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[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Raw material prices rose slightly and trading conditions of electrolytic aluminum were still tight.
Jul 2,2020 09:58CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

July 2 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday inside and outside the plate metal aluminum rose, Lun aluminum closed at 1623.5 US dollars / ton, up 0.34%, up 5.50 US dollars / ton, Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract rose 40 yuan / ton to close at 13975 yuan / ton, up 0.29%. The dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.153.

Macro aspects: 1) as of around 16:10 on July 1, Beijing time, there were a total of 10.4858 million confirmed cases and 511500 deaths worldwide. Of these, 2.6365 million were confirmed in the United States, 1.402 million in Brazil, 653500 in Russia and 585500 in India. (bearish) 2) EIA crude oil stocks in the United States fell by 7.195 million barrels in the week to June 26, and are expected to decline by 710000 barrels, compared with an increase of 1.442 million barrels. After the release of EIA data, US and cloth oil futures rose slightly, both up more than 1%, of which WTI crude oil was at US $39.77 per barrel. (Lido) 3) the final PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States in June was 49.8, with an expected value of 49.6, compared with the previous value of 49.6. The euro zone's manufacturing PMI finished at 47.4 in June, with a forecast of 46.9. 4) the National standing Committee: allow local government special bonds to reasonably support small and medium-sized banks to replenish capital; issue laws and regulations to guarantee the payment of small and medium-sized enterprises and safeguard their legitimate rights and interests; increase the opening of national high-tech zones, encourage various forms of cooperation with foreign parks. (lidocaine)

Fundamentals: 1) China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: a meeting on the implementation of national standards for recycled copper and aluminum raw materials will be held, and the identification of import and export qualification will be launched soon. (neutral) 2) London Metal Exchange (LME) data released on Tuesday showed that Lun aluminum stocks fell back to 1642600 tons. Last week, the exchange's aluminium inventories peaked at more than 1.65 million tonnes, a new high in more than three years. Aluminium inventories on the exchange have rebounded from below 1m tonnes since late March, with a cumulative increase of nearly 70 per cent. Data released last week showed that Shanghai aluminum inventories fell for 14 weeks as of June 24, with weekly inventories falling 6.28% to 223715 tons, setting a new low since January 17. 3) Alumina: there was active trading in the market yesterday, mainly due to the need for a deal. Southwest China actively purchased alumina spot, and there were also large-scale transactions between large households in Shanxi, resulting in a steady rise in alumina prices. 4) passenger Association: the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the fourth week of June was 51600, down 37% from the same period last year, and the weekly growth rate was also down 6% from the same period in May, and the rate of recovery at the end of the month was slow. (bullish)

Spot side: yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai is between 14340 and 14350 yuan / ton, the spot price in Wuxi is between 14360 and 14380 yuan / ton, which is nearly 200 yuan / ton higher than the previous day's price, and the spot price in Wuxi is relatively tight and high in Shanghai. The spot price in Hangzhou is between 14360 and 14370 yuan / ton. A large buyer planned to purchase more than 10,000 tons in East China yesterday, the price is reasonable, the shipper is OK, the middleman is relatively less willing to receive the goods, and the transaction between the buyer and the seller is mediocre. Downstream yesterday, mainly on-demand procurement, due to a large increase in aluminum prices, the enthusiasm to buy goods is not high. The overall transaction in East China was mediocre yesterday. Aluminum shock uplink in the afternoon, the holder quoted price near 14350 yuan / ton, to the disk surface rising water around 160yuan / ton, the market light almost no deal. This morning, spot transactions focused on rising water around 150 yuan / ton in the same month.

Summary: from a macro point of view, in foreign countries, due to the impact of the epidemic, the manufacturing PMI index in Europe and the United States in June is basically flat, still below the rise and fall line. On the whole, China is dominated by a sound and loose monetary policy. From a fundamental point of view, in terms of raw materials, the turnover of alumina in the upper reaches of the river was good yesterday, and the price of alumina rose steadily and slightly, and the price of pre-baked anode in Shandong also ushered in a small rise, giving certain support to the price of electrolytic aluminum in the short term. superimposed by the current tight spot market, aluminum prices still maintain a high concussion trend. But in the long run, the fundamental weakening factors still exist, for the medium-and long-term aluminum price trend SMM to maintain the early judgment.

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