Minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting on July 24th: basic metals rose yesterday. Ln aluminum closed at 1707.5 US dollars / ton yesterday, up 0.45%, up 18 US dollars / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract rose 135 yuan / ton, or 0.94%, to 14500 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.2% to 94.790.
Macro aspect: 1) Johns Hopkins University real-time data show that as of July 24, Beijing time, there were more than 4 million confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States, 4005414 cases, and a total of 143820 deaths. (bearish) 2) US Treasury Secretary Nuchin said that the size of the relief bill will be about 1 trillion US dollars, and further bailouts cannot be ruled out. (bullish) 3) the Ministry of Commerce responded to the countervailing investigation conducted by the United States on the so-called "undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate": the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is not undervalued. (neutral) 4) the central bank will carry out a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan today, as 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires today, achieving zero release and zero withdrawal on the same day. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) the global primary aluminum market has an oversupply of 908000 tons from January to May 2020 and 780000 tons in 2019, according to a report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday. The demand for primary aluminum from January to May 2020 was 26.33 million tons, an increase of 285000 tons over the same period in 2019. Demand is measured on an apparent basis, and the full impact of the national blockade imposed to contain the Xinguan pneumonia epidemic may not be fully reflected in trade statistics. 2) on July 20, 2020, the Internal Market Protection Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued notice No. 2020 / 223/AD28 on the official website of the Eurasian Economic Union, making a final anti-dumping adjudication on aluminum strip products originating in China and Azerbaijan. It is suggested that 13.14% anti-dumping duty should be levied on all Chinese enterprises involved in the case, including China Nantong Hengjin Composite Co., Ltd.; 16.18% anti-dumping duty will be levied on the enterprises involved in the case in Azerbaijan, which will be valid for 5 years. The product is aluminum strip with or without coating (except for aluminum strip for aluminum can products) with a thickness of more than 0.2 mm but less than 3 mm. This case involves products under tax numbers 7606119100, 7606122009 and 7606129209. 3) on July 23, SMM counted that the weekly inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China was 6000 to 702000 tons. Except for a slight increase in inventory in Shanghai, there was still no obvious trend of inventory accumulation in other areas. Among them, the inventory of aluminum ingots in East China (Shanghai, Wuxi and Hangzhou) is 425000 tons, and that in South China (South China Sea) is 174000 tons. (Lido) spot: today's holdings are concentrated on rising water around 130 yuan / ton in the same month.
Summary: from a fundamental point of view, SMM statistics on Thursday social inventory still has a certain decline, social demand for electrolytic aluminum is higher than expected, aluminum prices get stable support, spot-driven futures logic remains unchanged, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.