July 17 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday's night session aluminum partial correction, Lun aluminum closed at 1668.5 US dollars / ton, down 0.60%, down 10 US dollars / ton, Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract fell 0.35%, down 50 yuan / ton, closed at 14145 yuan / ton. The dollar index rose 0.259% to 96.3.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of July 17, 2020, there were 13734518 confirmed cases and 588142 deaths worldwide. Of these, 3558705 were diagnosed and 138185 died in the United States. (negative) 2) according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, China's economic growth changed from negative to positive in the second quarter, from 6.8% year-on-year decline in the first quarter to 3.2%. 3) Bureau of Statistics: from January to June, the national investment in real estate development was 6.278 trillion yuan, up 1.9% from the same period last year, and 0.3% from January to May. China's total retail sales of consumer goods in June fell 1.8% from the same period last year, with an expected growth of 0.5%, and the previous value fell by 2.8%. In June, China's industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, expected to grow by 4.8%, and the previous value increased by 4.4%. The growth rate was 0.4 percentage points faster than in May. (Lido) 4) yesterday, the central bank will carry out 50 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation, as there is no reverse repurchase due, the same day to achieve a net investment of 50 billion yuan. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) slow de-stocking continued, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory weekly decreased by 4000 tons to 708000 tons. (Lido) 2) SMM statistics: aluminum rod inventory decreased by 7200 tons to 65000 tons compared with last Thursday. Inventory in Foshan, Wuxi and Nanchang declined, inventory in Changzhou increased slightly, and inventory in Huzhou remained flat. China's primary aluminum production rose to a six-month high in June, with daily output hitting a record high as new smelting projects expanded production to cash out as domestic aluminum prices continued to rise brightly. China produced 3.02 million tons of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in June, up 0.8 per cent from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. Based on official estimates, June production was the highest in a single month since December, up 1.4 per cent from May. China's primary aluminium production from January to June was 17.89 million tons, up 1.7 per cent from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Statistics. (bullish)
Yesterday, the transaction price in Wuxi and Shanghai was between 14510 and 14530 yuan / ton, which was 300 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous day, while the rising water to the surface was between 280 won / ton. The transaction price in Hangzhou area was between 14530 and 14550 yuan / ton, and the aluminum price fell in the later period of 11:00, and the market price was concentrated in 14460 house 14490 yuan / ton. In the morning, the inquiry among traders was active, and the trading heat increased after 10: 00, but the aluminum fell too much in the later period. Although the price of the holder was lowered, the market wait-and-see mood gradually increased, and there was not much transaction in the later period. It was normal for a large family to receive goods yesterday, but on the whole, it was OK to buy and sell among traders. Downstream on-demand procurement, due to the excessive decline in aluminum prices, slightly hesitant to buy goods. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre. This morning, spot transactions focused on rising water around 280 yuan / ton in the same month.
Summary: stock index futures fell sharply during the day yesterday, Shanghai aluminum bulls withdrew for three consecutive days, and macro market sentiment in the capital market led the downward correction of Shanghai aluminum prices. Fundamentals, SMM statistics yesterday electrolytic aluminum, aluminum bar social inventory is still slightly narrowed, with yesterday's aluminum prices fell, electrolytic aluminum spot market trading is OK, the holder quotes down but still have the willingness to push up prices, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to have limited downward space.
