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[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the logic of low inventory price has not changed. The price trend of electrolytic aluminum is still strong.
Jul 29,2020 10:00CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting on July 29th Disk: Lomalco closed yesterday at $1725 / ton, up 0.91%, up $15.50 / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2009 contract rose 205yuan / ton, or 0.42%, to 14500 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.13% to 93.766.

Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time surveillance system of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 05:35 eastern time on July 28th, there were 4341201 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection in the United States, including 149052 deaths. Compared with the data from the system about 24 hours ago, the number of confirmed cases in the United States increased by 64345 and the number of deaths increased by 1749. (bearish) 2) API crude oil stocks in the United States fell 6.829 million barrels to 531 million barrels in the week to July 24, and the market is expected to increase by 10 million barrels. The previous value was an increase of 7.544 million barrels. 3) the open market of the central bank will conduct a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 30 billion yuan today, with a net investment of 30 billion yuan on the same day because there is no reverse repurchase due today. The Ministry of Finance invited a tender for the third renewal of the anti-epidemic special treasury bonds (the fourth issue) in 2020 on July 28, with an actual issuance volume of 70 billion yuan, a coupon rate of 2.86%, and a 10-year maturity. According to statistics, as of July 28, 15 issues of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds have been issued, with a total of 930 billion yuan issued, of which 200 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan and 630 billion yuan have been issued for five-year, seven-year and 10-year periods, respectively. (lidocaine)

Fundamentals: 1) Asia-Pacific Science and Technology wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest 600 million yuan in the construction of lightweight aluminum alloy products project; Jinfei motorcycle aluminum wheel production line was put into production in September, and the project can produce 10 million pieces of motorcycle aluminum alloy wheels per year after the project is put into production. 2) Ningxia produced 277000 tons of aluminum in the first half of the year, an increase of 22 percent over the same period last year, and the deep processing rate of electrolytic aluminum rose to 47.4 percent, an increase of 9.3 percent over the same period last year. (neutral) 3) Alumina: there are traders selling at low prices in the north, but large factories are more reluctant to sell, the buyer's electrolytic aluminum plant is waiting to see the falling prices, and the purchasing interest is not high; the spot in the southwest region maintains a tight pattern. Alumina plant quotation is relatively strong, but did not hear of large-scale transactions within days. (neutral) 4) waste aluminum: in terms of the price of waste aluminum, the price of cooked aluminum in southwest China rose slightly by 100 yuan / ton, while prices in other areas remained stable. In terms of imported scrap aluminum, the current overseas zorba (95 metal volume, 2% copper crushed raw aluminum) Malaysia CIF price maintains more than 1000 US dollars / ton, and the processing fee after preliminary sorting, cleaning and treatment is about 100 US dollars / ton, which is still about 1500 yuan / ton lower than the domestic raw aluminum tax price. If imports are liberalized, domestic shocks are inevitable, and all parties remain on the sidelines for imported waste aluminum. (bullish)

Spot aspect: the transaction of the holder is concentrated on the vicinity of rising water of 90 yuan / ton in the same month. Conclusion: from a macro point of view, foreign economies continue to restart, China continues to implement active and prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and there are no obvious negative factors. From a fundamental point of view, the import window of aluminum ingots can be maintained for some time, and the export of electrolytic aluminum inventory is restrained by imports, resulting in a small change in the current inventory level, which is still at a low level of less than 700000 tons. The logic of low inventory price has not changed, and the trend of aluminum price is still strong.

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