A brief comment on SMM
The strong performance of copper in Shanghai today is mainly due to the positive superimposed fundamentals of sustained macroeconomic easing, the scale of social financing in China in June far exceeded the value and forecast, and remained at a high level as a whole, and continued monetary easing provided positive factors for the expected improvement of the capital market. The China Automobile Association released auto production and sales figures for June, up 22.5% and 11.6% from a year earlier, breaking the all-time high of production and sales in June, indicating that terminal manufacturing continues to pick up and macro optimism is good for copper prices. Fundamentals, Chile copper mine news again, Chile Antofagasta Minerals's Zaldivar copper mining union said that the copper mine workers voted to strike after rejecting the wage agreement. As soon as the news came out, the market worried about the supply strain caused by the copper strike in Chile, and the supply side remained tight, supporting the high price of copper. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 52340 yuan / ton in the morning. after the opening, the copper price was arranged horizontally around the position of 52640 yuan / ton, and then the bulls continued to increase their positions to drive the copper price up, climbing a daily high of 53510 yuan / ton, followed by a brief decline, and then rebounded. Copper prices opened in the afternoon for horizontal finishing, the center of gravity stabilized at 53180 yuan / ton position. Near the close, some bulls fell into the bag, and copper prices fell slightly and finally closed at 52880 yuan / ton, up 2380 yuan, or 4.71%. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper reduced its position by 908 to 115000, mainly as short positions were reduced, and the position was about to be completed. Next, focus on the monthly change of the main contract; trading volume increased by 119000 to 272000. Shanghai Copper 07 contract within the day accelerated reduction of 5290 positions to 7985 hands, mainly for short positions. 09 contracts significantly increased positions by 9259 hands to 108000 hands, and daily positions increased by more than 10,000 hands, mainly by bulls.
Today, Shanghai copper closed, MACD red column has increased, and the lower high jump is far from the multiple moving averages, volume price increase bullish forces are still gathering, the technical point of view is bullish copper price. Wait for the outer disk guidelines at night to test whether the bulls can continue to make efforts to support copper prices to continue to rise.
Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 30 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, the transaction price of copper is 52700 yuan / ton ~ 53280 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper is 52720 yuan / ton ~ 53300 yuan / ton. Driven by the bullish atmosphere, the global market showed a phenomenon of floating red in an all-round way. Lun Copper rose to a high in nearly two years, and the price of copper in Shanghai rose by more than 5%, soaring by more than 2, 000, rising to a high of 53400 yuan / ton, and the holders mainly exchanged cash at a high level. although the quotation in the morning market started around 30 yuan per ton, there was a price reduction tide very quickly, and flat copper was the first to drop to about 10 yuan per tonne. Good copper quoted a rise of 20 to 30 yuan per ton. But the market is still lack of interest, few transactions; At about 10 o'clock, flat copper was generally quoted as flat water, and the price of good copper rose by 10 yuan to 20 yuan per ton, but the actual transaction was at a lower price, especially by the end of the afternoon, it could be heard that part of the flat copper price could be reduced to 10 yuan / ton. Today, the purchase volume downstream is rare, and the wet method is as low as 80 yuan 60 yuan / ton. The commodity market has soared in an all-round way, but the spot market is far less than the strong performance of futures. Holders actively exchange cash at high prices and strive to close a deal. Buyers are afraid of high prices, and there is a lack of buying in the market. However, in the face of the approach of delivery, the price difference between the current month and the next month has changed, and the near-weak and far-strong pattern makes the holders unwilling to trade at a discount. If this pattern is maintained before delivery, the spot quotation will be deadlocked at the current quotation level, which is difficult to lower the price and raise the water.
Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province rose 80 yuan / ton to the monthly contract, with an average price of 80 yuan / ton, while wet copper was quoted at 30 to 40 yuan / ton, with an average price of 70 yuan / ton. The average price of electrolytic copper is 53010 yuan / ton up 2280 yuan / ton, and the average price of wet-process copper is 52950 yuan / ton up 2290 yuan / ton. Spot market: the arrival of imported copper and domestic copper increased significantly over the weekend, stocks increased significantly by more than 4,000 tons, and the overall inventory rose again to 20,000 tons. In addition, the price of copper futures rose by more than 5% today. Against the backdrop of a big increase in inventories and copper futures prices, holders continue to reduce the level of copper to 60 yuan / ton at around 11:00, while good copper is maintained at 110 yuan / ton near the delivery price, and wet-process copper is down to 20 yuan / ton. 30 yuan / ton. However, even so, the downstream demand for receiving goods is still very low, only to maintain the need to purchase. Overall, high copper prices discouraged trading, and trading was dismal today.
Today's warehouse receipt quotation is $105 / ton, the average price is $5 / ton higher than last Friday, and the bill of lading price is $80 / ton, which is $4.50 / ton higher than last Friday, QP August. LME0-3 has a premium of US $6.55 / ton and an import loss of around 100RMB / ton.
Market activity warmed up on Monday, mainly because the improvement in import prices last Friday night led to an increase in demand, but the turnover remained light. Traders' expectations of opening the price comparison in August after the change of month are heating up again, raising their quotations one after another to US $5: 10. The price of the ordinary fire bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong in late July is generally around US $95 / ton, while the wet bill of lading has risen to more than US $80. Although the buyer's inquiry is positive, the high superimposed premium quickly suppresses the buyer's mood of receiving goods, so he maintains a cautious wait-and-see state. In the morning, I heard that the transaction price of the mainstream fire bill of lading in Hong Kong at the end of the month was around US $90 / ton. Warehouse receipt prices have also been raised at the same time. At present, the price of good copper warehouse receipt is quoted around 110 US dollars / ton, and the transaction has not been heard.
At present, the transaction price of fire good copper warehouse receipt is around 105 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire method 100 US dollars / ton, wet method 90 yuan / ton; good copper bill of lading is 94 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire method 90 US dollars / ton, wet method 80 US dollars / ton.
LME copper stocks today were 176350 tonnes, down 4725 tonnes, or 2.61 per cent, from the previous day.
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