[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Despite consecutive inventory buildups in weekly social inventory, maintaining a low range has provided support for copper prices] On July 10, spot prices of SMM #1 copper cathode against the 2507 contract for the current month were reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 15 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt MoM. Looking ahead today, with firm price spreads between futures contracts, spot premiums of SHFE copper are expected to decline further...

[LME Copper Slightly Falls, SHFE Copper Weakens; Tariff Shadow Weighs on Copper Prices] On the macro side, Trump sent tariff letters to eight countries, including Brazil (with a potential 50% tariff). Trump again indicated on social media platforms that a 50% tariff would be imposed on imported copper, effective from August 1, 2025. The increase in copper tariffs would make the spot copper market in non-US regions relatively loose, thereby putting pressure on copper prices. Meanwhile, the June minutes of the US Fed showed that officials had differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, ruling out an interest rate cut in July. Policy uncertainty weighed on risk appetite, jointly putting pressure on copper prices.

According to reports from multiple media outlets, including CCTV, US President Trump stated during a cabinet meeting at the White House on July 8 that a new 50% tariff would be imposed on all copper imported into the US, though he did not disclose the specific date when the new tariff would take effect. However, US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick also pointed out on the same day that the Department of Commerce had completed its investigation into copper imports, and Lutnick expected the new tariff to "likely be implemented by the end of July or August 1." The announcement of this tariff policy had a significant impact on the global copper market. LME copper, SHFE copper, and COMEX copper, which are important indicators of international copper prices, all experienced fluctuations and adjustments. COMEX copper hit a new all-time high of $5.8955/lb during trading on July 8, but then entered a consolidation phase after reaching its peak. As of around 15:32 on July 9, COMEX copper was trading at $5.6135/lb, down 1.27%; LME copper was trading at $9,628/mt, down 1.66%; and SHFE copper was down 1.36%, trading at 78,400 yuan/mt.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US to Impose Substantial Copper Tariffs, US Copper Prices Surge] On July 8, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode against the 2507 contract for the current month were reported at a range of 40-130 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt MoM. Looking ahead to today, with several trading days remaining before delivery, it is expected that suppliers will continue to actively sell their cargo when the price spread between futures contracts (BACK) for the next month exceeds 200 yuan/mt, and there is still a possibility for spot premiums for SHFE copper to decline further...

On July 8 (Tuesday), after US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a 50% import tariff on imported copper, Chile, the world's largest copper producer, was left in a state of wait-and-see, caught off guard, with the country's top miner still holding out hope for an exemption.

On July 8 (Tuesday), US copper prices surged by over 12%, reaching a record high of over $12,330 per mt, driven by disruptions caused by US tariff policies.

[SMM Analysis] According to SMM, the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises in June 2025 was 74.78%, up 2.62 percentage points MoM and 2.75 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 79.57%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 49.79%, and that of small enterprises was 65.09%...

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises stood at 67.44% in June 2025, down 2.68 percentage points MoM and 0.12 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 70.67%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 64.09%, and that of small enterprises was 62.58%.