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Summary of institutional views: gold continues to be bullish on the dollar or volatile
Sep 15,2020 08:46CST
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Precious metal

Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, said gold prices tested the 50-day moving average last week, followed by a 20-day moving average. Nedoss said that if the gold price can maintain the support of $1941 / oz, then its upward trend is intact.

Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive, said the dollar has found some support, so there may be some resistance to gold's short-term upside.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank), pointed out that in the current region, the gold market may still need some gestation, which has not yet reached the low level of the volatile area.

VR Metals/Resource 's Mark Lebovits points out that the recent rebound in the dollar has weighed on gold's performance.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said the gold market looks a little flat at the moment, but there will be a big market soon after. "the triangle shape of the gold price trend is tightening, is about to usher in a breakthrough, and the support below it is solid, so we are optimistic about the upward breakthrough in gold prices."

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, said the long-term bullish fundamentals of gold had not changed. "the downside support is between $1900 and $1920 an ounce, and the upside resistance is around 1970."

Altavest's Michael Armbruster said it was hard to say how gold prices would move in the short term, but investors should wait for buying opportunities in the coming weeks, which could be around $1830 an ounce.

Foreign exchange market

ING said Fed policy appeared to have been largely priced since Fed Chairman Colin Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole meeting, meaning more positive news was needed to push cyclical currencies higher and the dollar lower. We believe that this is unlikely to happen this week because of the fragility of the stock market and high risk sentiment. This suggests that there will be range swings in the dollar index this week. Given the ECB's already very loose monetary policy stance, it will be difficult for it to contain the rise of the euro. The euro / dollar is expected to be bound by a range this week, but it will rise above 1.25 next year. Pressure on sterling is expected to continue to increase this week as there is not enough risk premium to be counted in the currency relative to the urgency of the situation.

Lee Hardman, strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), said: "the market expects the Fed to strengthen its forward guidance and may say that interest rates will remain unchanged for 3-4 years and remain bearish on the dollar."

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank believe that the Fed is likely to disappoint dollar bears. "after setting aside yield curve control as a near-term policy option, FOMC appears to lack a consensus on how to use its balance sheet, which is likely to disappoint investors."

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