SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes panel: yesterday's fundamental metal rose generally, Lun Aluminum closed at 1690 US dollars / ton yesterday, up 0.06%, or 1 US dollars / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract rose 0.55%, up 80 yuan / ton, to close at 14730 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.09 per cent to 96.565.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of July 14, 2020, there were 13026225 confirmed cases and 571685 deaths worldwide. Of these, 3352696 were diagnosed and 135524 died in the United States. As of July 13, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 693.97 billion yuan, an increase of 15.235 billion yuan over the previous trading day; the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 637.946 billion yuan, an increase of 15.299 billion yuan over the previous trading day; and the two cities totaled 1.331916 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.534 billion yuan over the previous trading day, an increase of 11 days in a row. Li Keqiang: strengthen the effectiveness of policy implementation, increase the intensity of reform and opening up, stimulate the vitality of the main body of the market, and stabilize the basic economic market. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) at 2: 00 a.m. on July 12, the second phase of Guangyuan Zhongfu Green Aluminum Project has an annual output of 250000 tons of green aluminum project, and the charging and operation of the main transformer is normal, indicating that the project can be officially put into production. July 13, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 712000 tons, the same as last Thursday. Inventory in East China and South China Sea is a little tired, while inventory in Gongyi region has decreased. (negative) 3) Alumina: the upward transmission of downstream profits leads to a rise in alumina prices, downstream electrolytic aluminum and some traders have inquiry actions, but there is a certain wait-and-see mentality to the recent increase. 4) according to feedback from aluminum foil enterprises, orders for products such as air conditioning foil, food packaging foil and beer sealing foil performed well in June. Due to the gradual hot weather, the market demand for beer beverages and air conditioners increased, and related foil orders increased. Feedback on products such as tobacco foil, drug foil and electronic foil was mediocre. Although drug foil orders were popular from April to June, remarkable results were achieved with the strict control of the epidemic in China. The popularity of drug foil is gradually receding. in addition, orders for brazing foil remain constrained by the weakness of the automobile market. (lidocaine)
Yesterday morning, the spot price in Shanghai was 15380 Mel 15400 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Wuxi was 15390 Mel 15410 yuan / ton. With the rapid rise of aluminum futures, the spot price rose around 11:00 to 15410 Mel 15430 yuan / ton. As the aluminum futures fell gradually after 11: 00, the spot price was concentrated again in 15380RMB15400 / ton, and the price in Wuxi was slightly higher than that in Shanghai. A large family did not receive the goods in East China yesterday. In the morning, there are many inquiries in the market, and the holders raise the price, but the actual transaction is not much. The spot transaction heat goes up after 10: 30, but most of the middlemen reverse goods to enhance the market trading activity. Due to the lack of large quantities of transactions, the overall transaction among traders is poor. Consumption in the lower reaches was light yesterday, as aluminum prices rose more than 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, downstream fear of heights reached a peak, replenishment is very few. The overall transaction in East China is poor. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain a range of shocks, the holder quoted at 15300 yuan / ton, the price of 30 yuan / ton, light afternoon trading, traders have wait-and-see, the actual transaction is very few. The decline in contracts widened in the month this morning, with some holders selling spot goods and the market traded near flat water that month. As delivery approaches, the monthly gap narrows rapidly.
Summary: from a macro point of view, with the gradual recovery of the domestic economy and active funds in the capital market, stock index futures have recorded a large increase in recent days, and macro-profit sentiment is high. Fundamentals, yesterday SMM electrolytic aluminum society inventory quantity is the same as last Thursday, but still low, with the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the spot market price sentiment is still the same, electrolytic aluminum prices are still strongly supported by fundamentals. It is expected that the price of electrolytic aluminum is still strong and volatile in the short term.