[SMM Analysis: Review of the EMM Market in 2024 and Outlook for 2025]
I. Price Aspect:
Quarterly Price Review:
2024 Q1:
Supply side, some EMM plants resumed production after the Chinese New Year, and combined with the previous inventory buildup on the supply side, EMM supply remained at a relatively high level. Demand side, steel mills resumed production at a slow pace after the Chinese New Year, with purchasing sentiment remaining stable and spot transactions relatively steady. Overall, supply and demand showed a surplus, putting downward pressure on manganese prices.
2024 Q2:
Due to unexpected disruptions in Australian ore shipments, manganese ore prices surged significantly. Although EMM primarily relies on domestic ore, the rise in manganese alloy prices stimulated a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes for EMM. Supply side, manganese-related prices fluctuated upward, prompting idle EMM plants to resume production, leading to an increase in overall EMM production. Demand side, the significant rise in manganese alloy prices made EMM a more economical alternative raw material, boosting demand from downstream stainless steel mills. Supported by downstream demand and the sentiment to stand firm on quotes, spot prices for EMM fluctuated upward.
2024 Q3:
Supply side, with a slight reduction in electricity costs, production costs for EMM plants decreased, and some EMM plants undergoing maintenance gradually resumed production, resulting in a relatively sufficient overall supply of EMM. Demand side, steel mills were affected by high temperatures and the rainy season, leading to increased shutdowns and maintenance, marking the traditional off-season for demand. Steel mills showed weaker enthusiasm for EMM procurement. Additionally, due to production losses, steel mills exerted pressure on raw material prices, showing low acceptance of high-priced EMM, causing spot prices for EMM to fluctuate downward.