4.30 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: yesterday the dollar index closed at 99.517, down 0.457%, or 0.46%, to close at the fourth consecutive negative; Lun aluminum closed at $1504 / ton, up or down flat; Shanghai aluminum 2006 contract closed yesterday at 12585 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, up 0.8%, closed at the small positive line, high 12700 yuan / ton recovered most of the decline since March 18. Macro view: 1) Real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of about 06:30 Beijing time on April 30, a total of 3187919 cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed worldwide, with a total of 226771 deaths. There have been more than 60,000 new crown deaths in the United States. More than 1.03 million cases were confirmed. (bearish) 2) the first quarter of the United States actual GDP annualized rate of the initial value (%), the previous value: 2.1, expected:-4, announced:-4.8. Real domestic GDP was well below the previous level in the first quarter, recording the biggest quarterly decline since 2009. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on April 30, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China was further consolidated, the order of production and life was restored quickly, and the production and operation activities of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries continued to improve. Manufacturing PMI was 50.8 per cent, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.2 per cent, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; and the composite PMI output index was 53.4 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The 17th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress (NPC) adopted a decision on the timing of the third session of the 13th NPC on the 29th. According to the decision, the third session of the 13th National people's Congress will be held in Beijing on May 22, 2020. (neutral) fundamentals: 1) due to the marginal improvement in market demand, alumina prices bottomed out, rising nearly 58 yuan / ton this week from last week, feedback to the aluminum price to contribute about 112 yuan / ton cost support. The follow-up price change trend still needs to pay attention to the demand side, and continue to pay attention to the raw material inventory level and stock willingness of the electrolytic aluminum plant. Henan Gongyi area due to the local electrolytic aluminum inventory has been greatly reduced to less than 100000 tons, while the local plate and foil factory demand is strong, spot water has exceeded 200 yuan / ton. The Ministry of Transport issued a notice saying that with effect from 00:00 on May 6, 2020, toll roads approved by law will be restored to tolls (including toll bridges and tunnels). It is expected that the cost of follow-up logistics will rise to a certain extent, mainly reflected in the increase in freight in long-distance bus transportation. However, at the same time, considering that logistics is also greatly affected by the epidemic, the high-speed cancellation of toll logistics companies have not completely made a profit, so the increase in external fleet costs is relatively limited, the impact of their own fleet logistics costs will be more obvious. Spot side: yesterday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 12760-12770 yuan / ton, spot price rose 180 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, disk rising water concentrated in 60-80 yuan / ton, the morning market trading is more active, the holder shipment is active, the middleman is also more willing to receive the goods, 10: 30 aluminum all the way up, the holder quotation began to focus on 12800-12810 yuan / ton. However, in the later stage, the transaction heat of the market fell back, and after the sharp rise in aluminum, the shippers were hesitant to ship the goods. Although the middlemen had the demand to receive the goods, it was difficult to close the transaction at this time. Due to the proximity of the May Day holiday, there is a demand for goods downstream on the same day, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods has been improved compared with the previous two days. Summary: at present, the domestic epidemic situation is basically under control, the macro atmosphere has improved, and the arrival and supply of aluminum ingots on the supply and demand side have decreased in the short term. Under the background of gradual improvement in terminal consumption, the demand for goods in advance of May Day has surged. It is expected that spot and futures aluminum prices will remain strong and fluctuate before the festival, and the scope for decline will be limited. Pay attention to the possible collection and storage related news in other provinces in the later stage. In addition, during the May Day holiday, the outer disk is operating as usual, and the inner disk is closed, paying attention to the possible impact of heavy news during the holiday period on the post-holiday aluminum price and the driving effect of foreign aluminum prices on domestic aluminum prices.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)