SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes panel: yesterday, aluminum rose sharply in the inner and outer trading period. Lun Aluminum closed yesterday at US $1649 / ton, down 0.96%, or US $16 / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract rose 0.28%, up 40 yuan / ton, to close at 14255 yuan / ton. The dollar index rose 0.31 per cent to 96.785.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of July 9, 1400 Beijing time, there were a total of 12.042 million confirmed cases and 549500 deaths worldwide. A total of 3.055 million cases have been confirmed in the United States. (bearish) 2) Bureau of Statistics: China's industrial producer price index (PPI) fell 3% in June from a year earlier, with an expected decline of 3.2% and a previous decline of 3.7%. (Lido) 3) Bureau of Statistics: China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.5% in June from a year earlier, with an expected increase of 2.5% and a previous increase of 2.4%. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) Rio Tinto (RioTinto) said on Thursday that it would close its New Zealand aluminum smelter because of high costs and difficult market conditions. The decision put more than 1000 jobs at risk and dealt a heavy blow to New Zealand's power giant. Electrolytic aluminum: on July 9, SMM statistics showed that the weekly inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China decreased by 7000 tons to 712000 tons, and the number of inventory days reached a new low. (Lido) 3) Aluminum bars: the inventory of aluminum bars in East China has increased by 900 tons to 72300 tons compared with last Thursday. Inventory in Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanchang declined, while inventory in Foshan and Huzhou increased, with a large increase in inventory in Foshan. (bearish) 3) LME will introduce new rules to disclose hidden inventory, which will help people understand metal deposits outside LME warehouses and increase market transparency. (neutral) 4) Chinalco Guinean alumina project successfully passed the examination of the Guinean government. (neutral)
Before noon yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 14520 RMB14540 / ton, and the price in Wuxi was between 14530Mel 14550 RMB / ton, which was nearly 190 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous day. The price in Hangzhou is between 14520 Mel 14540 yuan / ton. In the morning, the supply of goods in the market is extremely tight, the number of consignors overwhelmingly exceeds that of shippers, and the price of the holder is firm and the shipment is smooth, but the market is still unsatisfactory because of the shortage of goods. Although a large family normally announces the purchase plan, but from the price point of view, it is expected that the actual transaction is not much. Yesterday, the downstream was mainly on demand, and the sharp rise in aluminum prices restrained its willingness to receive goods. The overall transaction in East China is poor. In the afternoon, aluminum shock uplink, East China holder quotation span is large, between 14560Mel 14600 yuan / ton, the price of water on the disk is between 60Mel 80 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream. This morning, spot transactions were concentrated around 120 yuan / ton of rising water in the same month.
Summary: from a macro point of view, the recovery of the domestic economic situation is obvious, the PPI index has changed from a decline to an increase, the decline narrowed compared with the same period last year, and the consumer price index has also increased over the same period last year. From a fundamental point of view, yesterday, SMM statistics electrolytic aluminum social inventory continued to decline slightly, the spot market supply is very tight, short-term electrolytic aluminum price fundamentals still get strong support, we need to continue to pay attention to the demand changes in the downstream aluminum processing industry of electrolytic aluminum, as well as the transport impact brought about by recent floods.
