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[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Electrolytic aluminum prices are still supported. In the near future, we need to focus on the changes in the macro situation.
Jul 23,2020 09:55CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

July 23 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday Hulun aluminum ushered in a slight decline. Lun Aluminum closed at 1689.5 US dollars / ton yesterday, down 0.59%, or 10 US dollars / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract fell 5 yuan / ton, or 0.03%, to 14385 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.22% to 94.978.

Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of July 23, 2020, there were 15056149 confirmed cases and 619784 deaths worldwide. Among them, there were 3941741 confirmed cases and 142756 deaths in the United States. (negative) 2) the US side asked the Chinese side to close the Consulate General in Houston, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: strongly condemned that China will make a legitimate and necessary response (negative) 3) the central bank will carry out a 50 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation today. As 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires today, zero delivery and zero return will be achieved on the same day. (lidocaine)

Fundamentals: international: 1) the Eurasian Economic Union has made a final anti-dumping ruling on China-related aluminum strip products; 2) in the face of power supply problems, Rio Tinto may close the Icelandic aluminum smelter. (neutral) 3) MilesProsser, secretary general of the International Aluminum Association, said that global aluminum demand this year is expected to be 5.4% lower than in 2019, which will lead to inventory accumulation (negative) 4) aluminum rods: recently, aluminum rod manufacturers in the north have shown a trend of reducing production or suspending production. Due to the implementation of production restrictions on environmental protection in Jiaozuo, Henan Province, local aluminum rod factories are all in a state of suspension of production, and normal production and operation activities are restricted. Some aluminum rod enterprises in Luoyang area have stopped production due to poor market demand. Several aluminum rod production plants in Inner Mongolia have or are considering implementing production reduction plans, and individual aluminum rod manufacturers in Shandong are more inclined to produce high-end customized aluminum rods with high processing fees. The output of common aluminum rod decreases again and again. On the whole, the supply end of aluminum rod in the north is weaker. (bad luck)

Spot: spot shipments in the East China market increased slightly this morning compared with yesterday, and the turnover of consignors was concentrated on the vicinity of 110 yuan / ton in the same month.

Summary: in the macro aspect, the domestic economic recovery, increase domestic consumption, improve the internal circulation as the primary goal. The international side needs to focus on the current tension between China and the United States. Fundamentals, the current inventory is still low, downstream electrolytic aluminum consumption to profile-based enterprise orders are still relatively abundant, aluminum prices still maintain a strong trend.

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