What stage is semiconductor currently in from the perspective of inventory cycle? The expansion of the scissors gap between supply and demand creates three major opportunities

Samsung Electronics factory, which has no spare capacity due to the explosion of orders, may expand its outsourcing business to UMC (UMC) and grid core (Global Foundaries) for computer general-purpose chips.

Data show that in the global wafer foundry market, Samsung's market share ranks second in the world, second only to TSMC. Grid core, UMC and SMIC will be next.

The second echelon manufacturers of leading contract manufacturers are confirming the current situation of extreme shortage of semiconductor chip production capacity. Since the second half of last year, the overall chip production capacity has been in a state of continuous tension, especially 8-inch wafers, and the production progress of the whole plant has been affected recently due to lack of stock.

From the point of view of supply and demand, there is also an impossible triangle of capacity, inventory and demand in semiconductors. a typical semiconductor inventory cycle is divided into four stages: active destocking (both volume and price drop), passive inventory destocking (volume decline and price rise), active inventory replenishment (volume and price rise), and passive inventory replenishment (volume premium).

What is the current stage of semiconductor inventory?

5G, carbon neutralization and other factors promote the expansion of the scissors gap between supply and demand has just begun.

Founder Securities said in a research report released on March 1 that, judging from the supply and demand situation in the last year and the next three years, we are in the second stage, and the expansion of the scissors gap between supply and demand has just begun. At this stage, the supply rigidity overlaps the demand elasticity, which leads to the continuous expansion of the chip supply scissors gap.

In terms of demand, 5G infrastructure + replacement, carbon neutralization (tram + wind power new energy) and driverless (computing revolution) are not only information revolution, but also superimposed energy revolution driven by semiconductors, behind which are semiconductors.

Specifically, first, the smartphone hardware upgrade to further increase the silicon content of the single machine. 5G mobile phone DRAM/FLASH capacity, APSOC/ baseband chip performance, camera CIS number and DieSize significantly increased, 5G mobile phone stand-alone PMIC and RF IC consumption significantly increased, 5G base station construction was more intensive, and the consumption of PMIC and MOSFET was also greatly increased.

Second, according to IDC data, the demand for home study, office and entertainment during the epidemic greatly boosted the demand for PC. According to IDC's forecast, China's PC market will grow by 1.7% in 2020 compared with the same period last year, and China's PC market will grow by 10.7% in 2021.

Third, the improvement of silicon content of new energy vehicles is divided into electric control systems from oil cars to trams (SiC, IGBT, MOSFET), and intelligent systems (CIS, CPU, GPU, vehicle storage, vehicle radio frequency).

Fourth, due to the renewal of home learning, home work and the whole digitalization, the popularity of artificial intelligence applications on the cloud training side is also driving the demand for servers. Nvidia's data center business in the latest financial year is the fastest growing segment of the company.

Finally, the soaring demand for carbon neutralization of photovoltaic and wind power has directly driven the growth of Synchronize's demand for power semiconductors.

From a supply point of view, under normal circumstances, the production expansion cycle of fabs is 12-24 months. Under the impact of the epidemic on demand last year, none of the major fab factories have adjusted the pace of production expansion in time. Founder Securities expects that a new round of capacity supply will be available by the end of this year at the earliest, and the real considerable and effective production capacity will be released after the second quarter of next year. Take Wentai Technology's Nexperia Shanghai 12-inch line as an example, with a design production capacity of 400000 tablets a year, Q2 will not be available until 2022.

A list of the three major opportunities of domestic substitution opportunities industry chain companies

Under the background of mismatch between supply and demand, production capacity has become the most certain opportunity in this period, and the wafer factory has become the chassis for all downstream innovation.

In addition, behind the shortage is the spring tide of production expansion, semiconductor equipment will usher in a round of strong growth.

(SEMI), the international semiconductor industry association, released the latest shipments of semiconductor equipment in North America on February 23rd. In January, shipments from North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers reached an all-time high of US $3.04 billion, an increase of 13.4% from a month earlier and a year-on-year increase of 29.9%.

Founder Securities said that unlike the previous cycle of capacity expansion based on globalization, this capacity expansion will operate under the framework of localization and de-A.

Focusing on the industrial chain company, the wafer manufacturing end companies include: Huarun Micro, Wentai Technology, SMIC, Shilan Micro, Jet Micropower, Yangjie Technology, Changdian Technology, Jingfang Technology, Tongfu Micro Power, Huatian Technology, TCL Technology, BOE A, San'an Integration;

Semiconductor equipment standards include: North Huachuang, Wanye Enterprises, Huafeng Measurement and Control, Changchuan Science and Technology, Zhi Chun Technology, Dazhong Laser, medium and Micro companies, Precision testing Electronics, Jingsheng Mechatronics, Sateng shares;

Semiconductor materials companies are: central shares, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Lion Micro, Jiangfeng Electronics, Jacques Technology, Jingrui shares, Cunninghamia lanceolata shares, Anji Technology, Divine Industry shares.