Dollar, Oil, Gold, Base Metals, Ferrous Metals All Go Down, EIA Cuts Oil Price Forecast

Published: May 10, 2023 15:01 (GMT+8)
Source: SMM
SHANGHAI, May 10 (SMM) - Crude oil: As of CST 11:34, WTI and Brent crude oil fell 0.75% and 0.74% respectively.

SHANGHAI, May 10 (SMM) - Crude oil: As of CST 11:34, WTI and Brent crude oil fell 0.75% and 0.74% respectively.

The decline came after industry data showed a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles, while the market awaited U.S. inflation data for April, which could provide direction for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on May 9 that pessimism about a weak global economy, inflation and continued turmoil in the banking industry overshadowed concerns about OPEC's production cuts, dragging down the outlook for crude oil, gasoline and diesel prices.

In its short-term energy outlook for May, the EIA lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2023 by US$6.36/barrel to US$78.65/barrel, much lower than its forecast of US$85/barrel in April. Similarly, the agency predicts that WTI crude oil will average $73.62 a barrel in 2023, $5.62 lower than last month's estimate.

In terms of the U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar index opened higher but moved lower during the session. As of CST 11:34, the U.S. dollar index was at 101.55, a slight drop of 0.09%. The market believes that there will be no immediate breakthrough in the US debt ceiling negotiations. The market is currently awaiting the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for April to be released on Wednesday. On Tuesday, New York Fed President Williams said that the inflation rate is still too high; before the June meeting, the Fed still needs to decide the next policy direction based on the latest economic data; if further interest rate hikes are really necessary, the Fed will take Action; a decision to raise rates will be made at each meeting.

Macro: The China General Chamber of Commerce recently released the China Retail Industry Prosperity Index for May, with a figure of 51.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the expansion territory for five consecutive months. The data show that the overall recovery of the retail industry is taking shape, and the business confidence of enterprises has further improved. Today will see the release of the annual rate of various RMB loan balances in China in April, the final value of the CPI annual rate in April in Germany, the annual rate of CPI in the United States in April without seasonal adjustment, and the annual rate of core CPI in the United States in April without seasonal adjustment. In addition, the EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report. Other important upcoming events include: European Central Bank executive member Schnabel's speech, US President Biden's alleged meeting with four leaders of the US Congress on the debt ceiling issue at the White House, the US House of Representatives panel's discussion on Silicon Valley Bank Hearings with Signature Banks.

For the metal market: Base metals on the SHFE generally fell. Only SHFE lead rose 0.24%. SHFE nickel fell 2.97%, tin dropped 2.41%, while SHFE copper, aluminum and zinc all fell within 0.4%.

Ferrous metals also mostly went down. Iron ore fell 0.14%. Rebar and HRC fell by 0.94% and 1.4% respectively. Stainless steel fell 0.35%. Coking coal fell 2.9%, and coke fell 2.07%.

As of CST 11:34, LME base metals mostly went down. LME lead fell 0.42%. LME aluminum, nickel, tin and zinc all fell within 0.4%. Only LME copper rose slightly by 0.03%.

In terms of precious metals, as of CST 11:34, COMEX precious metal futures all went down, COMEX gold fell 0.23%, and COMEX silver fell 0.15%.

More popular news

CITI Research Lowers Price Forecast for Nickel, Aluminium and Zinc in 2023-2024 But Bets on Higher Copper Prices


Chinese Lithium Giant Denies Rumours, More Players Extend Industry Chain to Downstream Automakers


Goldman Sachs: China will be the only major economy with positive growth this year, bullish bets on new energy vehicles and biotechnology in the long run


Key April Chinese Economic Data Are Released, Including Real Estate Investment, Industrial Added Value and Consumer Goods Retail Sales


SMM Comment: SHFE And LME Base Metals Mostly Rise, Ferrous Metals And Crude Oil Also Outperform, US Dollar Softens


China’s Central Bank Releases Key April Economic Data: RMB Loans Issued to the Real Economy, Newly-Added Social Financing, Newly Added RMB Loans, Balance of M2, M1 and M0, All Recording Enormous Growth       

      

IMF: Asia-Pacific To Contribute More Than 70% To Global Economic Growth, With China Being Key Engine


Dollar, Oil, Gold, Base Metals, Ferrous Metals All Go Down, EIA Cuts Oil Price Forecast


IMF: Western Sanctions against Russia Are Ineffective, European Economy Faces Multiple Challenges


Chinese Property Market Still In Downturn, But On Track To Recover With Improving Economy And Favourable Policies, National Bureau Of Statistics Says


China To Actively Expand Domestic Effective Demand And Boost New Energy Vehicle Sales, National Development And Reform Commission Says         


Goldman Sachs, Barclays warn: Fed will not cut interest rates this year

      

Balance of M2, M1 and M0 All Rise at the End of April, China’s Central Bank Says


India to become Europe’s top supplier of refined oil products after massive purchases of Russian oil


EIA Cuts Brent and WTI Oil Price Forecasts for 2023 as Recession Fears, Inflation and Banking Crisis Overshadow OPEC's Production Cuts

  

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BoA Are Pessimistic, Here Is Why


Global Chip Market Will Decline 20% This Year

      

Domestic Steel Scrap Prices Plummeted In April


Investment Tycoon Charlie Munger Warns A Storm Is Brewing In US Commercial Property Market And The Golden Age Of Investment Is Over      


Chile’s Latest Move Marks One Step Closer to the Establishment of Lithium Version of OPEC


Sunwoda's "Flash Charge Battery" Can Power Electric Cars 1,000 Kilometres on A Single Charge


Massive Aluminium Capacity In China To Be Resumed Or Put Into Operation In H2 2023


"No One Understands Global Economy Better Than I Do"! Tesla CEO Musk Warns of Severe Recession Looming Large


Accelerating RMB Globalisation Threatens Dollar’s Dominance          

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
14 hours ago
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
Read More
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
[SMM Gold Flash] Lake Victoria Gold reported new metallurgical testwork for weathered ore at Area C of its fully permitted Imwelo Gold Project in Tanzania. Attrition scrubbing followed by desliming increased 24-hour gold extraction from 49.99% to 84.54% in agitated-leach testing. Bottle-roll recovery reached 88.15% after pretreatment, while gravity-recoverable gold also increased. The work was conducted by Nesch Mintech Tanzania in Mwanza. The company has identified attrition scrubbing and desliming as the preferred pretreatment route for further optimisation of the clay-rich near-surface material. Lake Victoria Gold says the results complement earlier work on deeper material, where recoveries of approximately 96–97% were reported. Importantly, the reported recoveries relate to tested pretreated fractions and do not yet represent overall whole-ore plant recovery; further mass-balance and optimisation work is planned.
14 hours ago
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
14 hours ago
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
Read More
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
[SMM Gold Flash] Aurum Resources reported new assay results from 22 diamond holes totalling 6,172.8 metres at the BST1 deposit at its Boundiali Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire. The results include 2.63 metres at 76.74 g/t gold from 195.2 metres, including 1.3 metres at 155 g/t, together with 24 metres at 6.31 g/t from 108 metres, including 7 metres at 19.25 g/t. Several intersections extend beyond the existing BST1 resource envelope. The results will feed into Aurum’s planned Boundiali Mineral Resource update targeted for early Q4 2026. The company says mineralisation remains open along strike and at depth, while drilling continues across the project. The results are therefore an exploration and resource-growth development rather than additional production. Boundiali currently has a 3.22-million-ounce JORC Mineral Resource, while Aurum is advancing a definitive feasibility study.
14 hours ago
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
14 hours ago
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
Read More
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
[SMM Gold & PGM Flash] A new study published in the Journal of Commodity Markets finds that platinum has exhibited broader and more persistent co-movement with inflation and real interest rates than gold. Researchers Arusha Cooray and İbrahim Özmen examined monthly data from July 1999 through December 2024 across the US, Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands, using turning-point analysis, wavelet coherence and time-varying Granger-causality methods. The study found gold’s macroeconomic relationships were comparatively weaker and more fragmented, while platinum and silver showed broader synchronization, particularly in the US and Germany.​ The researchers attribute platinum’s stronger macroeconomic sensitivity in part to its substantial industrial exposure, meaning its price reflects not only monetary conditions but also manufacturing activity, investment and supply constraints. The findings do not establish platinum as a universally superior inflation hedge: the relationships varied across countries, periods and monetary-policy regimes. Instead, the study highlights a fundamental difference between the metals, with gold’s broader monetary and defensive role producing a different response to inflation and real-rate conditions.
14 hours ago