5.12 minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting
Disk: overnight Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract slightly opened at 12420 yuan / ton, night fluctuation range is limited, futures price in 12450 yuan / ton first-line shock, morning breakthrough rose to 12550 yuan / ton around, continue to operate in the afternoon, the last trading volume rose to 12535 yuan / ton, up 0.84%, trading volume decreased to 83000 hands, position volume increased by 142000 hands; Overnight aluminum opened at $1487.5 / ton, opened low and walked high in the Asian session, fell back after the failure of the impact of $1500 / ton, and fluctuated from the European market to the United States, closing at $1496.5 / ton, up 30%.
Macro: (1) Fed officials play down negative interest rate expectations in the market. Atlanta Fed president says negative interest rates are not a good choice in times of crisis. Chicago Fed president also believes that the United States is not expected to implement negative interest rates (Lido); (2) Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary unilateral cut of 1 million barrels a day in June, which would reduce oil production to its lowest level in 18 years. In addition, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates will cut production by an additional 80, 000 barrels a day and 100000 barrels a day in June, respectively. China will release inflation data for April, as demand weakens due to the impact of the new crown epidemic. CPI growth in April is expected to slow further to 3.7%, while CPI decline is expected to expand to 2.5% (bearish). (4) if the epidemic continues to spread overseas, China's car sales could fall by up to 25 per cent in 2020 (bearish); (5). Coal consumption in China's power plants has continued to rise, up nearly 1/3 from a year earlier, reaching a new high since mid-January (Lido); (6). The Association of Construction Machinery Industries: sales of excavators in China rose 60 per cent in April from a year earlier (Lido).
Fundamentals: (1) the transaction scale of alumina spot market expanded on Monday, and electrolytic aluminum was actively purchased in the north and southwest of China (Lido); (2) SMM statistics showed that the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumer areas in China was 1.102 million tons, which was 70000 tons lower than that of the previous week. (3) the week before last, 140600 tons of aluminum ingots and 28800 tons of aluminum bars were shipped out of storage. Due to the May Day holiday during the week, the month-on-month figure was slightly lower than that of the previous week. The aluminum price increased again by 190 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year (Lido /); (4). Due to the rise in aluminum prices, the price of scrap aluminum shipments continued to remain strong, but shipments are still relatively positive (bearish); (5) Guangzhou Investment New material South Aluminum processing in April sales and foreign trade export orders hit an all-time high (Lido aluminum processing).
Spot: Shanghai Wuxi market spot price first suppressed and then rose, the holder quotation concentrated in 13000-13020 yuan / ton, the spot price rose 180 yuan / ton compared with last Friday, the plate rose between 70-90 yuan / ton. The holder delivers the goods more actively, the middleman receives the goods normally, a big household carries out the purchase plan normally, the buyer and seller deal fairly well, but because the period aluminum is stronger, the actual transaction promotion discount has the obvious decline compared with the previous two days. Downstream on-demand purchase of goods, due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the willingness to replenish goods is not strong. It is expected that the spot in East China is up about 50 yuan / ton today.
Summary: under the background of domestic macro improvement, the fundamentals see that electrolytic aluminum continues to be strong to give strong support to the short-term aluminum price, and it is expected that the aluminum price will remain on the strong side before the exchange month, and the back price gap has a further widening trend in recent months, while the spot price may be narrowed due to the rise in absolute prices. There is a need to keep an eye on the impact of short-term sentiment on the futures market in the near future.
(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)