia!

The event brought together industry leaders, experts, and corporate representatives from around the world to delve into key topics including global bauxite and alumina market analysis and outlook, aluminum supply chain and market dynamics, aluminum industry development in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, prospects for Indonesia's bauxite sector, and global aluminum market trends and prospects.

Melati Sarnita, Business Development Director at PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Indonesia's state-owned aluminum company), stated that Indonesia's aluminum consumption is projected to surge by approximately 600% over the next 30 years. Demand will particularly rise in sectors like EVs and renewable energy (e.g., PV solar, where deploying 1 MW requires about 21 mt of aluminum). From 2018 to 2024, Indonesia relied heavily on aluminum imports, with imports expected to account for 54% of supply by 2024, while domestic production contributed only 46%. Thus, accelerating downstream bauxite processing and advancing aluminum industrialization are critical to meet growing domestic demand. The target is to achieve annual production of 900,000 mt of aluminum by 2030, supported by a refinery (SGAR Phase II) with an annual capacity of 2 million mt of alumina.

Duncan Hobbs, Research Director at Concord Resources, noted that the pace of global market recovery and fluctuations in the Chinese market will significantly impact the aluminum sector. Industrial production remains the primary driver of aluminum consumption, with YoY changes explaining over 75% of annual consumption variations. Industry performance, especially in transport and construction—highly aluminum-dependent sectors—also plays a key role. Global industrial output is expected to return to its normal trend in 2025 after subdued performance during 2023–2024. While accelerated production may boost aluminum consumption, downward risks persist under current policy conditions.

Cathy Liu, SMM's Global Aluminum Market Analyst based in London, forecasted a significant surplus of around 12 million mt in the global bauxite market in 2025, maintaining downward pressure on prices. The tightening of policies in Guinea is unlikely to immediately cause a supply deficit, but it will pose long-term cost risks. In the alumina market, China's alumina capacity has surged, and it is expected that there will be a supply surplus of 4.11 million mt in 2025, exerting downward pressure on domestic prices. It is projected that global bauxite production will increase significantly by 2025, with a production surplus of approximately 12 million mt, shifting the market conditions from undersupply to oversupply.

June 4

Aluminum Forum

Keynote Speech:

The Future of Aluminum: Sustainable Development and Innovation

Speaker:

Ron Knapp, Advisor to China Hongqiao Group Limited

Keynote Speech:

Aluminum Industry Development in Indonesia and Southeast Asia

Speaker:

Melati Sarnita, Business Development Director of PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium

MIND ID Maintains Strong Government Support Through Danantara and MSOE

On March 22, 2025, the government transferred all its Series B shares in the company to Danantara's operating holding company as additional capital contribution to the operating holding company. • After this transfer, Danantara's operating holding company holds 99.99% of MIND ID's Series B shares, while the government holds 1 Series A Dwiwarna share through MSOE. • According to Government Regulation No. 15 of 2025, the government will continue to exercise control over relevant state-owned enterprises by holding Series A Dwiwarna shares. Therefore, the ultimate control of MIND ID remains in the hands of the government.

Unlocking Value by Building a Resilient Aluminum Ecosystem

Over the next 30 years, Indonesia's aluminum consumption is expected to grow by approximately 600%. In particular, the demand for aluminum will increase significantly in the fields of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy, such as photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, where the deployment of 1 megawatt (MW) of PV power generation requires approximately 21 mt of aluminum.

From 2018 to 2024, Indonesia's aluminum supply has mainly relied on imports. It is projected that by 2024, the import ratio will be as high as 54%, while the contribution of the domestic aluminum industry will only be 46%.

Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the downstream processing of bauxite and promote the industrialization of aluminum to meet the growing domestic demand.

The goal is to achieve an annual production capacity of 900,000 mt of aluminum by 2030, supported by a refinery with an annual production capacity of 2 million mt of alumina (SGAR Phase II).

[Roundtable Discussion] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics: Leading the Global Aluminum Industry

Moderator:

Dr., Managing Director of SMM London OfficeYanchen Wang

Panelists:

Winston Ng, Project Director of PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry

Enoch Kwok, General Manager of Aluminum Bahrain's Asia Office

Derek Berg, CEO/Owner of Berg Engineering

Yana Xia, Director of Bauxite and Alumina Markets at Alcoa Corporation

Keynote Speech:

Aluminum Market Preview

Speaker:

Duncan Hobbs, Head of Research at Concord Resources

The pace of global market recovery and fluctuations in the Chinese market will have a significant impact on the aluminum market.

The primary driver of aluminum consumption is industrial production. Statistical data indicates that YoY changes in industrial production explain over 75% of the YoY changes in aluminum consumption. Additionally, industry performance also has a notable impact on aluminum consumption, particularly in the transportation and construction sectors, which have a higher dependency on aluminum.

Global industrial production is expected to return to normal trend levels by 2025, following a period of underperformance from 2023-2024. While accelerated industrial production may contribute to growth in aluminum consumption, there are still downside risks under the current policy environment.

Furthermore, output in the automotive and construction sectors is expected to be lower than the overall industrial production level, particularly with construction sector growth slowing down in 2025 compared to 2024.

China accounts for over 60% of global aluminum consumption. However, the current structural economic challenges suggest that future growth may slow down.

The real estate market is experiencing a structural decline, primarily due to a decreasing population and falling housing prices. This situation has weakened consumer confidence and spending power.

Additionally, there is overcapacity in manufacturing, particularly in the aluminum smelting sector, leading to falling prices for producers. Meanwhile, aluminum exports are also facing increasing restrictions.

Europe accounts for approximately 10% of global aluminum consumption, and the market has been performing weakly recently. However, a limited recovery is expected from a low base.

In 2024, European aluminum consumption is expected to stabilize at around 7.4 million mt, close to the lowest level in a decade. This is partly attributed to the impact of rising energy prices. However, with energy prices pulling back, monetary policy easing, and more robust fiscal stimulus measures, a limited recovery is anticipated, with Southern Europe expected to outperform Northern Europe.

Keynote Speech:

The Interrelationship Between Environmental, Social, and Governance Risks in the Aluminum Supply Chain

Speaker:

Cameron Jones, Assurance Director at the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative

Sustainability Challenges in 2030 and Beyond

Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change: Promoting industry-wide action to mitigate the impacts of climate change and adapt to new environmental challenges, while ensuring that temperature increases remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Protecting Biodiversity and Restoring Ecosystems: Actively taking measures to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services, particularly focusing on the reclamation of bauxite mines.

Promoting Circular Economy: Reducing metal losses, creating solutions for waste and pollution, promoting the restoration of natural systems, and advancing the efficient use and recycling of resources.

Strengthening Local Actions and Human Rights Protection: Enhancing local action capabilities, building relevant capacities, and conducting supply chain due diligence to ensure respect for and protection of human rights.

Increase in reporting and disclosure requirements.

Governments intensifying their scrutiny of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards.

Media and civil society increasingly scrutinizing ESG standards.

In supply chain management, downstream enterprises desire more information from upstream links.

Implementing "Know Your Customer" (KYC) measures.

Climate change is no longer the sole focus—attention to this topic has waned.

Increased investor concerns (including those of "activist shareholders").

[Roundtable Discussion] Unlocking the Potential of Indonesia's Aluminum Industry: Strengthening Global Partnerships for Sustainable Growth

Moderator:

Xinyi Liu, Global Aluminum Market Analyst, SMM London Office

Panelists:

Mark Roggensinger, Chief Market Analyst, Hydro

Ilham Iskandar Siregar, Head of Nickel and Bauxite Trading, PT Antam

Matthew Goerke, Partner, Herbert Smith Freehills

Melati Sarnita, Business Development Director, Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Inalum)

Keynote Speech:

Application and Detection Standards for High-Temperature Anti-Oxidation Functional Ceramic Coatings on Prebaked Anodes

Speaker:

Guojing Hu, Technical Director, Jiangsu Lvtianhe Energy-Saving and Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.

Jiangsu Lvtianhe Energy-Saving and Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise dedicated to the research, development, and promotion of energy-saving technologies for the electrolytic aluminum industry.

With two decades of in-depth research on inorganic materials, leveraging the powerful R&D platform of the Henan Provincial Engineering Technology Center, and engaging in close industry-university-research collaborations with four key inorganic material institutions, including Wuhan University of Science and Technology and Zhengzhou University, Lvtianhe has gained a profound understanding of the core needs of electrolytic aluminum industry technology, thereby creating a unique integrated technical solution for anode anti-oxidation functional ceramic coatings. The solution has been successfully applied to numerous large aluminum plants both domestically and overseas, achieving remarkable results, with an average carbon savings of 15 kg/t-Al per ton of aluminum. The implementation of this technology not only significantly reduces carbon emissions and the amount of carbon residue salvaged but also contributes greatly to environmental protection. It is worth mentioning that in July 2023, Lvtianhe independently developed and launched an automatic intelligent online spraying device for the electrolytic aluminum industry, successfully solving the "last mile" challenge in promoting coating technology within the industry and bringing about a revolutionary technological transformation for the entire sector.

Keynote Speech:

Outlook for the Indonesian Bauxite Industry

Speaker:

Handi Sutanto, Senior Vice President of Commercial and Transformation at ANTAM

(This speech is not open to the public at the speaker's request)

Keynote Speech:

Global Electrolytic Aluminum Market Development and Prospects

Speaker:

Joyce Li, Macquarie Commodities Strategist (Li Hao)

(This speech is not open to the public at the speaker's request)

Keynote Speech:

High-Grade Bauxite with Strategic Growth Potential in Central Queensland, Australia

Speaker:

Dr. Qingtao Zeng, Managing Director of Australasian Metals Ltd

MONOGORILBY Bauxite Project

The project is located in central Queensland, Australia.

The project's advantages include the following:

1. Convenient transportation:It is easily accessible via sealed roads, just a 350-kilometer drive from Brisbane.

2. Railway connectivity:It is adjacent to the railway system leading to the Port of Bundaberg, with access southward to the Port of Brisbane.

3. Well-developed infrastructure:It is close to the state power grid and has an adequate water supply.

4. Government support:It is located in a mining-friendly zone and enjoys strong support from the government and local community.

The MONOGORILBY Bauxite Project has completed a reverse circulation drilling program of 94 holes, with the first JORC estimate conducted by Mining One, an independent mining consultancy.

The project has further exploration potential, as surface samples indicate high-grade bauxite outside the existing resource area: some samples have alumina content as high as 52.8% and reactive silica content as low as 1.4%.

Keynote Speech:

Embracing a Green Future: The Path to Sustainable Development in the Aluminum Industry

Speaker:

Cathy Liu, Global Aluminum Market Analyst at SMM London Office

Cathy Liu, Global Aluminum Market Analyst at SMM London Office, shared insights on the topic of "Overview and Outlook of the Global Bauxite and Alumina Markets."She stated that the global bauxite market is expected to have a significant surplus of approximately 12 million mt in 2025, continuing to exert downward pressure on prices. Tightening policies in Guinea are unlikely to immediately cause a supply deficit but will bring long-term cost risks. Regarding the alumina market, China's alumina capacity has surged, and it is expected that there will be a supply surplus of 4.11 million mt in 2025, exerting downward pressure on domestic prices.

Global Bauxite Market Review and Outlook

It is projected that by 2025, global bauxite production will increase significantly, with an oversupply reaching approximately 12 million mt, shifting the market condition from undersupply to oversupply.

The global bauxite surplus will reach around 12 million mt in 2025, mainly due to a significant increase in Guinea's production.

China's bauxite market will shift from undersupply to surplus, with a noticeable increase in the surplus amount.

With the increase in market supply, the prices of imported and domestic bauxite will fall significantly.

In recent years, influenced by stricter environmental protection and safety regulations, bauxite production in the Shanxi and Henan regions has decreased significantly.

Since 2019, national bauxite production has declined by 44.6%. Production in the Shanxi and Henan regions dropped sharply in 2024 due to environmental protection and safety inspections, but it is expected to partially recover in 2025.

The above is the entire content of the Aluminum Forum of the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2025. Thank you all industry colleagues for your attention~