Summary of 5.15 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Market: Shanghai Aluminum main Company 2007 contract opened at 12540 yuan / ton in the morning, long positions continued to increase positions to 12630 yuan / ton before noon, closed at 12600 yuan / ton during the day, increased positions in night trading, closed slightly back to 12560 yuan / ton, and finished delivery of 2005 contract on Friday. It closed at 13015 yuan / ton, rising 155yuan / ton in the day, and the settlement price was 13035 yuan / ton. On Friday, Lun Aluminum opened at $1477 / ton in the morning, closing down $1460 / ton, down $16 / ton, or 1.08%, mainly short positions.
Macro: (1) overseas, the United States announced on Friday night that its retail sales fell 16.4% month-on-month in April and industrial output fell 11.2% month-on-month, both the largest decline in history. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said that US GDP could easily shrink by 20% in the second quarter. (2) on the domestic side, the industrial added value of China's large-scale industries increased by 3.9% in April compared with the same period last year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.27%. From January to April, 3.54 million new urban jobs were created, 15000 less than the same period last year (negative).
Fundamentals: (1) in terms of aluminum bars, the initial quotation of processing fees in Foshan area rose on Friday, with a low price of 740 million yuan / ton, and a high automobile price of 850 million yuan / ton. Aluminum bars in circulation increased significantly, and some consignors adjusted prices actively to ship goods. (2) downstream, SMM completed weekly research, the start-up of each processing plate is stable, and it still leads the entire downstream consumption of aluminum with bright spots such as construction and medicine, while consumption of air-conditioning foil and 5G communication base stations is on the rise. On the one hand, most of the existing orders of corresponding profiles and aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises can cover the whole of May, and there has been no significant change this week. On the other hand, for the relatively scattered product structure, especially for some plate, strip and foil enterprises that account for a large proportion of exports, although they try their best to adjust the product structure, but the demand does not grow synchronously, the inventory of finished products will increase, and there will be a risk of production reduction due to the decline in orders, which may occur as early as the end of May.
Spot: on Friday morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai was between 13000 and 13020 yuan / ton, but buyers and sellers hesitated early in the morning, showing that there were not many transactions. With the announcement of the purchase plan by a large family, the market transaction heat gradually increased. The spot price began to concentrate at 13020 Mel 13040 yuan / ton. At this time, there were a large number of receivers and obviously more than shippers. The transaction between the two sides was very active, and the market atmosphere turned weak after 11: 00. The transaction price is concentrated in 13000 murals, 13020 yuan / ton, and the discount before noon is concentrated in between 20% and 20% of the month. Dealings between traders are very good. Due to the approach of the weekend, downstream normal stock, pick up goods is OK. The overall transaction in East China is better.
Conclusion: the two sessions of the whole country will be held this week, and the macro expectations are expected to give a boost to non-ferrous metals, and the fundamentals continue to go to the warehouse to form support for Shanghai Aluminium. It is difficult for the price gap to narrow rapidly in the first week after the month change, and it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks in the short term. Need to continue to pay attention to the release of macro signals.
(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)