Minutes of 5.20 SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting
Disk: on Wednesday, the 2007 contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Company opened at 12830 yuan / ton in the morning, closed at 12875 yuan / ton during the day, and rose slightly upwards in the night market to close at 12955 yuan / ton. On Wednesday, Lun Aluminum opened at 1485.5 US dollars / ton in the morning, running in a narrow range from Asia to Europe, crude oil rose in the US market, and Lun Aluminum followed other metals in the outer disk, closing at 1515 US dollars / ton, up 1.78 per cent.
Macro: (1) overseas, the Fed said in the minutes of its April meeting that the new crown epidemic caused the economy to face "extraordinary" uncertainty in the medium term and posed a serious threat to the economy. At the same time, the Fed was also worried about the risks to financial stability (bearish); EIA crude oil inventory changes fell to a 20-week low of 4.983 million barrels to 526.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.9%. (2) domestically, the third session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee will open at 3 pm on May 21 in the Great Hall of the people and close on May 27. Passenger car retail sales picked up significantly in May, and the year-on-year sales decline narrowed to 3% in the second week.
Fundamentals: (1) in terms of alumina, the spot market is light, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, and the unheard scale just needs to be closed. The weighted price of SMM alumina region is 2206 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous day. (2) in terms of aluminum bars, the center of gravity of processing fees moved down yesterday, and the price of Guangdong sticks dropped significantly. The initial self-quoted price varied from 650 won to 750 yuan per ton, and the automobile quotation varied from 750 to 850 yuan per ton. The demand was poor, and the consignor lowered the price one after another. The low price of the big stick fell around 600 yuan / ton, while the small stick remained above 700 yuan / ton, and the overall trading was in general (bad luck), and the price of the big stick fell by around 600 yuan / ton, while the small stick remained above 700 yuan / ton, and the overall trading was not good. (3) inventory, today's SMM statistics domestic aluminum bar social inventory of 92800 tons, down 20, 000 tons compared with last Thursday, mainly due to the low arrival of goods in Foshan and other places and good consumer demand.
Spot: a small amount of spot prices in Wuxi, Shanghai, were between 13490 and 13510 yuan / ton on Thursday morning, with more inquiries and receivers in the morning, but the actual transaction was less, because the market performance was more and less. Under the background of higher aluminum futures, the price quoted by the holder began to focus on 13510 murals 13540 yuan / ton, the average price rose near 335 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the rising water was between 200 million yuan / ton. In the case of the expansion of aluminum futures back structure, the spot water continued to rise. The market middleman's enthusiasm for receiving goods has not diminished, the holder's performance is high, and the market transaction is very active. Due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the mood of receiving goods downstream has been frustrated and there is not much to buy. Around 200 yuan / ton of spot water this morning, the liquidity adequacy of aluminum ingots rebounded due to the increase in shipments from some aluminum plants and the import of some aluminum ingots.
Conclusion: the two sessions of the whole country will be held this week, and the macro expectations are expected to give a boost to non-ferrous materials, and the continued removal of fundamentals will also support Shanghai Aluminum. It is difficult for Shanghai Aluminum to narrow rapidly in the first week after the change of the month, and it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks in the short term. Need to continue to pay attention to the release of macro signals.
(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)